Play #1 - Brewer ML and UNDER 7 parlay x 3 to 1 x HALF U
-good luck catching up to the rookie's fastball Mariners!!
-MILW on a ridiculous run and I don't see it slowing ..... GILBERT has been good...something tells me I should just take the UNDER but I am seeing a shit ton of value in this parlay instead and green light is on!
Play #2 - Toronto ML x 1U
-Yankees throwing in the towel throwing this young pitcher against a patient and stalking Jays hitting team who all can hit well through the batting order except for Jiminez and he will have the night off likely
-Scherzer lives for this moments like this in his final career days just like Ozzy sang on his final concert ....God rest his soul I will miss OZZY!! Truly a legend as a rockstar/performer and good bloke/soul who lived life to the fullest and truthfully. REST IN PEACE OZZY!
Play #3 - Pirates - TIgers Under 8 x HALF U
- bats are silent in Tigerland and they send a good pitcher vs a terrible Pirates hitting team
Play #4 - Phillies Under 8.5 x HALF U
-Sanchez is a stud and Bosox on a long run of Unders....Phillies don't hit well vs good teams I find
Play #5 - Houston ML +85
-Astros hit lefties well and own EROD the pitcher
Strong lean to Texas -1.5 with DeGrom as they hit Ginn very well but I have been terrible with run lines this season....too many other good plays
Best plays coming up for me today after the Marlins OVER:
Over Cardinals-Rockies 11 runs x HALF U
-Pallante is withering so I expect him to cough up some runs since he is a contact pitcher
-minor leaguer starter who with their bullpen should cough up a ton ....12 runs and higher is likely here
UNDER SEATTLE 7.5 runs x 1U
-two in form tough pitchers and these teams like grinding type of games
JAYS UNDER 8.5 x HALF U
- I called this series to be an UNDER battle and its provening
-Fried wants redemption and probably will have the game plan to stymie the Jays.....starting to notice some Jays hitters not being disciplined at the plate namely Barger and Clement who they need to get on base and produce hits/runs
Houston +105 ML x HALF U is my leftie trender play - Dbacks have trouble with lefties and on a losing streak vs them and PFAADT has gotten hit hard by Houston in the playoffs (7 hits for 12 ABs...and I think PFAADT was in better form last year)
TIGERS getting bullied by Pirates....on a long terrible run like the Dodgers were/are.....lay off those teams
AL EAST is the best division, I don't care what anybody says. What happens when they play the best National league teams? They tend to win those series
ESPN RELATIVE POWER INDEX: (8 AL > 3 in Top 5 which I agree with)
- I could make a case to jumble the Top 4 but after that, I need to see more from those teams because their pitching stalls now either starters or bullpen or their defense in general
-watch games of the top 4 below and you see great baserunning, good defense and excellent bullpens which are 3 KEYS to winning it all in addition to timely hitting
1 Chicago Cubs .527
2 Toronto Blue Jays .524
3 Houston Astros .522
4 Milwaukee Brewers .520
5 New York Yankees .518
6 Detroit Tigers .518
7 Los Angeles Dodgers .518
8 Seattle Mariners .515
9 Philadelphia Phillies .514
10 San Diego Padres .510
11 New York Mets .510
12 Boston Red Sox .507
13 Tampa Bay Rays .506
14 Cleveland Guardians .504
15 St. Louis Cardinals .503
No idea who is going to win the Jays game....I lean to the UNDER 8.5 with two strong bullpens and the fact that Olsen has a 0.86 BA vs Toronto lineup for over 30 ABs...I know Lauer will pitch well but this Tiger team is normally good vs lefties but their whole hitting approach vs the Pirates was awful and they played terrible defense and didn't hustle. I watched highlights
Toronto does not take a moment off unless your name is Vladdy but lately he has hustled and been uber focused after rediscovering his stroke after working with Don Mattingly the hit god!
My favorite play> Cardinals OVER 8 x 1 U ... just 2 pitchers not in form and home team and visitor can both hit well
- I am doing local parlays with Jays UNDER 8.5 with some soccer games in various locales and Angels, Astros split
SWEET!! > done by the 3rd inning 
My favorite play> Cardinals OVER 8 x 1 U
...but throwing away parlay tickets with Tigers UNDER....JAYS #1 team in baseball since early May and can manufacture runs against sloppy teams or pitchers like nothing... damn. Last night, I was on Jays privately but changed my mind today
While I work on update my stats, I do have 2 plays I love today after digging into them last night....update on STREAKS stats later.. but in the meantime:
Yankees-Phillies UNDER 9.5 x HALF U
-Stroman has phenomenal stats especially preventing extra bases with the Phillies for over 100 ABs
-Phillies hitters/sluggers in a zone lately so a pure groundball pitcher like Stroman is what the Yanks need
-Yankees have hit Suarez occasionally well but I fully expect him to have his big game/everyone in America is watching kind of stuff today
Cincy Reds ML x 1U +76 (0.76 gain per $1 bet )
parlay: Jays +1.5 runs +75 with Orioles ML +38 x HALF U
(Rockies are putrid vs lefties and Trevor Rogers is a good one!)
-Jays are better than Tigers and want to keep winning....they have a habit in this stretch of 36-14 that they are on to taking down alpha pitchers for 3-5 runs and then shredding their bullpen
-Gausman outpitched Max Fried for the 2nd he lost to Jays and Yanks got blown away because Jays lineup 1-9 just keep grinding on you with patience at the plate and fantastic baserunning
FULL RESPECT for SKUBAL but Jays should get 2-3 runs and then shred a Tigers bullpen that they have scorched over 2 games now ....
Under CLEV-KC 9 runs x HALF U
-check out Williams record and stats vs KC ....wow
-Wacha's are good vs CLEV
-I lean Guardians but KC is starting to put the hammer down in the second half here and no idea if Clev is wanting to chase Detroit or a wildcard
KC with Bubic in the second game I like too and might play later .....Clev been terrible vs lefties lately
-see value in Merrill Kelly and Zona +74 but have enough plays
-check the weather in Seattle/LA ...if 75F or higher and wind blowing to outfield, jump on the Over with these two contact pitchers in my opinion
3 - 1 and nice profits.... stats are slow to update, sorry. Haven't been feeling well today and sleeping a lot
Nice to see the JAYS win and keep that edge that they have. Its really good baseball to watch and I seriously through Tarik was going to drag his other Tigers teammates across the finish line to help them overcome their 2- 13 stretch, now 2-14
Brewers and Jays ahead of the pack now....and both playing HUNGRY baseball with their pitching and hitting lineups
- scary thing about the Jays....they have had their Gold Glove second baseman out a long time
- they have had Anthony Santander a key slugger/hit machine out also for most of the season
- and ridiculous centerfielder Dalton Varsho out and he drives the ball too......but it hasn't mattered as 4 key bench players who are young and talented have fit in and hit the ball well and haven't been easy outs whatsoever and contributing on defense as well
-their bullpen is strong and talk of adding 2 arms
Hot teams:
1. Toronto 8 - 2
2. Miami 8 - 2
3. Texas 8 - 2
Cold teams:
1. Detroit 1 - 9
2. San Fran 3 - 7
Atlanta 3 - 7
Tampa 3 -7
NY Yankees 3 - 7
Baltimore 3- 7
My Plays of the Day instantly:
- I always eye the Sunday night game to see who is playing and pitching matchup
-UNDERS rule the day most of the time and Senga on the hill fits that mold and this new pitcher acquired by SF might be a gem as well
-I checked to see how many HRs have been hit so far in the series and it is only 1HR for 1RBI, despite high winds going to centrefield and tonight at 20 mph BUT...as a former golfer, I know that when you hit into a tail wind ....the higher you go sometimes the faster it falls at the end so exit velocity off the bat will matter here to prevent this so most balls hit out to the fences tonight would probably be a HR in most parks to counter the 'knock down wind effect' of such a fast wind sinking down from the sky and shooting across the plane of the earth..... balls hit into the gap however at a low trajectory will carry to the wall and quicker as well so outfielders better recognize quicker
Long story short, once I find out the umpire, I will adjust my UNDER units bet (perhaps increase) but here are my two plays so far on tonight's matchup:
Mets ML +83 x 1U to complete sweep
Under 8 +90 x HALF U
-Mets dominating and have a strong pitcher on the mound > if I see the right umpire for this situation, I will up my UNDER 8 to +1.5 U or 2U
Haven't looked at other games as I am into doing my data first ....
PINATA alert:
OVER 10 runs in Boston with wind blowing out to green monster > Dustin May - Walker Buehler pitchers 
x 1 U
Corona chilling alert (UNDERS):
UNDER 7.5 Skenes -Gallen x HALF U ....they may cut this one short due to weather after 5 innings also.....
UNDER 7.5 Woodruff-Perez x 1 U ...last game Woodruff started, I was curious why his game had a 6.5 total and then he gets a shutout..... Perez is a decent pitcher with killer day game numbers that are low and in July in general
-two teams playing well so expect a grinder
One more total play >> RAMOS is umpire for LAA-Seattle and Gilbert has been smoking hot in warm months on the mound and Hendricks is a ground ball pitcher
- RAMOS with 6.41 game total over 17 games 
- because its warm, I am not going over board on this
x HALF U +100 UNDER 8.5 runs
-------------------------------------------
Update on Mets umpire is Blakney > he has a high 7's runs per game total which is good
-totals of 9 are only 1-3 OVER
If you took Under 9 = 1.57 x 1 U
Under 8.5 = 1.74 << +74 is decent for a bigger bet so x 1 U
Under 8 = 1.90 or +90 << riskier but do-able and already have HALF U
HERE IS ANOTHER REASON FOR MY UPGRADE IN UNITS:
Oracle is famous for the shadow effect messing up hitters in late afternoon so I did some research and AI found this:
"Oracle Park's design, like many ballparks, aims to minimize the sun's glare during the game. However, the sun's position in the sky during late July afternoons can still cause shadows to move across the field, potentially affecting the batter's ability to see the ball clearly. "
Taking a gamble this enhances my chances along with the umpire assignment but no guarantees!
FUEGO!! >> betting UNDERS .... 3 - 1 on Totals today ...missed my PINATA play...shitttt!! haha
I have left:
NYM x 1U
NYM U8 x HALF U
NYM U8.5 x 1U
NYM U9 x 1U
Looking for the sweep on UNDERS today....we have shadows in Oracle Park, an ump with a 6.41 game total avg over 17 games and an in form Mets pitcher with an Under 2.00 era pitcher on the year vs a bullpen guy with good stuff and the best bullpen in baseball to have his back
-did I mention a cold knockdown wind blowing out to centrefield?
Like my chances, but this is baseball and anything can happen
Earlier today > 3 - 1 on Totals today ...missed my PINATA play
Sunday Night Game
NYM x 1U
NYM U8 x HALF U PUSH !
NYM U8.5 x 1U
NYM U9 x 1U
Sweet day > 5 - 1 - 1 on Totals / 1- 0 Sides
Going to work to get all data inputted and STREAK updates ready for betting on the next series.....
Over the last week or so.....STREAKS CONTINUING are only 82x and 85x they are broken so we are seeing more competitive series and the success is coming from the matchup
Lefthanders started the past week -10 days at a FADE rate of 1-4 only....meaning, teams that had lost two in a row or more to lefthanded starters were now BEATING lefthanded pitchers.
BUT....then the Arizona D-backs lost 4 in a row to lefthanded pitching this week and there have been two other lefthanders dominating teams that were on losing streaks so the LEFTHANDER beating the team on a losing streak vs them, continues.... it is back and red hot at 7 -4 now and 6 - 0 in the past 6 days alone
Best streak stats coming up next....
UPDATE ON STREAKS FOR MONDAY GAMES:
CONTINUED LOSING STREAK TO LEFTHANDERS has gone 8 -4 in the past 2 weeks and 6 - 0 the past 7 days
Lose vs Lefty starters (losing streaks extending over > 56% of the time)
Arizona continues a loss streak vs lefties (8 games and counting) ...WOW!
Tampa continues a loss streak vs lefties (5 games and counting)
Nationals continues a loss streak vs lefties (3 games and counting)
San Fran continues a loss streak vs lefties (3 games and counting)
Detroit start loss streak vs lefties (2 losses and counting)
Houston start loss streak vs lefties (2 losses and counting)
UNDER STREAK (wins under 54.5 % now) *** number of teams on list increasing
Arizona 5 games *** extended
Dodgers 4 games
Cincy 4 games
Pittsburgh 4 games
OVER STREAKS (keeps improving extending streaks! 54.5% now)
Atlanta 5 games*** extended
WIN STREAKS (reversing now to above 55 % extending streaks!)
NY Mets 7 games
Texas 6 games
Cincy 4 games
Oakland 4 games
LOSING STREAKS ( steady > 56% extending streaks )
Atlanta 5 games
Tampa 4 games
Houston 4 games
Monday Streak implications....
Arizona @ Detroit
-Zona on a long UNDER streak and feeble at the plate on the road.... send out Lefty vs Detroit on a 2 game losing streak vs ....and Detroit scuffling as well
Rays @ Yankees
-Rays on a 4 game losing streak ...longest I can remember this season and maybe even last year?
-Yankees scuffling a little too with pitching and defense issues
Dodgers @ Cincy
-never thought I would see the Dodgers on a 4 game UNDER and coincidently, so are the Reds on a 4 gamer....difference being, the Reds are playing really good baseball lately and winning regularly
Braves @ KC
-Atlanta on 5 game losing and OVER streak...coincidence?
KC heating up a little ....
Mets @Padres
-Mets are the hottest team in baseball next to the Jays and Brewers in general.....facing a righthander who is rumoured to be on the trading block perhaps > Dylan Cease
Cubs @ Brewers
-gritty pitching matchup to start (UNDER?) and this series will determine who is in 1st place in the division after its over
Nationals @ Houston
-Nationals facing a tough lefty on a losing streak vs lefties versus a team on a 4 game losing streak and hungry to get back to winning
Texas @ Angels
-hot team with ace on the mound vs a team that will be retooling at the trade deadline so distracted but have played some decent baseball vs tough opponents
What's wrong with SF? - they have been facing killer teams lately but now face the Pirates > losing streaks have become normal for a team that I thought had great pitching
-Pirates been pretty good in the last 6 games or so
Seattle @Oakland
-two hot teams....hot hitters on both and a hitters/HR ballpark...I expect some big scores in this series!!
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