Hit with Pittsburgh yesterday and although it might have seemed lucky that they pulled it off they outplayed the Cubs the whole game, but just couldn't capaitalize with runners on base. The reason I love this play is Webb is getting WAY too much respect. Why the hell is Arizona (below .500 winning % on the road) a favorite @ Atlanta (.750 winning % at home)?! The obvious answer would be Brandon Webb is the reason, but has he really been that much better than Jurrjens this season? The answer is no. The only real major difference is their W/L records. Jair Jurrgens actually has a better ERA than Webb this season (only by 0.05, but still better).
Don't be one of the suckers taking a bad line because of name value, be one of the sharps realizing a flawed line and take the value with the better team getting money at home.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Atlanta Braves +110 (Webb/Jurrjens)
Hit with Pittsburgh yesterday and although it might have seemed lucky that they pulled it off they outplayed the Cubs the whole game, but just couldn't capaitalize with runners on base. The reason I love this play is Webb is getting WAY too much respect. Why the hell is Arizona (below .500 winning % on the road) a favorite @ Atlanta (.750 winning % at home)?! The obvious answer would be Brandon Webb is the reason, but has he really been that much better than Jurrjens this season? The answer is no. The only real major difference is their W/L records. Jair Jurrgens actually has a better ERA than Webb this season (only by 0.05, but still better).
Don't be one of the suckers taking a bad line because of name value, be one of the sharps realizing a flawed line and take the value with the better team getting money at home.
Very solid writeup there. Good luck tonight. I'm looking at your boys on the runline, thinking Ponson may start regressing very soon.
The line is chalky though.
As far as the Braves are concerned, I did lean that way, but the line isn't as off as you suggested it, and I could jump on the Snakes here.
Of course this is only my opinion, but Webb does get credit for a reason. Nothing strange with that really, you have a proven stud, his team steps up for him big time, and they have connected hits VERY well in this series:
Arizona have outscored Atlanta 21-7 in winning two of the first three in the series.
Arizona totaled just three runs while being swept in a three-game set
at Florida prior to visiting Atlanta.
Needless to say, they LOVE it here.
Jurrjens has been solid so far, especially at home, 4-0, 1.48 ERA, and the Braves have won 21 out of 28 at home. However, look for both of those numbers to regress in the following period. Look for both of these numbers to receive corrections.
I believe the price is correct. If I would play Arizona here I would take the -1 line.
Anyways, best of luck, great input.
Very solid writeup there. Good luck tonight. I'm looking at your boys on the runline, thinking Ponson may start regressing very soon.
The line is chalky though.
As far as the Braves are concerned, I did lean that way, but the line isn't as off as you suggested it, and I could jump on the Snakes here.
Of course this is only my opinion, but Webb does get credit for a reason. Nothing strange with that really, you have a proven stud, his team steps up for him big time, and they have connected hits VERY well in this series:
Arizona have outscored Atlanta 21-7 in winning two of the first three in the series.
Arizona totaled just three runs while being swept in a three-game set
at Florida prior to visiting Atlanta.
Needless to say, they LOVE it here.
Jurrjens has been solid so far, especially at home, 4-0, 1.48 ERA, and the Braves have won 21 out of 28 at home. However, look for both of those numbers to regress in the following period. Look for both of these numbers to receive corrections.
I believe the price is correct. If I would play Arizona here I would take the -1 line.
Personally, I like the under and in a presumably low scoring game the presence of Chipper Jones is indeed a major consideration. I think the Braves+1.5 is a good bet especially if Chipper is in the lineup.
Personally, I like the under and in a presumably low scoring game the presence of Chipper Jones is indeed a major consideration. I think the Braves+1.5 is a good bet especially if Chipper is in the lineup.
Spot on with this situation. Webb is 9-1 and shold be 10-0, but Arizona bats have gone ice cold and as we know runs win matches not pitching. Webb will give up 2-3 runs the bullpen may give up a few but the under looks solid here as Webb should contain and Jurrens will have no problems against out of sorts dibacks.
I like Atlanta solid at home with a good pitcher against the out of sorts dibacks with an equally good pitcher. GL this is deff the correct play
Spot on with this situation. Webb is 9-1 and shold be 10-0, but Arizona bats have gone ice cold and as we know runs win matches not pitching. Webb will give up 2-3 runs the bullpen may give up a few but the under looks solid here as Webb should contain and Jurrens will have no problems against out of sorts dibacks.
I like Atlanta solid at home with a good pitcher against the out of sorts dibacks with an equally good pitcher. GL this is deff the correct play
In comparing Webb to Jurrjens, ERA does not tell the whole story. Webb's WHIP shows he's the more efficient pitcher that carries less risk per inning.
Arizona or no play here...laying -110 for a pitcher that is 9-1 overall and a perfect 5-0 on the road isn't bad considering the Dbacks also have the 3rd highest scoring offense behind him. Remember, if you peel back enough, statistics can persuade you of anything...don't compare Jurrjens to Webb and think Webb is overated...Webb is clearly one of the top pitchers in baseball and Jurrjens is not even in the conversation.
I'm leaning towards no play. This is a game to watch & not to earn money on.
In comparing Webb to Jurrjens, ERA does not tell the whole story. Webb's WHIP shows he's the more efficient pitcher that carries less risk per inning.
Arizona or no play here...laying -110 for a pitcher that is 9-1 overall and a perfect 5-0 on the road isn't bad considering the Dbacks also have the 3rd highest scoring offense behind him. Remember, if you peel back enough, statistics can persuade you of anything...don't compare Jurrjens to Webb and think Webb is overated...Webb is clearly one of the top pitchers in baseball and Jurrjens is not even in the conversation.
I'm leaning towards no play. This is a game to watch & not to earn money on.
To Denail, I wasn't calling Webb overrated at all, but he shouldn't be a favorite @ Atlanta. Webb has been a better pitcher this year, but I was just saying his results aren't that much better than those of Jurrjens, and remember Webb faces MUCH easier lineups on a regular basis than Jurrjens does. The Giants, Padres, Dodgers and Rockies make up most of his opponents and I wouldn't say any of them have good lineups this year.
Another winner.
To Denail, I wasn't calling Webb overrated at all, but he shouldn't be a favorite @ Atlanta. Webb has been a better pitcher this year, but I was just saying his results aren't that much better than those of Jurrjens, and remember Webb faces MUCH easier lineups on a regular basis than Jurrjens does. The Giants, Padres, Dodgers and Rockies make up most of his opponents and I wouldn't say any of them have good lineups this year.
BOL
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