0-3 yesterday, got slaughtered on 2 favs and an under. I hate betting on favs, and here it goes again.
24-26 (-3.48) YTD
2-9 (-7.33) K's
Pirates RL(+113) *2.00/2.26
Pirates -2.5(+167) *1.00/1.67
Irvin/Montgomery listed
We're breaking the #1 rule here, to not bet home teams on the runline. They won't bat in the 9th if they're winning. If it's tied you are fucked. This isn't a sharp thing to do.
Both pitchers have a high era. Although there are small indicators that one guy has pitched better than the other.
Jake Irvin has a 7.07 era, with a 5.27 FIP. Indicating that he's pitched slightly better than era shows us. Yet, still a gas can imo. His babip is .270, with a hard hit percentage of 52.5%. He's had good defense behind him, and possibly gotten "lucky" at times.
He's a fly ball pitcher. This isn't good when it's 81 degrees with 49% humidity, and winds blowing out at 10.5 mph to left center.
Mason Montgomery has a 6.14 era, but a FIP of 2.61. Indicating that he's done his job, and maybe gotten unlucky at times. He's allowed a babip of .571 which is ungodly high. He's allowed a hard hit percentage of 46.7%.
He is a ground ball pitcher. Take note of the weather conditions above. Unfortunately most of the hits off of him have gotten through the infield.
For the icing on the cake, I've had my eye on this team coming off a loss all year. They are resilient, and bounce back after a loss better than anyone in the bigs.
The Pirates this year are 6-1 after a loss. That lone loss coming at the beginning of the year when they started 0-2. In these games after a loss they have scored an average of 6.50 runs per game, and allowed 2.66 runs per game.
I don't care that I haven't done so well this year, I don't care that I went 0-3 yesterday. This is not an "on tilt bet". I'm merely not letting this spot pass me up.
Best of Luck
Good luck Sac! 
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