Posted:
#1426
Your winning ways never cease Herbals !! 
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September Dogs - Starting with $4k
Posted:
#1427
Hey guys, sorry I've been absent in the playoffs. I did well, but didn't have time to post.
The game now is difficult to prediction, but my lean.....a sort of weak lean.....is on the Dodgers:
Here are some important factors to consider:
*https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DAstros%20and%20A%20and%20D%20and%20date%3E%3D20160918%29%20as%20%22The%20Astros%20are%205-15%20AGAINST%20since%20Sep%2018%2C%202016%20as%20a%20road%20dog%22&plot_PL=1
*https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DAstros%20and%20D%20and%20date%3E%3D20160907%29%20as%20%22The%20Astros%20are%208-21%20AGAINST%20since%20Sep%2007%2C%202016%20as%20a%20dog%22&plot_PL=1
*https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DAstros%20and%20D%20and%20date%3E%3D20160907%29%20as%20%22The%20Astros%20are%208-21%20AGAINST%20since%20Sep%2007%2C%202016%20as%20a%20dog%22&plot_PL=1
*KEY SYSTEM: https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=%28playoffs%3D1%20and%20tS%28W%2CN%3D3%29%3E%3D2%20and%20oS%28W%2CN%3D3%29%3C%3D2%29%20as%20%22Since%202004%2C%20in%20the%20playoffs%2C%20a%20hot%20team%20off%20of%202%2B%20straight%20wins%20in%20their%20last%203%20games%20is%20243-197%2055.2%25%20%2B50.57%20units%20SU%20%2B9.1%25%20roi%20when%20facing%20a%20cold%20team%20off%20of%202%20or%20fewer%20wins%20in%20their%20last%203%20games.%22&plot_PL=1 (Take the Dodgers)
+
+
2 other pretty big systems FOR the Dodgers (systems, not trends)
...but then we have this beast of a system liking the Astros:
https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=%28playoffs%3D1%20and%20series%20games%3E4%20and%20p%3AL%20and%20season%3E2004%29%20as%20%22Since%202008%2C%20Championship%20Series%20or%20World%20Series%20teams%20off%20of%20a%20loss%20are%2093-62%20%2B29.58%20units%20%28%2B15.9%25%20roi%29%20SU...on%20the%20blind.%22&plot_PL=1
Although....if you dissect that one, it completely flips to 2-9 SU (+42.5% roi fade ML / +84.7% roi fade RL) looking only at World Series games, later in the series, road teams only averaging at least a half a run negative run per game SU margin in their last 4 games. The Astros fit that bill as a fade.
0
Posted:
#1428
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.25 +124 WINNER!
vs Chicago Cubs
$154 to win $190.96
Current Bankroll: $13,807.95
from $4000 (+245.20 units)
Sorry again, was afk for a while and never updated after that last win. That win brought the record to a new all time high for the thread (since 9/6/2012).
Whatever you bet, you doubled your money if you tailed all of it, and then some. MLB is coming to an end now, but I'll most likely be back next year doing the same thing here.
0
Posted:
#1430
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:
For today, I like the Dodgers, but really don't want to force a bet here. The Dodgers might be a trap and we're on the public side, so
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.25 +116
vs Houston Astros
$15 to win $17.40
Small "Beer Money" Play
Read the writeup in the other post (2 back)
0
Posted:
#1432
Quote Originally Posted by MONEYMISFITS:
you have no idea how happy i am to see you on my boys in blue
you have no idea how happy i am to see you on my boys in blue
cheers and good luck to the dodgers!!!!!!!
and good luck to the dodgers!!!!!!!Glad it was Beer money :) They tried....maybe :P
Season Ends!
Current Bankroll: $13,792.95
from $4000 (+244.82 units)
Started thread in 2013.
Profit this season was +71.01 units
See you all next year, hopefully in April 2018 we'll continue. First month is great for dogs traditionally.
0
Posted:
#1437
Just a note:
Originally the thread was dogs only, but the primary objective that is rooted from is the premise:
*We are dealing with professional athletics organizations. There shouldn't be a need to lay the chalk really ever. Of course, that is a very loose theory and concept which isn't true in the real world; however, with outliers within the greater sample size filtered out (matchups without any parity. eg. A struggling organization that drafted poorly vs. an ace squad properly funded and managed team does happen, but I say they're outlier situations we're better off avoiding or taking the long shots).
*We are dealing with professional athletics organizations. There shouldn't be a need to lay the chalk really ever. Of course, that is a very loose theory and concept which isn't true in the real world; however, with outliers within the greater sample size filtered out (matchups without any parity. eg. A struggling organization that drafted poorly vs. an ace squad properly funded and managed team does happen, but I say they're outlier situations we're better off avoiding or taking the long shots).
With that said, we will always have a lean towards dogs, but the core idea is to get plus odds assuming all things are created equal and for the interest of MLB as a business and profit making organization: parity within the league is always going to be paramount. Therefore, it would be wise to assume when in doubt: these are professional athletes and the games should, by and large go 50/50...so at a 50% win rate, you're making money on dogs.
Again, very very loose theory and borderline just a person preference with some logic backing it.
Again, very very loose theory and borderline just a person preference with some logic backing it.
Every bet should be plus odds though...parlays, over unders with plus odds, dogs, runlines on favorites, asian handicaps, etc.
I hope you all have been well. Let's rock.
Let's rock...
0
Posted:
#1438
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:
Just a note:Originally the thread was dogs only, but the primary objective that is rooted from is the premise: *We are dealing with professional athletics organizations. There shouldn't be a need to lay the chalk really ever. Of course, that is a very loose theory and concept which isn't true in the real world; however, with outliers within the greater sample size filtered out (matchups without any parity. eg. A struggling organization that drafted poorly vs. an ace squad properly funded and managed team does happen, but I say they're outlier situations we're better off avoiding or taking the long shots).With that said, we will always have a lean towards dogs, but the core idea is to get plus odds assuming all things are created equal and for the interest of MLB as a business and profit making organization: parity within the league is always going to be paramount. Therefore, it would be wise to assume when in doubt: these are professional athletes and the games should, by and large go 50/50...so at a 50% win rate, you're making money on dogs.Again, very very loose theory and borderline just a person preference with some logic backing it. Every bet should be plus odds though...parlays, over unders with plus odds, dogs, runlines on favorites, asian handicaps, etc.I hope you all have been well. Let's rock.Let's rock...
Fuckín' Shack is back. Just a note:Originally the thread was dogs only, but the primary objective that is rooted from is the premise: *We are dealing with professional athletics organizations. There shouldn't be a need to lay the chalk really ever. Of course, that is a very loose theory and concept which isn't true in the real world; however, with outliers within the greater sample size filtered out (matchups without any parity. eg. A struggling organization that drafted poorly vs. an ace squad properly funded and managed team does happen, but I say they're outlier situations we're better off avoiding or taking the long shots).With that said, we will always have a lean towards dogs, but the core idea is to get plus odds assuming all things are created equal and for the interest of MLB as a business and profit making organization: parity within the league is always going to be paramount. Therefore, it would be wise to assume when in doubt: these are professional athletes and the games should, by and large go 50/50...so at a 50% win rate, you're making money on dogs.Again, very very loose theory and borderline just a person preference with some logic backing it. Every bet should be plus odds though...parlays, over unders with plus odds, dogs, runlines on favorites, asian handicaps, etc.I hope you all have been well. Let's rock.Let's rock...
The pen is mightier than the pigs
0
Posted:
#1439
Stl. Cardinals -1.25 +101
vs KC Royals
$15 to win $15.15
MLB TREND OF THE DAY: Road Favorites over -147 since 2010 (total<10.5) have gone 100-41 +31.32 units (Take the Cardinals ; consider Indians, Phillies and Red Sox as well today)
MLB TREND OF THE DAY: Road Favorites over -147 since 2010 (total<10.5) have gone 100-41 +31.32 units (Take the Cardinals ; consider Indians, Phillies and Red Sox as well today)
Current Bankroll: $13,792.95
from $4000 (+244.82 units)
0
Posted:
#1447
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:
Stl. Cardinals -1.25 +101 WINNER!
vs KC Royals
$15 to win $15.15
MLB TREND OF THE DAY: Road Favorites over -147 since 2010 (total<10.5) have gone 100-41 +31.32 units (Take the Cardinals ; consider Indians, Phillies and Red Sox as well today)
MLB TREND OF THE DAY: Road Favorites over -147 since 2010 (total<10.5) have gone 100-41 +31.32 units (Take the Cardinals ; consider Indians, Phillies and Red Sox as well today)
Kicking things off right with a nice big blowout win for the Cardies 8-3 on the road....
Current Bankroll: $13,808.10
from $4000 (+245.20 units)
Will post in a bit if I have anything...
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