Posted:
#1476
Great Capping! I love the info also, thanks for taking the time to post!
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September Dogs - Starting with $4k
Posted:
#1479
Quote Originally Posted by SBT:
Didn't Washington only won by 1? At -1.25, wouldn't that be a loser?
Well I got it wrong again. It is only a half lose. Whole point of the -1.25. Anyone want to double check this over the last 4 plays or so?
Current Bankroll: $13,522.10
from $4000 (+238.05 units)
0
Posted:
#1481
For Today:
Boston Red Sox -1.25 +117
vs Tampa Bay Rays
$250 to win $292.50
vs Tampa Bay Rays
$250 to win $292.50
MLB TREND OF THE DAY: https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=%28month%20%3D%208%20and%20H%20and%20line%3E%3D110%20and%20p%3AH%20and%20p%3Amargin%20%3C%202%20and%2010%20%3E%3D%20p%3Aruns%20%3E%202%20and%20n%3Aseries%20game%21%3D1%29%20as%20%221.%20It%20is%20August.%202.%20You%20have%20a%20home%20dog%20of%20%2B110%20or%20more%203.%20Off%20of%20a%20home%20loss%20or%201%20run%20squeak%20by%20win%20where%203%20to%2010%20runs%20were%20scored.%204.%20Not%20the%20last%20game%20of%20a%20series.%20This%20team%20comes%20out%20with%20a%20false%20sense%20of%20self%20and%20a%20resulting%20flat%20performance%20next%20game%20going%20just%2069-168%20%2829.1%25%29%20SU%20-75.15%20units%20and%20a%20huge%20%2B19.0%25%20roi%20to%20fade%22&plot_PL=1 and a huge +19.0% roi to fade (Take the Red Sox)
Sorry just a bunch of favorites checking in lately.
We'll get more dogs come September...
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Posted:
#1488
Quote Originally Posted by daebaknaja:
your Brankroll should be $13470
you lost your Redsox bet..nice try
Ugh, not 'trying' anything. I thought I had fixed that but was thinking about the Nationals play. Not trying anything. Never have or else this thread wouldn't exist probably. I fixed it. Good catch and thank you.
For today:
For today:
For today:
Houston Astros -1.25 +129
vs Los Angeles Angels
$257 to win $331.53
$257 to win $331.53
Current Bankroll: $13,470.13
from $4000 (+236.75 units)
- MLB TREND OF THE DAY: https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=%28p%3Amargin%20%3C%3D%20-4%20and%20pp%3Amargin%20%3C%3D%20-4%20and%20op%3Aruns%20%3E%207%20and%20H%20and%20125%20%3E%20line%20%3E%20-125%29%20as%20%22A%20home%20team%2C%2025%20cents%20of%20pickem%2C%20off%20of%202%2B%20games%20lost%20by%204%20or%20more%20runs%20vs.%20a%20team%20that%20just%20blasted%208%2B%20runs%20goes%2062-108%20-49.42%20units%22&plot_PL=1 (Fade the Angels)
- https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DAstros%20and%20A%20and%20F%20and%20date%3E%3D20160809%29%20as%20%22The%20Astros%20are%20100-41%20ON%20since%20Aug%2009%2C%202016%20as%20a%20road%20favorite%22&plot_PL=1
0
Posted:
#1490
Washington Nationals -0.75 +107
vs Philadelphia Phillies
$15 to win $16.05
- MLB TREND OF THE DAY: https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=%28100%3C%3Dline%3C148%20and%20H%20and%20month%3D8%20and%209%3Etotal%3E7.5%20and%20n%3Aseries%20game%3C3%20and%20series%20games%3E2%29%20as%20%22Home%20Dogs%20under%20%2B148%20in%20August%20choke%20at%2082-164%20-65.84%20units%2C%20%2B18.1%25%20roi%20since%202004%20when%20the%20total%20is%20set%20between%20the%20keys%20%289%20and%207%29.%22&plot_PL=1??????? (Fade the Phillies)
- https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=%28AF%20and%2020%3Ep%3Aruns%3E%3D15%20and%20total%3C11%29%20as%20%22Road%20Favorites%20that%20scored%2015%20to%2020%20runs%20last%20game%20go%2052-14%20%2B33.57%20units%2C%20%2B35.6%25%20roi%20SU%3B%20total%3C11%22&plot_PL=1 (Take the Nationals. Record and roi is even better on the runline)
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Posted:
#1493
Quote Originally Posted by daebaknaja:
$257 yesterday..and today $15..thats really big difference..
Although many disagree the most successful sports betters in history (Alan Boston, Billy Walters etc...) NEVER flat bet - when they have something that is more +EV they will risk more. Deck is rich dealer has a 6 and you an 11? You double down of course.$257 yesterday..and today $15..thats really big difference..
Obviously there is merit in flat betting too.
BOL HERB 
The pen is mightier than the pigs
0
Posted:
#1495
Quote Originally Posted by barneybeans:
Although many disagree the most successful sports betters in history (Alan Boston, Billy Walters etc...) NEVER flat bet - when they have something that is more +EV they will risk more. Deck is rich dealer has a 6 and you an 11? You double down of course.
Although many disagree the most successful sports betters in history (Alan Boston, Billy Walters etc...) NEVER flat bet - when they have something that is more +EV they will risk more. Deck is rich dealer has a 6 and you an 11? You double down of course.
Obviously there is merit in flat betting too.
BOL HERB
Wisdom feels one's lean is to flat bet probably. But things can be so calculated. The Nats weren't a solid bet for me so I bet them small. Maybe some of you passed and that wouldn't have been a bad move. I think you just do what works for you: that more or less being: what you can stay most consistent with. Most systems will work, and I've said before: I don't think the picking the bets part is all that difficult....I feel the emotional stuff bettors go through is where its make or break: do you operate mechanically (good) or are you down on your confidence off of a bad day or week or even whole season and change your strategy back and forth (terrible).
Consistency/Discipline and When-in-doubt, Passing are the two most crucial things I believe.
0
Posted:
#1496
Quote Originally Posted by papamo:
Hard to have any confidence in Nats right now.
Hard to have any confidence in Nats right now.
Those are the times to be bullish. I saw the public had that sentiment and I think I recall betting against a live dog there. Not the best thing to do, but I would say, one of the worst traps is taking the public dog. A line that looks so comfortable and everyone agrees; strike on the other side.
There is a real simple way to think about all of this: Everyone knows the house always wins in the long haul. Be aware that they set traps, and thus make their own wagers against the public. By looking at where the public is getting baited and going the other way, you can set up a career for yourself coat tailing the hard work of the linemakers pretty much. Many sports books are lazy and just wait for big books like Pinnacle to set the odds and then just mimic them. A lot of people don't think the house makes its own wagers and each bet gets 50/50 action. Fact is, it rarely happens and the books are betting against you almost all of the time.
0
Posted:
#1497
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:
Quote Originally Posted by papamo:
Hard to have any confidence in Nats right now.
Those are the times to be bullish. I saw the public had that sentiment and I think I recall betting against a live dog there. Not the best thing to do, but I would say, one of the worst traps is taking the public dog. A line that looks so comfortable and everyone agrees; strike on the other side.There is a real simple way to think about all of this: Everyone knows the house always wins in the long haul. Be aware that they set traps, and thus make their own wagers against the public. By looking at where the public is getting baited and going the other way, you can set up a career for yourself coat tailing the hard work of the linemakers pretty much. Many sports books are lazy and just wait for big books like Pinnacle to set the odds and then just mimic them. A lot of people don't think the house makes its own wagers and each bet gets 50/50 action. Fact is, it rarely happens and the books are betting against you almost all of the time.Hard to have any confidence in Nats right now.
So true! I also feel for the trap!
0
Posted:
#1498
For today:
Tampa Bay Rays +0.75 +112
vs Atlanta Braves
$31 to win $34.72
MLB TREND OF THE DAY: https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=%28D%20and%20220%3E%3Dline%3E%3D110%20and%20month%3D8%20and%20op%3ATLOB%3E%3D10%20and%20opp%3ATLOB%3E%3D10%29%20as%20%22In%20August%2C%20take%20an%20underdog%20between%20%2B110%20and%20%2B220%20whose%20opponent%20has%20been%20stranding%20ten%20or%20more%20runners%20in%20their%20last%20two%20or%20more%20games.%20In%20database%20history%20this%20is%20SU%3A%2060-52%20%28%2B0.0%20rpg%2C%2053.5%25%2C%20%2B30.6%25%20Roi%29%22&plot_PL=1 (Take the Rays!)
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