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MLB 2011

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Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #1
Hi Everyone!

Background:
- resident Eastern- Europe -sorry about my English!
- I am 24 years old)
- newbie to hndicapping sport /from 2009 December/
- NHL handicapping 2010-2011 from 2011 February:
  2011/02 + 60%
  2011/03 + 20% profit = my 1st profitable "half season"!
  previously a played European Ice Hockey but it was a stech for me so I jumped into NHL

I'm going to post my plays in MLB into this topic daily(hopefully)!
I'm new to baseball handicapping - my second season(the 1st was a joke!)-but ia hope I will learn so many things from here YOU guys as I have already learned much!
Please help me out with Your observations or opinions!
Thank you for that!

So MLB!
ONLY Money Line bets! I have no clue about totals!
I mainly play underdogs - at this time - try to find the best value!
NO more then 4 plays in open bet(3 unit bets), mybe an action bet for 1 unit!


2011/06/01
HOU  (+112) - CHC  --  3 unit(or 3% of BR)
NYY  (+100) - OAK  --  3 unit
CWS (+125) - BOS  --  3 unit
BAL  (+140) - SEA   --  3 unit
+
TEX  (+125) - TB      -- 1 unit (action play)

These are my early plays!

BOL TO EVERYONE!
 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 341
Posted: #2
HI!
Really, really nice run!
It was perfect day!


2011/06/01
HOU  (+112) - CHC  -- >  + 3.36 U
NYY  (+100) - OAK  -- >   + 3.00 U
CWS (+125) - BOS  -- >   + 3.75 U
BAL  (+140) - SEA   --  >  + 4.20 U
+
TEX  (+125) - TB      -- >  +1.25 U

YTD
5 - 0
+ 15.56 U (1 U= 1% of current Bankroll)

I decided to play another play for today, just for fun - let it ride :

SD(+165) - ATL  -- 1 U (action play)
+ just a lean, no money play:
COL - LAD(+113)


BOL to Everyone!


                
 
MVP
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Posts: 19355
Posted: #3
nice day 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 341
Posted: #4
Thank you brent0887 !
 
Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #5
Summary =>
06/01

5 - 1 --- >>>   +14.56 U
3 U PLAY: 4 - 0
1 U PLAY: 1 - 1


HOU  (+112) - CHC  -- >  + 3.36 U
NYY  (+100) - OAK  -- >   + 3.00 U
CWS (+125) - BOS  -- >   + 3.75 U
BAL  (+140) - SEA   --  >  + 4.20 U
+
TEX  (+125) - TB      -- >  +1.25 U
SD (+165)   - ATL      -- >  - 1.00 should take on +1.5 RL (3-4)


 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 341
Posted: #6
Hello!

Yesterday a couldn't post my picks but I maked them on the MLB contest - SEE here =
https://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/picksByDate.aspx?date=06/02/2011&ur=448594&contestID=17920&sportID=5

My offical DOG plays was:

SF (+110) - STL  --  > 3 U   ---  (W) + 3.30 U
SF would be the choise also if Garcia started @+160 SF see contest odds
TEX (+120) - CLE   -- > 3 U   ---  (W) + 3.60 U

HOU (+120) - SD   --- >  3 U ---  (W) +  3.60 U  

Action Plays = All for 1 U
 - TB (+113) - SEA --- > (L)  - 1.00  U
 -  WSH (+118) - ARI --- >  (W)  + 1.13 U
 -  PIT - NYM (-125)  --- >  (W) + 1.00 U

SUMMARY
YTD 06/02 --- 5 - 1   >>>  + 11.60 U

TOTAL YTD =  10 - 2  >>>     + 26.00  U
3 U PLAY   7 - 0    ---   >>>    + 24.80 U
1 U PLAY   3 - 2    ---   >>>    +    1. 30 U





 
Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #7
START= 2011/06/01
TOTAL YTD =  10 - 2  >>>     + 26.00  U
3 U PLAY   7 - 0    ---   >>>    + 24.80 U
1 U PLAY   3 - 2    ---   >>>    +    1. 30 U

Hello Everyone!

06/03

TOR (+112) - BAL --- > 3 U
NYY (+121) - LAA --- > 3 U
LAD (+112) - CIN  --- > 3 U
DET (+125) - CWS --- > 3 U

Action plays:
OAK (+171) - BOS --- > 1 U
WSH (+152) - ARI --- > 1 U
MIN (+136) - KC --- > 1 U

That's for today!

BOL to everyone!
 
Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #8
START= 2011/06/01
TOTAL YTD =  12 - 7   >>>     +  19.76  U
3 U PLAY   8 - 3    ---   >>>    + 19.16 U
1 U PLAY   4 - 4    ---   >>>    +    0.66 U

Hello!

06/03 recap:
TOR (+112) - BAL --- > + 3.36 U
NYY (+121) - LAA --- >  - 3 U
LAD (+112) - CIN  --- >  - 3 U
DET (+125) - CWS --- > -  3 U

Action plays:
OAK (+171) - BOS --- > - 1 U
WSH (+152) - ARI --- > - 1 U
MIN (+136) - KC --- > + 1.36 U

06/03 ytd  = - 6.28 u

Some changes I have been thinking of:
 - less action ( 1U ) play max 1-2
 - maybe max 3 plays on  3 U plays! 4 is too compicated!

That's for now - i will return later with the plays for today!
 
Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #9
Hi!

06/04 (early plays)

LAD (+105) - CIN --- > 3 U

TB - SEA ( +120)  --- > 3 U

CHC (+170) - STL --- > 1 U

More plays later!
 
All-Star
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Posts: 14985
Posted: #10
Cubs, BOL I can't back this train wreck of a team.
Second mouse gets the cheese.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #11
Hello!

More plays:

TEX (+100) - CLE --- > 3 U
DET (RL +125) - CWS --- > 3U
NYY (RL +116) - LAA --- > 3U
MIN (+125) - KC --- > 3 U

I play 4 bets again - let's see what will happen!
Really like those 2 favs (DET + NYY) on the RL - so I take a shot on them!
I also decided to modyfy UNIT rating:
- no more 1 Unit bets
- 3 Unit bets(average plays - but good enough to risk)
- 5-6 Unit bets (the best bets)
Also play some ML favs but with no high chalk - use RL (i think i baseball its totally worth - not as the PL in NHL)
- Try to make max 4 open bets - but I'm confused a bti about that -----   sometimes less is more!!


I think I need to learn much more here in baseball!
But the more i mistake the more I should learn from them - so go with the lessons!

BOL to Everyone!!!!

Oh just lost TB - SEA (+120) in a clos one (3-2)
 
Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #12
Hi everyone!

SEASON YTD =
START= 2011/06/01
TOTAL YTD =  16 - 10   >>>     + 26.50 U
3 U PLAY   12 - 5    ---   >>>    + 26.85 U
1 U PLAY   4 - 5    ---   >>>    - 0.35 U

Yesterday:
LAD (+105) - CIN --- > + 3.15 U  (wow,what a match!!??)
TB - SEA ( +120)  --- > - 3 U  (close one)
CHC (+170) - STL --- > - 1 U 

TEX (+100) - CLE --- > + 3 U
DET (RL +125) - CWS --- > + 3.75U
NYY (RL +116) - LAA --- > - 3 U
MIN (+125) - KC --- > + 3.75 U

YTD = 4 - 3 --- >>> + 6.65 U 

Good day!
Have a nice Sunday!





 
Veteran
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Posts: 2043
Posted: #13
 
Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #14
Hello Everyone!

Thank you unclebruce !

06/05

TEX - CLE (+115) --- >  3 U ( Cle may and can avoid the 4 game sweep )

OAK (+120) - BOS --- > 3 U ( Anderson's better recent and overall pitching + avoid sweep + close prevoius match - after extra inning lost )

MIN (+130) - KC  --- > 3 U  ( Min need this and can sweep KC; like Duensing ! +  better batting )

MIL - FLA (RL +145) --- > 3U (really like Anibal Sanchez here against Mil + Narveson's not so good form + avoid the sweep today because tomorow I think Vazquez cannot handle Greinke + G1+G2 prec lost against Mil)

These are my plays for today!

I also lean toward CHC (+145) - STL - but this is only a play in my head no money on that!

BOL to everyone!



 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 341
Posted: #15
HI!

06/05

TEX - CLE (+115) --- >  - 3 U
OAK (+120) - BOS --- > - 3 U
MIN (+130) - KC  --- > + 3.90 U 
MIL - FLA (RL +145) --- > - 3 U

YTD  =  1- 4 --- > - 5.90 U

Wow, that was not so good!
Mistake:
- FLA = Line movement was against me - better idea not to bet on it!
- other plays were still playable
- no favourites on Game 3 - to avoid sweep - > play rather the DOG!
- from tomorrow no more than 3 plays!


SEASON YTD =
START= 2011/06/01
TOTAL YTD =  17 - 13   >>>     + 20.60 U
3 U PLAY   13 - 8    ---   >>>    + 20.95 U
1 U PLAY   4 - 5    ---   >>>    - 0.35 U

Good night!

 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 341
Posted: #16
HI!

Yesterday I couldn't post here my plays!
It was a really good day: 2 - 1     +5.25 U
MIN ( +135 )+ DET (+140 ) W + 8.25 U
WSH ( +170 ) L - 3 U

But these were not posted so I don't record them !


Today
06/07
My leans are
MIN
DET
SD
SEA
WSH
NYM
TOR
PIT

I will come back later and pick from them the 3 most valuable!

BOL!

 
Veteran
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Posts: 3208
Posted: #17
BOL today axell!!!peace handshake
 
Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #18
HI Everyone!

Thank you very much sc_capper74!
Same to you and everyone!

06/07
MIN (+115) - CLE --- > 3 U
DET (+125) - TEX --- > 3 U
OAK(-110) - BAL --- > 3 U


These are for today!

See you tomorrow!

Bye!
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1611
Posted: #19
GL
 
Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #20
Hello Everyone!


Thank you Brian_Kim!
I hope you had better luck yesterday!

Yesterday:
06/07
MIN (+115) - CLE --- > - 3 U
DET (+125) - TEX --- > + 3.75 U
OAK(-110) - BAL --- > - 3 U (should not be played - on a losing streak - > a better play shuold be NYM - MIL or WSH- SF)

1 - 2 = > -2.25 U

SEASON YTD =
START= 2011/06/01
TOTAL YTD =  18 - 15   >>>     + 18.35 U
3 U PLAY   13 - 8    ---   >>>    + 18.70 U
1 U PLAY   4 - 5    ---   >>>    - 0.35 U

Some notes:
 - NO further recording 1 U plays
 - unit rates 3 and 6 Unit
 - 3 to 4 games per day
 - ONLY dogs


I will come back later with the plays!

Bye!


 
Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #21
HI Everyone!

06/08

DET (+145) - TEX --- > 3 U
OAK (+120) - BAL --- > 3 U
TOR (+100) - KC --- > 3 U
TB (+125) - LAA --- > 3 U


GL EVERYONE!
 
Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #22
Hello!

Yesterday
06/08
2 - 2  = > + 0.75 U

DET (+145) - TEX --- > - 3 U
OAK (+120) - BAL --- > - 3 U
TOR (+100) - KC --- > + 3 U
TB (+125) - LAA --- > + 3.75 U

SEASON YTD =
START= 2011/06/01
TOTAL YTD  = 15 - 10    ---   >>>    + 19.45 U --- > 60%  W/L

Try to commit myself not to make useless bets, but I played Oakland again despite I knew that they did not have any form (losing streak last series+ G1+G2 in Baltimore) - so decided to write down all of my conscous mistakes to repeat and learn from them!
OAK was not a good bet!(06/07 + 06/08)

I come back later!

Have a nice day!


 
Veteran
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Posts: 3208
Posted: #23
BOL today axell!!!peace handshake
 
Prospect
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Posts: 341
Posted: #24
Thanks sc_capper74!
GL to you also!

My early leans 06/09
ARI
BOS
MIN
SEA
LAD
CIN
CWS


 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 341
Posted: #25
Hi!
NO final plays yet!
BUT these are in my mind:
MIN !
SEA !
BOS ?
CWS !?
LAD ???

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