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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation

    «First Previous 345 ... 181920 Next Last»
    pramsey1843
    fade_monkeyman
    alangrrbs
    GoDawsGo
    StGermain808
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 87813
    Posts: 499
    «First Previous 345 ... 181920 Next Last»
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2012 - 7:47 PM ET #51

    3-8 today -13.39 units -12.02 units total

    totals beta test 2-14 -13.4 units total with one left to play.

    This streak would be negligible midseason, but it is very noticeable so early in the season.  I am not selling anything.  Keep following this post and you will make money.  There is no are to this it is a science.  Mathematical systems have tripled my bankroll and I hope I can help you do the same. 
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    3-8 today -13.39 units -12.02 units total

    totals beta test 2-14 -13.4 units total with one left to play.

    This streak would be negligible midseason, but it is very noticeable so early in the season.  I am not selling anything.  Keep following this post and you will make money.  There is no are to this it is a science.  Mathematical systems have tripled my bankroll and I hope I can help you do the same. 
     
    fade_monkeyman
    fade_monkeyman
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2012 - 7:51 PM ET #52

    I'm considering an investment in developing software that uses that integrates information, possibly such a model as yours. Maybe we should discuss. Back-testing/monte carlo, do you want to bet you're in finance?
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    I'm considering an investment in developing software that uses that integrates information, possibly such a model as yours. Maybe we should discuss. Back-testing/monte carlo, do you want to bet you're in finance?
     
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2012 - 8:34 PM ET #53

    I'm interested in money long term...not a bad couple days in April.  I'll keep following. 
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    I'm interested in money long term...not a bad couple days in April.  I'll keep following. 
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2012 - 8:58 PM ET #54

    Actually engineering.  However, I have a system that models stock market opportunities as well.  It is all the same crap just a few different formulas and patterns.
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    Actually engineering.  However, I have a system that models stock market opportunities as well.  It is all the same crap just a few different formulas and patterns.
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2012 - 10:50 PM ET #55

    Angels -1.5 +100 1x
    For tomorrow
    Angels -159 4x
    Phillies -146 5x
    White Sox 101 1x
    Giants 151 3x
    Orioles 142 1x
    Brewers -127 3x
    Mariners 198 1x
    Cardinals 117 3x
    Red Sox 109 1x
    Royals 101 2x
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    Angels -1.5 +100 1x
    For tomorrow
    Angels -159 4x
    Phillies -146 5x
    White Sox 101 1x
    Giants 151 3x
    Orioles 142 1x
    Brewers -127 3x
    Mariners 198 1x
    Cardinals 117 3x
    Red Sox 109 1x
    Royals 101 2x
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2012 - 11:01 PM ET #56

    Totals beta test 2-15 -14.5 units lol maybe i just need to flip yes to no and u have a great system

    phillies u7
    giants u9.5
    yanks u9.5
    red sox o9
    royals u8

    remember do not play these
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    Totals beta test 2-15 -14.5 units lol maybe i just need to flip yes to no and u have a great system

    phillies u7
    giants u9.5
    yanks u9.5
    red sox o9
    royals u8

    remember do not play these
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2012 - 11:36 PM ET #57

    For full disclosure here are bets that are being played from system analysis

    Diamondbacks to win World Series 28:1 5 units
    Royals to win World Series 80:1 1 unit

    Diamondbacks over 86.5 5 units
    Orioles over 69.5 3 units
    Tigers over 92.5 2 units
    Mets over 72 1.5 units
    Giants under 87.5  1 unit
    Rays over 86.5 1 unit
    Nationals over 83.5 5 units
    Blue Jays over 80.5 1 unit

    Ian Kennedy o14.5 wins 1 unit
    Michael Bourn Batting Average under .285 1 unit
    Nick Markakis o75.5 RBI 1 unit
    Ryan Dempster o10 wins 1 unit
    Jay Bruce ov31.5 hr 1 unit
                    ov95.5 rbi 1 unit
    Wandy Rodriguez ov10.5 wins 1 unit
    Clayton Kershaw ERA u2.7 1 unit
    Chad Billingsley o11.5 wins 1 unit
    Greinke ERA u3.55 1 unit
    Johan Santana o7.5 wins 1 unit
    Ichiro o60.5 RBI 1 unit
    David Freese u 15.5 HR 1 unit
    Strasburg ERA u2.9 1 unit

    Most HR Matt Kemp 18:1 1 unit
    Highest batting avg u.348 1 unit

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    For full disclosure here are bets that are being played from system analysis

    Diamondbacks to win World Series 28:1 5 units
    Royals to win World Series 80:1 1 unit

    Diamondbacks over 86.5 5 units
    Orioles over 69.5 3 units
    Tigers over 92.5 2 units
    Mets over 72 1.5 units
    Giants under 87.5  1 unit
    Rays over 86.5 1 unit
    Nationals over 83.5 5 units
    Blue Jays over 80.5 1 unit

    Ian Kennedy o14.5 wins 1 unit
    Michael Bourn Batting Average under .285 1 unit
    Nick Markakis o75.5 RBI 1 unit
    Ryan Dempster o10 wins 1 unit
    Jay Bruce ov31.5 hr 1 unit
                    ov95.5 rbi 1 unit
    Wandy Rodriguez ov10.5 wins 1 unit
    Clayton Kershaw ERA u2.7 1 unit
    Chad Billingsley o11.5 wins 1 unit
    Greinke ERA u3.55 1 unit
    Johan Santana o7.5 wins 1 unit
    Ichiro o60.5 RBI 1 unit
    David Freese u 15.5 HR 1 unit
    Strasburg ERA u2.9 1 unit

    Most HR Matt Kemp 18:1 1 unit
    Highest batting avg u.348 1 unit

     
    GoDawsGo
    GoDawsGo
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2012 - 11:42 PM ET #58

    hey let us know your stock picks too
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    hey let us know your stock picks too
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2012 - 11:57 PM ET #59

    Lol a lot of my stock trades are 1 day trades in at 10 out at 3.  Next time I get a stock pick with longer range prospects I will let you know I bought it.  A lot of times they are artificially surpressed stocks.

    A good example was Massey Energy bought it at 31 after the cave in sold it for 59.  My stock picks required patience.  I do a lot of "catching the knife" but will let you know.
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    Lol a lot of my stock trades are 1 day trades in at 10 out at 3.  Next time I get a stock pick with longer range prospects I will let you know I bought it.  A lot of times they are artificially surpressed stocks.

    A good example was Massey Energy bought it at 31 after the cave in sold it for 59.  My stock picks required patience.  I do a lot of "catching the knife" but will let you know.
     
    StGermain808
    StGermain808
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 10:32 AM ET #60

    what was your winning % last
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    what was your winning % last
     
    StGermain808
    StGermain808
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 11:13 AM ET #61

    year
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    year
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 3:19 PM ET #62

    I don't have an overall percentage i have total units and breakdown by category.  The total units +109.32.   The system was 54.2% picking underdogs.  72.3% picking favorites.
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    I don't have an overall percentage i have total units and breakdown by category.  The total units +109.32.   The system was 54.2% picking underdogs.  72.3% picking favorites.
     
    StGermain808
    StGermain808
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 4:45 PM ET #63

    thats really impressive
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    thats really impressive
     
    StGermain808
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 4:49 PM ET #64

    and on your previous five years that you simulated what did those years look like
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    and on your previous five years that you simulated what did those years look like
     
    StGermain808
    StGermain808
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 5:01 PM ET #65

    what does your system say for basketball tonite
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    what does your system say for basketball tonite
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 6:45 PM ET #66

    This is just some semi educated statistical analysis for basketball. Had a decent year but no system and only because you asked.  I am playing these just for grins.  My basketball unit is $40.

    Wizards 1.5 (1x)
    Pistons 7.5 (1x)
    Thunder -3 (3x)
    Lakers -3 (3x)
    Spurs -3 (2x)
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    This is just some semi educated statistical analysis for basketball. Had a decent year but no system and only because you asked.  I am playing these just for grins.  My basketball unit is $40.

    Wizards 1.5 (1x)
    Pistons 7.5 (1x)
    Thunder -3 (3x)
    Lakers -3 (3x)
    Spurs -3 (2x)
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 6:46 PM ET #67

    I can get those years from the simulation.  I do not have it readily available, but I can find it.
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    I can get those years from the simulation.  I do not have it readily available, but I can find it.
     
    StGermain808
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 6:49 PM ET #68

    thanks and dont worry about the research. im sure you have better things to do
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    thanks and dont worry about the research. im sure you have better things to do
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 6:58 PM ET #69

    Currently
    Mariners 198 1x

    Adding 
    Mariners 222 1x

    so total of 2 units on Mariners
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    Currently
    Mariners 198 1x

    Adding 
    Mariners 222 1x

    so total of 2 units on Mariners
     
    StGermain808
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 7:32 PM ET #70

    im on board

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    im on board

     
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 11:18 PM ET #71

    All I can say is wow to the end of the lakers game.
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    All I can say is wow to the end of the lakers game.
     
    pramsey1843
    pramsey1843
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 11:29 PM ET #72

    The Phillies are the first team to hit a freeze.  A freeze means, any suggested bet will be moved down by 4x.  If it is a negative number, the play goes away.  Obviously, the program loves the Phillies who can't hit water falling out of a boat.  Freezes happen when several different criteria are met.  The model will recalibrate the Phillies but we don't want to lose with them until it does.  This was a guard that was put in last year when the model loved the Red Sox who were awful at the beginning of the year.  It also save you from the Red Sox at the end of the year.  I will let you know when the freeze ends.
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    The Phillies are the first team to hit a freeze.  A freeze means, any suggested bet will be moved down by 4x.  If it is a negative number, the play goes away.  Obviously, the program loves the Phillies who can't hit water falling out of a boat.  Freezes happen when several different criteria are met.  The model will recalibrate the Phillies but we don't want to lose with them until it does.  This was a guard that was put in last year when the model loved the Red Sox who were awful at the beginning of the year.  It also save you from the Red Sox at the end of the year.  I will let you know when the freeze ends.
     
    StGermain808
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 11:42 PM ET #73

    i missed the Lakers game. But i do have to say WOW  Those were some outstanding baseball picks. Very impressive! So im guessing based on your posting that their wont be any picks for tomorrow?
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    i missed the Lakers game. But i do have to say WOW  Those were some outstanding baseball picks. Very impressive! So im guessing based on your posting that their wont be any picks for tomorrow?
     
    Parlay4Life775
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 11:57 PM ET #74

    Whats your system saying for tomorrows mlb/nba? Im liking the dodgers, cardinals, new york knicks +9 etc...but would like to see what you come up with or any thoughts?

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    Whats your system saying for tomorrows mlb/nba? Im liking the dodgers, cardinals, new york knicks +9 etc...but would like to see what you come up with or any thoughts?

     
     
    Bayourock
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    Posted: Apr. 10, 2012 - 12:49 AM ET #75

    I'm loving the other side of your o/u.  I bet the other side of 4 of you picks just for fun today, won 3 of 4.  Looking from your beta test results, looks like you have a variable backwards, which is giving the the opposite picks...lol

    Your straight picks look good, im gonna follow this thread all summer....
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    I'm loving the other side of your o/u.  I bet the other side of 4 of you picks just for fun today, won 3 of 4.  Looking from your beta test results, looks like you have a variable backwards, which is giving the the opposite picks...lol

    Your straight picks look good, im gonna follow this thread all summer....
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