🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

Monday, June 08 results:

W Yankees +113 @pinn "value bet"
 L   NYY/CLV un 8.5 -140 alt@pinn
 L   BoSox -106  @pinn
W Seattle -120 @pinn
push  Wash/SF ov 7 -178 @pinn *BB pushed
 L   Wash/SF ov 8 -110 @SIA   not a *BB at this integer
W Both W/SF to score 2+ runs? YES -235 @SIA *BB
 L   Cinci +120 @pinn   "value bet"
W Houston -119 @pinn   *BB
W Brewskies -149 @pinn *BB

@fubah2

 Not bad Bud.

Make note that FEDDE is the bulk reliever for CWS today after lefty Eisert (1.21 WHIP) is the opening act.

Note, my "value bets" split on Monday, which is FINE by me!   They are coin-flippers!  Only 50/50 chance to win. They are not expected to win, just to split W/L over the season while getting significant PLUS $$$! 

To date:   +19.56u

Excellent strategy with positive result 

In Baltimore, I wanna take Seattle again but having second thoughts.  They are facing a lefty today (righty yesterday) and they are weak against lefties but strong against righties.  Orioles have two very good righty RP available after Rogers gets bounced, though they will face a right-heavy lineup. Yet, Orioles may have a very thin edge at the plate.  I have Mariners rated for a slim +0.6 run edge (it was +0.7 yesterday) but the game line makes this a borderline call.

LEANING Seattle ......might wait for LIVE action...

If I can get a line of ~ -110 to 113 or so I would likely grab Seattle in a close call.  However this may have to wait until the early innings...They only have a small/modest edge here - maybe 56% chance to win, imho - so the odds need to be LOW or pass.  Gun to my head I would take a risk on Seattle but thankfully I still have the option to hold off and watch the early innings just to be sure... I'll be watching to see if GILBERT holds up well vs the O's bats, because I believe if he does, the Mariner bats *WILL* bounce Rogers at some point and then it may be a battle against the O's top relievers, depending how long GILBERT lasts...

In my humble analysis, tonight in Cleveland it all boils down to whether or not a very GOOD starter (COLE) implodes on the mound vs the Cleveland bats.  That's the #1 Q.  YES, all other considerations *ARE* important too....but this is the most important single issue.  If he does not implode, chances are very high Yankees win.  If he DOES implode, the edge swings to Cleveland, although it could still be a battle.   

So, will he?

COLE was/is an ELITE starter. We all know this.  And he holds up very well when opps throw a bunch of lefty bats against his right arm, like tonight!  But this season (coming off major injury and a year off) is still a bit of a questionmark... His first 2 outings this year he pitched VERY WELL!  EXCELLENT in fact! 

But last week against this very same Cleveland squad - in Yankee Stadium - they got to him!  Over 5.1 ip he managed only 2Ks and was tagged for 3 HOMERS and 4 ER in a 5 - 4 loss.  So, 2 GOOD starts then that BAD one vs Cleveland.  After tonight he may be 3 good outings vs just 1 bad (ie, GOOD pitcher), or  2 - 2 (ie, mediocre pitcher)

SEATTLE -112 @pinn       but no way this is even close to a *Best Bet

Coin-tosser.   PASS!

@fubah2

 I decided on Seattle. Was concerned about the lineup, but still like them in this situation.

Philly @TOR I have only a thin edge to Philly, and the current odds makes this a coin-flipper.....so no bet.

Minny @TIGGERS is in rain delay and may get ppd.....but I have a pass on this one anyway BECAUSE Detroit is just too difficult to peg... Roughly 2.8 rpg at home since May 1 but recently a revival at the plate    Doesn't work for me.  Could just be a random "good run" that will disappear again....I need more consistency or PASS.

 So as you can see, I am taking the chance  (at low odds) that a former ELITE starter may still be that good and will NOT implode again vs the same Cleveland lineup... 

@fubah2

Marlins -135 @pinn   *BB   ...have them tabbed for a solid +1.3 run edge

This presumes MEYERS does not implode at any point...  ....bats close to even and Marlins should have an edge in the pen to back up MEYERS....but ya never know....

OK.....so games just under way and what am I already LOSING 

Marlins trail....Seattle about to get rocked!.....NYY do nothing in their half....

Dodgers Team Total 1st Five UNDER 0.5 +162

GL  on your plays @fubah2 

LIVE Guardians Team Total 1st Five UNDER 0.5 +190

Amazing METS -127 @pinn  *BB  ...Mets should be a solid +1.0 run edge***

***but this is risky!!!.... this presumes PERALTA does not pull another stinker and implode AT HOME while facing a mediocre Cards lineup.... Bats and bullpen otherwise should favor the AMAZINGS....but ya never know with these guys, especially FREDDY....

Bet small if at all.

@LVTruck

And you were SPOT ON! 

@NetProfit2023

I’m not trying to be the Covers police, but I don’t really see the benefit of posting a live bet s or any bets in this thread 

We’re trying to have one specific discussion in this thread. If you want to post those plays, it probably makes more sense to start your own thread, post your record or not , and let people follow along there.

That keeps this one cleaner and easier to track.

That’s gay bro