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MLB - Tuesday 4/14

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Prospect
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Posted: #76
MARINERS/ANGELS OVER
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #77
i dont want to use covers.. they don't even have BILL HOHN in their list of umpires.. come on now
 
Captain
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Posted: #78
game when you have over 100 umpires, there are always going to be some that have high over or high under records.  That is just pure probability.  If you have something consistent over 5 years, then I think that is something definitely to look at.
 
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Posted: #79

Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:

I am a firm believer that umpires an important factor to consider. I am large believer in statistics. Look at some umpire stats for last season. Things don't just randomly happen in my opinion when you look at season long stats. Here are some interesting umpire trends for 2008 umpires:

Darling 22-11 OVER and 24-9 for the home team
Campos 18-5 OVER

Davidson 23-10 UNDER
Kulpa 21-10 UNDER

Hernadez 25-9 HOME TEAM
Gorman 24-9 HOME TEAM
DiMuro 24-8 HOME TEAM
Cousins 25-10 HOME TEAM
Welke 25-9 HOME TEAM

Culbreth 22-12 ROAD TEAM
Nauert 20-13 ROAD TEAM
Hohn 17-9 ROAD TEAM
Demuth 21-12 ROAD TEAM

There have to be factors that cause one umpire to be 18-5 OVER while another is 23-10 UNDER. There have to be factors that cause one umpire to be 25-9 in favor of the home team while another is 22-12 for the road team.

I don't think umpires are the sole reason on why you should make a play but it is certainly an important factor in my opinion to consider especially when you see how it matches up with the other factors you consider.


 

Thank you for your explanation. Do you take it a step further, like charting all Umps against all teams? I am new to baseball betting(football and basketball) so I hope it's not too dumb of a question. Thanks in advance.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #80

GL today, thank you for the picks.
tor/min Under.




 
Prospect
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Posted: #81
GH the ML on the Marlins went from +140 to +130.  What would this tell you about this game?
 
All-Star
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by PINNACLE:

Thanks Game.
 
Always willing to help out when I have the time.Real quick, I concur with the Tribe under as well. As you've stated above, (Davies & Lassogna) two critical elements for an under are in place. And as for a third...... Well, there really isn't any sugar-coating what happened to Carl Pavano in his first start last week, but I can say that facing the Rangers lineup in Arlington in comparison to facing the Royals linuep in there home park is about as similar as............
 
Ya know what, I can't even metaphorically think of anything that would accurately depict this particular dissimilarity , but you get my point.
 
GL man 

Yeah, at the risk of thread-jacking, I'd like to thank you for pointing me in the right direction as well.    Played KC RL, ML and the under.   Top of the 9th was fun.    Back to the well tonight, with the same trio, except we're going over 9. 

 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

hey game,

I am trying to find a site with umpire stats from previous years.. i used thespread.com last year but cant seem to find previous year stats.. do you have any good sources?

 

 

nbafan.............who is that chick?

 
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Posted: #84
some playboy playmate... not sure :(
 
MVP
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Posted: #85
KC Under and Minn Under
 
 
 
 
 
MVP
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

i dont want to use covers.. they don't even have BILL HOHN in their list of umpires.. come on now


Covers goes back about 9 years for each umpire but they do seem to be missing Bill Hohn.
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

some playboy playmate... not sure :(

Could I task you on finding out, please.    I might be "needing" a little more of her. 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #88
Here's your umps
 
 
 
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Posted: #89
can somebody give me a link that shows the umpires for each baseball games or a website? thanks
 
Captain
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Posted: #90
didn't read every post so not sure if this was brought up why not go with Indians under 4.5 instead of taking a chance with Pavano?
 
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Posted: #91
GH is that all the games your playing today??
 
 I also think the Ump can make a huge diff.in the game,even though Wang sucked last night,I was on TB,the ump didnt give him any close pitches because he was off,and they seem to do that alot.Ive noticed that if a pitcher is having control issues,they really call them tight. 
 
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Posted: #92
BOL GH
 
Captain
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by razor333:

GH the ML on the Marlins went from +140 to +130.  What would this tell you about this game?


Generally it means that the people who got the Marlins at +140 picked the sharper side, but some or all of the value in the play may be lost with the line move.  If you make a lot of overnight plays, and most of the lines are worse by gametime, then you're doing something right.
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #94

there are 3 types of lies:

 

Lies

Damned Lies

And Statistics.

 

Umpire's O/U means nothing, what is important is the % of strikes called.  That number should asympotically (going to infinity, or generally over many years for Umps) tend to be the same between all umps.  Unless some umps call more strikes than others.

 

If you cant find biases in your stats maybe u shouldn't use stats as a basis for your plays.

 
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Posted: #95
Still no thoughts on the Jays' fast start eh....???  NO probs...when you actually PLAY them I may ask again....
 
(Yes game, I know your rule about non-posted picks... wanted your general feel only lol...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(...soup nazi )
 
JK
 
 
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Posted: #96
Also, weather.com has a listing of all the games that when you click on it, an arrow shows on the diamond which way the wind is blowing. For example, follow this link:

https://www.weather.com/outlook/event...eventid=209684
 
Prospect
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Posted: #97
wat do u guys mean when you say units?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by p0eskii:

wat do u guys mean when you say units?

 

most people say 1 unit is $100

 
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Posted: #99
The big difference with umpires is how they interpret the strike zone. The Under umpires obviously have a larger strike zone than the Over umpires do. Of course, due to random bad pitching you can have an Under umpire that goes over periodically and good pitching will do the opposite but again the strike zone is the most important part. If you don't believe me watch a game with one of these Over umpires and watch pitcher's like Halladay, Lincecum or whoever get upset as they just don't get the calls that they usually do. Also, when the strike zone is reduced the hitter is able to zero on a smaller target so that he is able to get the bat on the ball more often.

The opposite occurs with a wider strike zone, usually causing a Under umpire. Pitchers are able to paint the corners and batters are often behind in counts and must reach to hit the ball more often.

These sound like fundamental things of baseball and they are but that is why the Umpire information is important in my opinion.

By the way Gamehunter, haven't been around in a while but good luck on the plays and I am glad to see you doing well so far this season.


 
 
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Posted: #100
GH: Why did you feel there was value on a below-average Arizona team at only +125 against a Cy Young winner who has been virtually unhittable?
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