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MLB - Tuesday 4/14

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Posted: #26
good luck
 
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Posted: #27
Thanks Game.
 
Always willing to help out when I have the time.Real quick, I concur with the Tribe under as well. As you've stated above, (Davies & Lassogna) two critical elements for an under are in place. And as for a third...... Well, there really isn't any sugar-coating what happened to Carl Pavano in his first start last week, but I can say that facing the Rangers lineup in Arlington in comparison to facing the Royals linuep in there home park is about as similar as............
 
Ya know what, I can't even metaphorically think of anything that would accurately depict this particular dissimilarity , but you get my point.
 
GL man 
 
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Posted: #28
good luck today fellas
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by jlt9889:

good luck

 
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Posted: #30
GH doesn't Pavano worry you?
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:

GH - thoughts on Volstad tonight?

line movement bothers me. i thought i had a deal at +133 this morning. ive seen this kid pitch. he's the real deal


reminds me of the Yanks yesterday when the line kept climbing....the line on the Braves is way too high but I avoid the Fish typically against high strikeout pitchers as they are the highest strikeout team in the majors....I am going to sit this one out even though there is value in the Fish.
 
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Posted: #33
PAVANO FACTOR:

Regarding Pavano, see my man Pinnacle's point ABOVE. I am willing to excuse his flop in Texas against the best offense in the majors in contrast to now facing an anemic offense like KC in a pitcher's park especially with a pitcher friendly umpire.
 
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Posted: #35
Good Luck GH...I love this thread!!!
 
 
 
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Posted: #36
o/u is so risky in the kc game cuz pavano could give up 9 by himself or he could pitch a gem, pavona is very shaky
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:



reminds me of the Yanks yesterday when the line kept climbing....the line on the Braves is way too high but I avoid the Fish typically against high strikeout pitchers as they are the highest strikeout team in the majors....I am going to sit this one out even though there is value in the Fish.


my worry as well but the value for me was too great to pass up
 
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Posted: #38
Goodluck Game
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Swoop:

Why AZ Game?  CCarp looks sharp and the bats are hot  

I understand the value strategy etc, but is this the spot?  Thanks again for all your input  


I think Carpenter is receiving too much love...he will be closely watched on a pitch count and I don't think he makes it past the 6th inning. He was fortunate in facing the Pirates on a cold day and got through 7 innings with a very economical 92 pitches. I honestly think he goes 5-6 innings at best here. This is a guy who missed almost all of 2008 now making his first road start of the year and jsut his second start of the season. If Ariz is smart, they will be more patient and drive up hi s pitch count so they can get to the Cars' pen that is quite vulnerable. Scherzer is a future stud and has a live arm and I feel that there is real value in the Dbacks at home against Carpenter who will be closely monitored ona  pitch count and isn't as dominant as his first start indicates.
 
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Posted: #40
sounds like that kc under should be a higher play then 1.5u. 
 
gl buddy  
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by thatsagoodone:

sounds like that kc under should be a higher play then 1.5u. 
 
gl buddy  


I guess I also have Pavanoitis.

But your point is duly noted and I probably agree.
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:



my worry as well but the value for me was too great to pass up


It's the only side I could play. Good luck. I'm pulling for you.
 
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Posted: #43
GL Game, on Cinci also, thinking about the angels over and KC under...
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:



I think Carpenter is receiving too much love...he will be closely watched on a pitch count and I don't think he makes it past the 6th inning. He was fortunate in facing the Pirates on a cold day and got through 7 innings with a very economical 92 pitches. I honestly think he goes 5-6 innings at best here. This is a guy who missed almost all of 2008 now making his first road start of the year and jsut his second start of the season. If Ariz is smart, they will be more patient and drive up hi s pitch count so they can get to the Cars' pen that is quite vulnerable. Scherzer is a future stud and has a live arm and I feel that there is real value in the Dbacks at home against Carpenter who will be closely monitored ona  pitch count and isn't as dominant as his first start indicates.


I want to fade Carpenter as well, but we all know AZ has never been accused of being "smart" in their approach to hitting.  I was wishfully hoping for +140 to back Az here.  Still thinking about this one.

Great start and continued success.


 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by doryj:



I want to fade Carpenter as well, but we all know AZ has never been accused of being "smart" in their approach to hitting.  I was wishfully hoping for +140 to back Az here.  Still thinking about this one.

Great start and continued success.




thanks and good point...still think the Dbacks are capable here and shouldn't be dogs of this size against a pitcher just returning.....
 
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Posted: #46
Nice run GH,my BR is at a nice level already,GL today,that KC under last night was not easy to watch as Cleveland left quite a few on base,but that Soria sure can pitch.thanks
 
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Posted: #47
Tony said he's taking Carp out after 7 no matter what. Carp was on against the Pirates, I think he'll be fine today.

Pavano gonna get lit up, even by the anemic Royals bats. Davies is a potential stud himself. Like the Royals here and possibly the over.

Love your picks every day, you're a true gentleman. BOL today sir.
 
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Posted: #48
I like your plays tonight GH, all except the Zona bet. At first sight I wanted to take them too but I think Scherzer may get roughed here, he doesn't get good enough RS and the Snakes aren't hitting as it is. I think Carpenter is being looked upon as a leader of this team (as far as SPs are concerned) and with him healthy, at least for now, they will step up offensively.

Just don't think this is a good moment to back the Snakes. I do like your Texas play a lot though, and leaning the under in KC. 

GL
 
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Posted: #49
gl today Game
 
 
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Posted: #50

Game, do you have any evidence that the ump actually matters as far as totals are concerned.  I remember reading a study somewhere basically saying there was no correlation whatsoever in umps being a factor.   Granted, I think the study was over 3 seasons, so that might not be large enough sample size.  But I always question the merits of handicapping a game based on the ump.  I don't do it and don't look at all at the umps, but am willing to take a look if I know that there is some hard evidence that it in fact is relevant.

 

Good luck today....

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