Murky Monday

YTD 49-45 (+3.30)

K's 2-13 (-10.58)

Guardians ML(-135) *1.00/.74

Matz/Messick listed

Successfully avoided the Guardians trend play yesterday, let's hop back on today. They have lost b2b games only one other time this season. 

Pirates ML(-129) *.50/.39

May/Montgomery listed

The Pirates trend is alive and well. Albeit going against May who has strung together 3 straight outings. So buyer beware. Also, Montgomery is opening, and young prospect Wilber Dotel will get the bulk. Not sure what we get from him, but it's a good spot to use him. The Cards are 1-5 in their last 6, and had to travel yesterday. 

Only a half unit cause of unknown variables, but we trust the trend coming off a loss.

CWS 1st 3 ML(-110) *1.00/.91

Kochanowicz/Kay listed

Rough looking one here. Although the Sox have finally put Kay in regular routine. He's finally starting in b2b starts, and on 4 days rest where he's comfortable. 

Kochanowicz is a tough customer, he's been good. Although luck has been on his side in the first 3 this year, as his era is 3.60, with an xfip of 5.17. He doesn't induce soft contact, only 6.8%. 56.8% medium, and 36.4% hard contact in these innings. His shitty 1.5% K to walk ratio is evidence of luck as well.

The White Sox are the best hitting team in the first 3 innings. I know they weren't yesterday, but it's a new day.

FYI, bad weather is hitting the Midwest today. Tornado type stuff. The White Sox game may get delayed(good for the home team), or postponed. But the weather is looking like it's moving south.

GL

Good luck Sac.  

You can catch a good fish in murky waters now & then 

BOL today 

https://www.instagram.com/p/DXlBBFWjEiJ/?igsh=MW9kdHVieW5rczQ1cw==

You're psychic Biscuit...Saturday was fun

The Pirates this year after scoring 3 or less runs, in the following game have scored 4,8,8,7,2,4,7,8,6. For a healthy average of 6 rpg. Going over the total of 4.5 six out of 9 times.

After being shut out this year(2 times), the Pirates have scored 8 runs, and 7 runs in the following game.

Dustin May's troubles versus left handed batters is very real this year. Even in his last 3 games where he did very well overall, left handed bats have still crushed him.

The Pirates use 4 lefties and a switch hitter in most circumstances. And they have been really good vs RHP this year. They've also been very good vs May in the past.

3 concerns:

Marcel Ozuna needs to be dropped down in the lineup. Or just give him the day off today. Although he's had success vs May in the past, so maybe seeing his arm is what this 35 year old batter needs.

It's Pittsburgh's first home game back after a road trip. 6 days otr, and 7th straight game with no rest.

3. The over is a public play on this game, it has to be.

Still not enough to worry about in this instance, these Buccos are resilient after a loss.

Pirates TT O4.5(+114) *1.00/1.14

They'll only have 8 innings to get over this # I would think. But I'll take a 4-4 tie going into the 9th.

@undermysac

 GL Sac 

 Keep up the excellent work!

Cubs 1st 3 ML(-125) *1.00/.80

Cubs 1st 3 -0.5(+145) *.25/.36

Padres 1st 3 TT U 0.5(+114) *.25/.29

Boyd/Vasquez listed

That's all. Good luck 

@LuckyGuy

Tornado warnings are going off in St. Louis. I'd think that players should be concerned about family at home.

Just a thought 

"3 concerns:

Marcel Ozuna needs to be dropped down in the lineup. Or just give him the day off today. Although he's had success vs May in the past, so maybe seeing his arm is what this 35 year old batter needs."

They dropped Ozuna to 5th, moved O'hearn up to cleanup. Love it.

Lawrence relieves Montgomery, not Dotel.

This is what winning teams do, fucking with their opponent. 

I love this Pirates team