SERIOUSLY, what is up with my bad luck?!?!

The last month I've had little to no GOOD luck when betting. I've never been on the right side of the 3 goal comebacks in ice hockey, while I've lost 3 of those. My parlays get screwed up by stuff like this, and overtime losses. The "safe bets" in MLB turns out to be not so safe and I ALWAYS lose by like 1 point. Today and yesterday, I lost two parlays with HUGE money in the LAST games to shit like this. One 6 game parlay today got F'ed when Phillies lost to Giants, and one 8 game parlay got F'ed yesterday when Celtics lost in NBA.

And that's just a small part of the shit I've been facing this last 30 days. What should I do!? I can't stand the frustration anymore, but I don't wanna give up gambling, because I still love it.

Without exaggerating, I'd say I have had like 95% BAD luck. And with bad and good luck I mean like comebacks, referee screw ups, overtime losses/wins and stuff like that.

What should I do to break this bad trend? Any suggestions?

Quit betting parlays.

But parlays are like the only way to make a profit out of those -180 games..... :(

Keep your composure and do your homework...Trust me I've been there man.

Even just this week on Sunday I was -3000 now im +2830.

Keep your focus and definitely don't chase with parlays.  I've been up that road before it only makes the situation worse.

That's the source of your problem....Check around. The top cappers on this board usually avoid anything over -125.

Thanks for the answers guys.   I made a list that I'm gonna use, and everytime I bet I'm gonna go step-by-step following this list to make sure I don't do anything stupid.  Anything I could add to it?

1. No parlays
2. Research
3. Look for other people's opinions.
4. Nothing below -125

One more piece of advice that even I need to start listening to.....

Limit your plays to the best value you see on the board.  I've been playing around 12-15 a day.  Just because there is a day game doesn't mean you have to play it.

I may be up this week, but if I continue to play the board it'll lead to a downfall sooner or later.

good tips guys.

Hmm, one more thing, I'm new to baseball and I wanna learn more about the game, and it's kinda hard to recognize a good or a bad pitcher, cause atm they all look the same to me. I know I'll learn in time, but anything that could help speed up the learning process will be greatly appreciated. :)

One more quick tip about pitching/hitting matchups before I go to bed....

Pitching.....Check their road/home stats. You can make some serious coin off this.  Couple guys off the top of my head last season were E Santana (Angels) and W Rodriguez (Astros).  Thee difference was like day and night.  Guy can have an 8.00 ERA on the road and 2.00 at home. (Wandy actually again this year in a short season has .98 ERA at home 7.20 ERA on the road)

Hitting.....Keep this relatively short because it's simple.  Sometimes teams just tend not not hit lefties well.  Make sure to check the discrepancy between their batting averages against right/left handed pitching.

Gotta run

Thank you. :)  Updated my list.

1. No parlays
2. Research
3. Look for other people's opinions.
4. Nothing -125
5. Don't bet too many games.
6. Don't bet when little is known about the pitchers.

One last thing- I play only dogs, so it doesn't apply to me- but if you're gonna lay chalk, I don't know that -125 would be my absolute cutoff- there are plenty of guys here making money laying more than that- SELECTIVELY- not my style- but wouldn't make it a "rule".  Maybe some of the guys who play favs can help here.

Ok, I can put it in parenthesis. ;)

Actually, "wise guys" and "sharps" will limit their plays to nothing over -160, not -125 (at least from my understanding). There sometimes will be value in a -150 line. Here's another tip that I personally like. If the ML is at -200 or something really high (for example), bet it so that it will be "Team X -1". You can do this by staggering your bets between the RL and ML to make it -1 (you will push if your team wins by only one run). This will significantly cut down your juice. There have been multiple threads around here about how to make your bet a "Team X -1" bet, but if you need me to explain it to you, feel free to ask.

highside, thanks for the answer. I looked around but didn't find any thread, so I'd be grateful if you explaned. :)

The first month of Bases is tough. Keep your chin up, and lots of good advice in this thread above........

GL Sunday

So let's use Toronoto (Halladay) as an example tomorrow. I currently show odds of Toronoto -160 on the ML and -1.5 +133 on the RL. The ML has too much juice, but let's just say you hate betting on RLs like me. So let's stagger the bets to make it Toronto -1! You do this by making two separate bets: one on the RL and one on the ML (both on Toronto). The amount you bet on the RL is equal to the amount you would WIN by betting on the ML. I did the math already for you, so let's assume your standard bet size is $100. You would place a bet of $61.54 on the ML at -160 (to win $38.46) and that same amount of $38.46 on the RL at +133 (to win $51.15). Note that the amount of these two bets equal your normal bet size of $100 ($61.54 + $38.46).

So what happens if Toronto wins by more than one run tomorrow? You win $38.46 + $51.15 = $89.61. What happens if Toronto only wins by one run? Your ML bet wins, but your RL bet loses. Your ML bet won you $38.46, but this is the same amount you bet on the RL and lost, so you "PUSH". If Toronto straight up loses, you lose your normal bet of $100.

Hope this clears up how this works. Note that this also works in hockey, if you bet that. Also notice the huge juice reduction if Toronto wins by more than one run: you bet $100 to win $89.61, or -112. Only drawback is that if Toronto beats them by one run, you will be kicking yourself for not betting the ML in the first place.

And to reinforce the above, NO parlays and NO teasers (in other sports).

Thank you VERY much for that explanation, highside. Really appreciated.

Wow, all the good advice in this thread makes me wonder why on earth I started betting baseball before learning the basics. But on the other hand, if I'm not betting and have no favorite team, it's hard to get into the sports.

Anyway, I'm starting fresh now, and we'll see in a couple of weeks if I have gotten any smarter. ;)

And feel free to post any more useful advice. Even the smallest advice could be a lifesaver!

Thanks, again.

An oh, for those who are interested, I've found some good advice at docsports.com :)

Hmm, here's another good question:

What should I consider more than starting pitcher?

You want to talk about bad luck?

I just lost Padres in a 4 teamer, SF/PHI u7.5 in a 5 teamer, BOS 2H u93 in a 2 teamer, Angels -1.5 by 1 run in a 4 teamer and 2 teamer...I got all the other picks right and took Padres, SF/PHI Under, BOS 2H Under and Angels RL separately and I lose all 4...I bet a blind noob could pick 4 random picks and still go 2/4 yet I take these "good" bets and can't fucking hit 1...

This is after I lost a 7-teamer with the Pistons ML in Game 1 and Celts ML in Games 4 and 6....