My tangibles (stats) suggest Atlanta should have about +0.9 run edge over Padres tonight. But I thought they had an even bigger edge last night (so I bet them twice!) and it was a friggin' 
The current odds are actually on the fringe of a take for that amount of edge. They do have a better chance to win than lose but do I wanna risk that amount of juice on an edge which isn't GREAT......good yes, but not great.
The "intangibles" portion of my capping (intuition/experience) are telling me to back off largely focusing on the starters. Buehler has SUCKED recently! But he was exceptional prior to this 3 game stretch and against good offenses! So is the recent stretch indicative of his pitching abilities that we can expect the rest of the year including tonight? Or does he bounce back to the form we KNOW he is capable of...... Lopez for Atlanta has decent numbers ....SO FAR. If he had a longer consecutive history as a starter this year (ie, not broken by 2 months of reliever duty) then I would feel more comfortable. Small sample size always gets my caution light flashing. And he's coming off a bad outing. Sure, he may rebound! Absolutely!!! But so too may Buehler. Either might rebound off bad performances or either could implode and lose.
Well Atlanta has the better chance, but for me I don't want to risk that amount of juice and will be just fine if it ends up I passed on a win.
My YTD with OVERS is 25 - 24
ROCKER is coming off a couple B-2-B POOR performances, AT HOME! He may rebound; he may not. If he was already a GREAT starter (ie, a very low WHIP) I would assume a bounce back....but it's a coin-flipper when we are talking a mediocre dude. I'm taking the mid-position and assuming more or less mediocrity. Not bad, but not great against a GOOD offense.
GL FUb, I know a thing or two about feeling like Charlie Brown lol ; esp when it comes to capping, life… keep up the awesome job buddy 
Did you have other bets as well?
Hot Forum Topics
