Quote Originally Posted by jstaley12:
Just giving you feedback here, use it, absorb it, ignore it, or toss it, your call.
I think it would be impossible to have confidence in this system thereby making it a novelty and the worst thing that could happen is that you hit the first few plays on it, because you'd then step up your average wagered amounts per game then losing a significant sum of money from your bankroll. Here is why I say that. How do you KNOW this will win? Obviously, I hope you researched this retroactively as if you played these qualified plays and totaled your results right? The problem is the extremely small scope of qualified games you were limited to leaves way too much chance of 'fluke' occurrences in games tracked,which would skew your results. For instance if you wanted to develop a system to predict what % the average construction little leaguer can throw a ball 45' through a 10" diameter hole in a piece of ply wood and decided to use the first 10 random kids you spoke to, for each one that was 'exceptionally good, or bad, it would skew your results by 10%) In this case you could just get to more ball parks until you tested 1000 + kids for accuracy, but you don't have that option in your stated system in this post, there are only a few available games (let's say 40? maybe) The only option you would have to counter-balance this issue is to go back to previous years to get more data. Doing this would be disasterous because then you would be using completely different teams. Not attacking you system, I am just giving you the reality of the system. GL
You are absolutely correct and with systems, it must be tested with previous years for a better result. My system is a mickey mouse system that I pulled from a hat and it is unproven. I am not asking anyone to play it but I'm playing it myself. I am only posting the teams that I am playing but I do not post my unit(s) wagering. I do not flat bet them.
Basing on my system, if I must lose, I'll lose to an upset and oh boy, we have seen a ton of those in MLB. If a team is winning, I would like to stay with such team for a 3-0 sweep if possible. The system is simple as it gets. I added a few filters to enhance this system. I can cap the wind direction and/or stadium and what not and still lose so then, it just makes more sense to just keep it simple. A man can write up a whole page worth of leans and angle and they can still lose so their big write up is then a waste. I'll just let logic dictates and if logic is wrong, so shall my bankroll.
The system prevents me from fading a team that all of a sudden became hot like PHI. So far so good but what is more striking is the 180's system. Have not lost a game yet with 2 only wins by 1 run which then is a push. buying -1RL on 5dimes by the way.
and yes, it is a system that no one understand and for some, easy to hate. I don't like it either but it is all that I do know for now. Without it, I would have lost all of my bankroll for this year already. I can't really cap mlb for chit and giggles by basing it on the normal way to cap a game. Once again, I'm fine with an upset game. I know it is bound to happen but I'm betting that it does not happen that often enough. If it is then that is just my luck.
On with the show. Play ball.
Hot Forum Topics
