This year mlb is very hard for me to cap and it’s almost impossible to find an edge. I’m not bitching because my big bet on SD was leading 7-1 turns into 7-12 in 2 innings ……but seriously, I want to ask all the cappers in here where to capitalize the data and making money in mlb ?
Anyone, any comments will be appreciated
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This year mlb is very hard for me to cap and it’s almost impossible to find an edge. I’m not bitching because my big bet on SD was leading 7-1 turns into 7-12 in 2 innings ……but seriously, I want to ask all the cappers in here where to capitalize the data and making money in mlb ?
I have always felt that baseball is the hardest sport to bet on. It is not a sport to bet on every day. That is the problem. Instead of picking one's spots and maybe betting only five to ten bets all month, most/me play every day. It is really difficult to be in the plus if you are an everyday bettor. But it's so fun!
College basketball is best to bet on for me. Then the WNBA. Then football (either) for me. I also like betting women's tennis and the NBA.
I will say live betting helps baseball also. You just have to be ready to move.
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I have always felt that baseball is the hardest sport to bet on. It is not a sport to bet on every day. That is the problem. Instead of picking one's spots and maybe betting only five to ten bets all month, most/me play every day. It is really difficult to be in the plus if you are an everyday bettor. But it's so fun!
College basketball is best to bet on for me. Then the WNBA. Then football (either) for me. I also like betting women's tennis and the NBA.
I will say live betting helps baseball also. You just have to be ready to move.
Tailing is one thing but somehow the whole season you’ll need to able to cap your own game……I’m thinking to take the mlb season off since the World Cup is coming soon and all the big money is always there.
@River_fish
Baseball used to be my favourite, I won a 12 games parlay one time and it was just like another day in the office for me but not this season so far ……I think your opinion is really important that mlb maybe a weekly bet instead of a daily thing.
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@ayashifx55
Tailing is one thing but somehow the whole season you’ll need to able to cap your own game……I’m thinking to take the mlb season off since the World Cup is coming soon and all the big money is always there.
@River_fish
Baseball used to be my favourite, I won a 12 games parlay one time and it was just like another day in the office for me but not this season so far ……I think your opinion is really important that mlb maybe a weekly bet instead of a daily thing.
IMO just find one value play (+ money) every day whether in a player prop or team prop. Everyone always loves the - play on teams in MLB and feed into the juice and end up getting burned.
Baseball I only will play if its + money.
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IMO just find one value play (+ money) every day whether in a player prop or team prop. Everyone always loves the - play on teams in MLB and feed into the juice and end up getting burned.
Yup , 100% agree. I don’t actually drink the juice unless I’m very confident in that game and I’ll take 1.7 @ my lowest odds And limit to one play maybe the right thing to do too~
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@The_Land17
Yup , 100% agree. I don’t actually drink the juice unless I’m very confident in that game and I’ll take 1.7 @ my lowest odds And limit to one play maybe the right thing to do too~
I have never had a lot of success on baseball. I have narrowed it down to A Plus money dog ,usually just the first 5 inn. because of the pitching matchup, or a 2 team parlay that is maybe small favorites. This is from a small time guy that does not claim to know alot. LOL.
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I have never had a lot of success on baseball. I have narrowed it down to A Plus money dog ,usually just the first 5 inn. because of the pitching matchup, or a 2 team parlay that is maybe small favorites. This is from a small time guy that does not claim to know alot. LOL.
This year mlb is very hard for me to cap and it’s almost impossible to find an edge. I’m not bitching because my big bet on SD was leading 7-1 turns into 7-12 in 2 innings ……but seriously, I want to ask all the cappers in here where to capitalize the data and making money in mlb ? Anyone, any comments will be appreciated
OMG there is so much I could say here on this topic but I just don't have the time (and I am a slow typist to begin with) But suffice to say that this thought about how tough it is, is being posed during the one month every year (opening month) in EVERY SPORT which has the highest variance/volatility. Once the key stats we analyze for our handicapping methods moves BEYOND mere tiny sample sizes (ie, April) to more reasonable stats (ie, May 01 and beyond) then typically one's ability to score wins more reliably tends to occur among those skilled at capping. IOW, even a highly skilled capper will have a tougher time in April than he will thru the rest of the year (at least, typically) The variance from tiny sample sizes is just way too volatile in the opening month of ANY sport...
Sure, some guys bet early and win more than lose. Yep! It can happen for some! But what we usually DON'T hear about is all the legions of guys who try the same thing and LOSE.
I'm willing to bet that books make their highest percentage of profits relative to bet volume during the first month of EVERY sport. It's much closer to a crap-shoot/coin-flip in April than it is in any other MLB month.....Best to avoid imho.
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Quote Originally Posted by happyshine:
This year mlb is very hard for me to cap and it’s almost impossible to find an edge. I’m not bitching because my big bet on SD was leading 7-1 turns into 7-12 in 2 innings ……but seriously, I want to ask all the cappers in here where to capitalize the data and making money in mlb ? Anyone, any comments will be appreciated
OMG there is so much I could say here on this topic but I just don't have the time (and I am a slow typist to begin with) But suffice to say that this thought about how tough it is, is being posed during the one month every year (opening month) in EVERY SPORT which has the highest variance/volatility. Once the key stats we analyze for our handicapping methods moves BEYOND mere tiny sample sizes (ie, April) to more reasonable stats (ie, May 01 and beyond) then typically one's ability to score wins more reliably tends to occur among those skilled at capping. IOW, even a highly skilled capper will have a tougher time in April than he will thru the rest of the year (at least, typically) The variance from tiny sample sizes is just way too volatile in the opening month of ANY sport...
Sure, some guys bet early and win more than lose. Yep! It can happen for some! But what we usually DON'T hear about is all the legions of guys who try the same thing and LOSE.
I'm willing to bet that books make their highest percentage of profits relative to bet volume during the first month of EVERY sport. It's much closer to a crap-shoot/coin-flip in April than it is in any other MLB month.....Best to avoid imho.
I'm going to give you a big hint... because I'm that kind of person... extremely generous...
Baseball isn't hard...it's actually simple...Look for the teams who have only won 1 in a row then take them off your list...Only bet on streaks of 3 or more...
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@happyshine
Hey Happy...
I'm going to give you a big hint... because I'm that kind of person... extremely generous...
Baseball isn't hard...it's actually simple...Look for the teams who have only won 1 in a row then take them off your list...Only bet on streaks of 3 or more...
?I’m a fan of riding with the heavy hitters. My strategy centers on backing the league’s most dangerous lineups—the teams that can put up a crooked number in any inning. When you've got the Yankees, Dodgers, or Braves facing any team and especially a bottom-tier team, I’m not just looking for a win; I’m betting the run line.
?These teams have the firepower to blow the doors off a game, turning a simple victory into a massive payout. When they cover the spread, they don't just squeak by—they clear the fences by a mile. Looking at those run differentials so far this year of +47, +67, and +65, it’s clear that when the big bats show up against weak pitching, the favorites are a lock to cover big.
The Game Plan: Keep hunting those mismatches. When the elite bats meet a struggling bullpen, taking the spread is the play—because as you've seen, when they win, they tend to leave no doubt on the scoreboard.
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@happyshine
?The "Power Alley" Strategy
?I’m a fan of riding with the heavy hitters. My strategy centers on backing the league’s most dangerous lineups—the teams that can put up a crooked number in any inning. When you've got the Yankees, Dodgers, or Braves facing any team and especially a bottom-tier team, I’m not just looking for a win; I’m betting the run line.
?These teams have the firepower to blow the doors off a game, turning a simple victory into a massive payout. When they cover the spread, they don't just squeak by—they clear the fences by a mile. Looking at those run differentials so far this year of +47, +67, and +65, it’s clear that when the big bats show up against weak pitching, the favorites are a lock to cover big.
The Game Plan: Keep hunting those mismatches. When the elite bats meet a struggling bullpen, taking the spread is the play—because as you've seen, when they win, they tend to leave no doubt on the scoreboard.
Gents ..... Baseball Is a Grind. It Is a long season. None of us should be putting in large wagers this early in the season .If you have to bet , Limit your plays. Do you really need to have 8 MLB wagers a day ??
Fubah 2 is right .........Geez it isn't even May yet !
So far this year I have been pretty much only betting 3 team parleys. I take 3 different teams each OVER 2.5 runs
The pay out is always around even $ or on the plus side. And I am having good luck with it so far. I do not have to sweat out lead changes etc.
NY Yanks, Tampa Bay , Washington ( Yesterday a loss ) and Atlanta are usually good picks because they will score 3 plus runs quite often.
Also with this parley system, I look to fade teams with a high bullpen ERA also since starters are not even going 6 innings
Good Luck to all players.May the fix be with you
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Gents ..... Baseball Is a Grind. It Is a long season. None of us should be putting in large wagers this early in the season .If you have to bet , Limit your plays. Do you really need to have 8 MLB wagers a day ??
Fubah 2 is right .........Geez it isn't even May yet !
So far this year I have been pretty much only betting 3 team parleys. I take 3 different teams each OVER 2.5 runs
The pay out is always around even $ or on the plus side. And I am having good luck with it so far. I do not have to sweat out lead changes etc.
NY Yanks, Tampa Bay , Washington ( Yesterday a loss ) and Atlanta are usually good picks because they will score 3 plus runs quite often.
Also with this parley system, I look to fade teams with a high bullpen ERA also since starters are not even going 6 innings
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