Quote Originally Posted by KVEGAS:
calin, quite honestly, this is absolutley THE worst idea ever on covers, everyone who knows anything about baseball is that betting on dogs selectively is THE way to win baseball wagers. the reason is that even the best teams still lose 62/162 games. that's a FACT and nothing else. In your defense, you and "GRANDMA" for that matter, are not really wasting hard earned money on these picks if any money at all, and if you are i am sure it's no more then a couple dollars a pop.
Thank you for your opinion.
You're absolutely right: best teams do lose 40% of their games. But if you look from the opposite perspective, best teams do win 60% of their games. That means value if you play the better teams at odds between -150 and + money. Of course, I'm not saying to bet all favourites regardless of their lines, but only betting favourites when the line and the situation gives you the edge. It's all about lines and timing: don't takes lines with too much juice and don't chase when the team is obviously struggling and can't hit.
I have some kind of scenario that goes with my plan of betting only favourites for 2 months: there are some good teams that perform best and home and that can be trusted to win when they start a 6 or 9 games homestand. There are a few bad teams that can be trusted to lose a lot when they start a 6 to 9 games road trip. If you are being selective about the lines you play I still think you can win some money. The books know that too but I think sometimes they emphasize too much the pitcher and this leaves some value. The starter is a key element in the game but it's not everything. Even the best pitcher can't win the game by himself, his team mates must score at least one run more than the opponent does.
If you take a step back and look at the entire picture of MLB maybe you'll see my idea is not that bad. And I think it's easier to predict a favourite win than a dog win (statistically). That's why I'm trying to predict only favourites with good value.
And to back my idea here are some real facts that happened this season:
Brewers as favs 22-11 / 66%
Twins as favs 23-13 / 63%
Tigers as favs 27-17 / 61%
Giants as favs 20-11 / 64%
Nationals as dogs 14-36 / 28% that means 72% for the opponent
Cubs as dogs 1-9 / 10% that means 90% for the opp.
Twins as dogs 12-21 / 36% that means 64% for the opp.
Athletics as dogs 15-25 / 37% that means 63% for the opp.
Indians as dogs 13-22 / 37% that means 63% for the opp.
Home vs. Road best examples:
Home:
Dodgers 25-10 / 71% value line = 1.40 / -250
Giants 22-12 / 64% value line = 1.56 / -178
Red Sox 23-10 / 69% value line = 1.44 / -227
Twins 24-13 / 64% value line = 1.56 / -178
Road:
Nationals 8-24 / 25% opponent 75% value line = 1.33 / -303
Padres 9-23 / 28% opponent 72% value line = 1.38 / -263
Orioles 9-20 / 31% opponent 69% value line = 1.44 / -227
Twins 11-21 / 34% opponent 66% value line = 1.51 / -196
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