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Money Ball 5-26-2015

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Posted: #1

5-25

$249 Phillies, +154 (Gonzalez/Colon) L

$249 Giants, +113 (Lincecum/Lohse) W

$249 Diamondbacks, +152 (Anderson/Martinez) L

$242 Padres, +118 (Ross/Weaver) L

YTD 51-40, +$3,739.55 (+19.86% RoR)

5-26

$242 Twins, +132 (Buchholz/Pelfrey)

$242 Giants, -130 (Bumgarner/Garza)

Twins: I have to figure there are a heck of lot of BoSox fans out there betting on the come because I cannot believe they are backing Buchholz or their sporadic offense. Maybe it is the concept that the superior team is bound to stage a comeback. If that is the case they should read the standings. They do not have the superior team.

Giants: This is almost the opposite case. Brewers backers are putting a huge value on HFA that simply does not exist. There is simply no other explanation considering I spotted Bumgarner-Giants at -151 with a 65.9% probability of winning this game. The linemakers weren’t far off at -145 and the bettors that have driven it down are nuts in my opinion. One bad game by Alex Wood does not mean their mediocre (at best) offense for lefties is suddenly going to jump up and start bashing guys like Bumgarner.  BOL  

Sorry I am so late today but I had a neighbor with an emergency that took precedence. I will try to be much earlier tomorrow.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #3
Great stuff as always Key!

What's your read on Teheran and the Braves tonight against Kershaw?

Thanks man and BOL tonight!
 
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Posted: #4
have both of these on my card today. good luck key!
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Twins: I have to figure there are a heck of lot of BoSox fans out there betting on the come because I cannot believe they are backing Buchholz or their sporadic offense. Maybe it is the concept that the superior team is bound to stage a comeback. If that is the case they should read the standings. They do not have the superior team.





Twins were just a strong lean but pass for me early this morning, but after that BoSox line kept getting pounded and pounded, I was forced to bite. Good luck to us.
 
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Posted: #8
Remember Alex wood got scratched that game so actually got it going vs stults who is even worse than the other lefties they have faced
 
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Posted: #9
With you on the Giants. Good stuff as always Key
 
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Posted: #10
Twins look great tonight.  
 
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Posted: #11
GL Key
 
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Posted: #12
Gl and thanks
 
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Posted: #13
Key, do you have a limit as to how many plays you do in a given day?
 
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Posted: #14
Buchholz has 3 QS in a row and had given up 7 runs in those 3. The Red Sox have played the back up catcher in those 3 starts, not sure who's going to catch today. I do agree the Twins are the better tm, just wondering if Clay has found something
 
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Posted: #15
Like the Giants and Twins
 
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Posted: #16
Great stuff key. Thanks for your insightful picks and posts!
 
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Posted: #17


stack bills pal
 
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Posted: #18
Aren't the Twins getting pounded by betters today?


Last I looked Twins were at 77/23 split...and line was rising for Bo Sox....
 
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Posted: #19
Giants at an awful -180 and can't get -130 anywhere.
 
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Posted: #20
hey Key--

i respect your opinion a lot man and i had a question for you about first 5's...

yesterday i took the Giants on the First 5 innings bet which lost, only to see them erupt for 7 runs in the SIXTH against Lohse

obviously u took them full game and reaped the rewards of that 6th inning... is it just completely flawed logic by me taking the first 5 because i was betting almost solely on the pitching matchup? or is this just very results oriented thinking to think this way...

i guess im just curious why you choose to bet the full game instead of first 5 when baseball is so starting pitcher dependant.... is there more or less variance when taking the first 5? i originally thought less but now i might have changed my mind and may start betting full games...

than you k in advance for commenting
 
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Posted: #21
GL tonight Key  
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by TopHog:

Aren't the Twins getting pounded by betters today?



Boston was -120 last night and it's now -152. It's getting ridiculous.

Annoys me coz I thought I had a good price after jum[ing on Minn when it climed to +129. Now it's +140.
 
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Posted: #23
BOL Bud
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by RollingtheBones:



Boston was -120 last night and it's now -152. It's getting ridiculous.

Annoys me coz I thought I had a good price after jum[ing on Minn when it climed to +129. Now it's +140.


I meant % of bets. $$ is going to the Bo Sox
 
 
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Posted: #25
good luck
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