First of all it is been my experience on the other side of the counter that
hardly anyone wins in the LT. No BS. Sportsbooks here in Vegas are always buying new TV's, promoting free contests, giving away cars, buying new computers, etc. There are not doing these activities with their own money. A casino and it's departments are built for one reason. TO TAKE YOUR MONEY. And they do, consistently.
That being said, I do feel that there is some value in betting baseball. (college football too). If you smart about it you could be one of the few who is LT profitable.
Without making my post too long... the #1 key is to not only handicap the game, but to also handicap the line or the number. The linesmakers in the present day are pretty damn good, their numbers basically determine whether a sportsbook makes a profit on a daily basis. Take 100 people who know sports (gamblers, bloggers, sportswriters, average joe) and the guy who makes the lines is the the sharpest one in the room. By a big margin. All this being said: The linesmakers still make mistakes.
Here's 2 examples. Say you have a total coin flip game. 2 pitchers who are in similar form, 2 lineups in similar form. Home teams plays well at home, Road team plays well on Road. Etc. Etc. Etc. This game should be lined -110 both ways, yet bc the Road team is a public team (yankees, Redsox, Philly, etc) or the road team's SP has had success over an extended period of years (Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay) the linesmaker is going to make the road team -125 and the home team will be +115. In this basic example, the home team is getting .25 cents of value. Bet these situations where you are getting value for LT profit.
2nd example. Last nights Yankee game. Yanks closed at -260 fav. Yanks starting their 5th starter who is subbing in for injured Sabathia. At -260 you have to win close to 3 out of every 4 wagers on the Yankees in this situation to be LT profitable. NO F'in way that is happening IMO. Handicapping this game, I came up with a number of around -180 for me to get down on the Yanks.
The other great thing about sportsbetting is it allows you an opportunity to pass. The book doesn't make you wager on every game. If they did then no one would win. If you think that the line isn't a profitable one, you can always pass. That is why most sharps do not bet -200+ baseball games. Remember we are talking about a baseball game here contested by the best players in the world. Guys who have been balling since they were 5 years old every day with incredible hand eye coordination. They are professional for a reason. It's a game anything can happen. Rain delays where the pitcher you thought would be throwing gets pulled after 2 innings because he can't warm up again, Guys who are fighting with their wives, guys who have the shits that night, guys who are hung over, a plate umpire who has a grudge against one manager, I could go on forever. And the game itself is unpredictable, the ball goes fair or foul, injuries happen, errors are committed.
In summary, betting on sports is not only handicapping the game and its contestants but also a very very complex math problem. One must handicap the number or line that the oddsmaker is presenting. It's just as important as handicapping the game. I wouldn't make a blanket statement like u did Godofyourface, such as betting on favs and winning 60% is not a winning strategy, because if you felt as a handicapper that you were getting the best of the number in each individual situation then , SURE it could be profitable. If a fav is -130 (such as the A's yesterday) and you think that they should be -155 bc of different factors (indians 7-13 last 20 games vs LH starters, hitting .226 as a team vs LH, Anderson looked great first start back off DL, etc) then place your bets!
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