Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: SUPER-HEAVY FAV Braves struggling "bigly" vs worst team in MLB Closed at around -350 home favs. Facing super awful .186 Rockies - who have a -212 run differential Braves down 1 - 7 in 8th inning Glad I stayed away. Now they are losing 10 - 1
Meanwhile, the surging RAYS are mauling the Mets to sweep their series!
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: SUPER-HEAVY FAV Braves struggling "bigly" vs worst team in MLB Closed at around -350 home favs. Facing super awful .186 Rockies - who have a -212 run differential Braves down 1 - 7 in 8th inning Glad I stayed away. Now they are losing 10 - 1
Meanwhile, the surging RAYS are mauling the Mets to sweep their series!
WAstros -132 *BB ...calculated +1.1 run edge WCubbies -166 *BB... calculated +1.3 run edge L DBacks -121 *BB ...calculated +1.3 run edge WA's/KC und 9 +103 ...calculated 7.3 runs give or take 1.5 runs
= 3 - 1 [2 - 1 *BB]
YTD: 53 - 40
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Father's Day, June 15: (pinnacle overnight lines)
WAstros -132 *BB ...calculated +1.1 run edge WCubbies -166 *BB... calculated +1.3 run edge L DBacks -121 *BB ...calculated +1.3 run edge WA's/KC und 9 +103 ...calculated 7.3 runs give or take 1.5 runs
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 10 gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know this for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day. There's other games to look at. I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts!
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team loses! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe
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. June 16
HOT STREAK WARNING!
Pepiot, Rays
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 10 gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know this for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day. There's other games to look at. I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts!
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team loses! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe
@fubah2 Do you think the TB bats can win this if Pepiot (heaven forbid) has a non quality outing?
Close call on that, JJ.
I have Tampa circled (plausible bet) with +0.9 run edge - provided Pepiot DOES NOT have a "bad outing" (ie, 4+ ER, or 3 ER with awful WHIP nearing 2.00, or 3 ER in less 5 ip) Tampa is the hottest team in MLB and stronger at the plate in this venue compared with O's - assuming each team plays to their averages. But if Pepiot struggles that likely makes this a coin-flipper. The line-odds are low on Tampa who should be favs, so the risk isn't too bad.
But the 10 straight outings without a bad one is the decision maker for me personally, and I will avoid the stress of guessing what may happen and just look at other games. A LIVE bet on TB is a possibility though if the game is tied with at least 3 runs each thru 5.0 full innings.
BoL with your bets tonight!
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Quote Originally Posted by JJWoods:
@fubah2 Do you think the TB bats can win this if Pepiot (heaven forbid) has a non quality outing?
Close call on that, JJ.
I have Tampa circled (plausible bet) with +0.9 run edge - provided Pepiot DOES NOT have a "bad outing" (ie, 4+ ER, or 3 ER with awful WHIP nearing 2.00, or 3 ER in less 5 ip) Tampa is the hottest team in MLB and stronger at the plate in this venue compared with O's - assuming each team plays to their averages. But if Pepiot struggles that likely makes this a coin-flipper. The line-odds are low on Tampa who should be favs, so the risk isn't too bad.
But the 10 straight outings without a bad one is the decision maker for me personally, and I will avoid the stress of guessing what may happen and just look at other games. A LIVE bet on TB is a possibility though if the game is tied with at least 3 runs each thru 5.0 full innings.
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Closed at around -350 home favs.
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