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FOUND ANOTHER GEM!!!

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Alright guys, again I rarely post unless I find an absolutely great game I cannot pass up on....so tonight the bet I see being almost a "lock" (I hate that word) is the REDS.  They finally found their bats last night and as hard as it is backing a bad team, I feel pritty comfortable with a stud like Cueto on the mound.  This is just one of those spots.  Public in love with the cards tonight but its a mistake IMO.... REDs come thru in a big way tonight  something like 6-2 final......I am going 3 times my avg wager on this pick....

CINCY REDS ML (-120) 3 units

good luck everyone
 
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Posted: #2
love it...
 
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Posted: #3
bol you will need it
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
it's suppose to rain there 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by allamay1608:

bol you will need it

 

the guy posted his pick with a write up...

 

that reply is just immature and disrespectful...you have a different opinion, then tell him what it is and why with the same courtesy he gave in giving the play or keep your dumb comments to yourself...

 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by allamay1608:

bol you will need it

LOL I THINK YOU WILL TOO.  DID YOU RESEARCH THIS GAME???

votto and phillips have the flu, i know votto will sit/ not sure about phillips

cueto career vs cardinals.  0-2 with 16.19 ERA 3.298 Whip, both of those games coming last year. while mr. pineiro(whom i don't like tailing) career numbers are 3-0 with 2.22 era and 1.06 whip.  3 of those games coming last year and once was against mr cueto.

 
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Posted: #7
skin..the guy whose quote u used.....uh....he likes the cards...
 
hence he told the guy who started this thread who picked the reds that he needed LUCK...
 
ha
 
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Posted: #8
lol alright guys its just my opinion on this game....if it wins great if it loses, thats fine too....obviously can go either way but IMO cincy will come thru.....we will see I guess.....bol newayz
 
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Posted: #9
You may be right, but Cuerto's lifetime 16.20 ERA the Cards is cause for concern.  Also Votto & Phillips are out for the Reds.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #10
cueto might just shut them down tonight....I dont think ppl realize just how good this guy is......that was last yrs stats....diff pitcher....
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

You may be right, but Cuerto's lifetime 16.20 ERA the Cards is cause for concern.  Also Votto & Phillips are out for the Reds.
 
 
 

Yet the Reds are favored 
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

You may be right, but Cuerto's lifetime 16.20 ERA the Cards is cause for concern.  Also Votto & Phillips are out for the Reds.
 
 
 

 

jimmy as I said above...tonights cards team has 20 at bats total against cueto and 1 hr, so I dont think they were responsible for the 16+ era.....and votto and phillips were out LAST night so the oddsmakers already have them priced in....and cincy is still a favorite and everyone loves the cards...

 

just seems like thats what they are trying to accomplish with this line...

 
Legend
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Posted: #13
Cueto is a fine pitcher. But that doesn't mean he don't have his off-days. Personally, i don't think its a good day to back Cueto. Especially w/ some Reds mainstay out of the line-up.
 
You can't overlook what Dave Duncan have done for [slightly above] average pitchers like Kyle Lohse and Joel Pineiro. He's created a winning rotation.
 
Bookmakers aren't smarter than any amatuer or pro handicapper. They're just robots w/ numbers. They fuck up on Yankees lines and most lines 75% of the time. 25% of the time the line or spread is right on and you guys think they're geniuses. Give me a break. Don't believe me? Check out the NBA spreads the past 3 weeks.
 
I don't give a rats-ass if the Reds are the fave here. Handicap the game.
 
Don't be surprised if the Reds lose value in the next 1.5 hours.
 
Whether the line is moving the right way, we'll see to that after the game.
 
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Posted: #14
glad i am on the cards...
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane:

Cueto is a fine pitcher. But that doesn't mean he don't have his off-days. Personally, i don't think its a good day to back Cueto. Especially w/ some Reds mainstay out of the line-up.
 
You can't overlook what Dave Duncan have done for [slightly above] average pitchers like Kyle Lohse and Joel Pineiro. He's created a winning rotation.
 
Bookmakers aren't smarter than any amatuer or pro handicapper. They're just robots w/ numbers. They fuck up on Yankees lines and most lines 75% of the time. 25% of the time the line or spread is right on and you guys think they're geniuses. Give me a break. Don't believe me? Check out the NBA spreads the past 3 weeks.
 
I don't give a rats-ass if the Reds are the fave here. Handicap the game.
 
Don't be surprised if the Reds lose value in the next 1.5 hours.
 
Whether the line is moving the right way, we'll see to that after the game.

 

fair enough but comparing a PUBLIC team like the yankees and what linesmakers do a Yankee line KNOWING that they are gonna get Yankee bets regardless is a different animal than the REDS....

 

linesmakers have to give the yanks value ....cause idiots will bet them no matter what they do.....they know that

 
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Posted: #16
 
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Posted: #17
and bookmakers dont make the lines...
 
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Posted: #18
I think Vince is spot on with that.  Yanks example cannot be compared to this situation at all IMO.  Also, I am not making my bet based on public perception (altho that does make me more comfortable).  I am making this pick based on a couple of things.....for one i think the reds do really have an edge....for 2 i think they will carry the momentum from yesterday.....and I am not really overly impressed by the cards......but let me also add that linemakers without a doubt know more than any of us.  I have been betting for nearly 10 yrs and if u look closely at the lines, there is a lot of pyschology behind them.   Either way, win or lose tonight I will make this bet 10 times out of 10......but bol newayz
 
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Posted: #19
vincenzococotti - Okay. Linemakers. Oddsmakers.
 
I'm fine with your rhetoric.
 
Again. Don't be surprised if the managers at the sportsbooks adjust the limits on the Cardinals/Reds match because the Cardinals are getting pounded.
 
Matter of fact, the line have moved at least a full .10 cents in favor of the Cardinals.
 
Once when people get a hold of the Reds line-up, i wouldn't be surprised of the Cardinals become the favorite. I highly doubt that because there are always contrarian bettors who will jump in at the most opportune moment.
 
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Posted: #20
Pasha-will-WIN - "...let me also add that linemakers without a doubt know more than any of us."
 
False. Just a plain false statement.
 
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by vincenzococotti:

 

jimmy as I said above...tonights cards team has 20 at bats total against cueto and 1 hr, so I dont think they were responsible for the 16+ era.....and votto and phillips were out LAST night so the oddsmakers already have them priced in....and cincy is still a favorite and everyone loves the cards...

 

just seems like thats what they are trying to accomplish with this line...

Your point is well taken.  I'm simply offering an opposing view.  I'm not wagering on this game at all, but if I were, I'd play UNDER 4.5 F5.  If I were forced to pick a winnier, I'd roll with St. Louis.  I think they'll eek out a 1 run victory tonight.

BTW, my top play is Boston.  Shields has always struggled at Fenway, and with the wind blowing out tonight, I think they bring the hammer against him tonight.  Sox easy IMHO.

 

 
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Posted: #22
kane...np potato potahto...lol
 
i agree the pubic should take the cards higher over the next hour..but understnad votto and phillips didnt play last night and werent expected tonight....this is no suprise to anyone....
 
i think the books will keep creeping up the line  as long as they are getting some even action...
 
but also realize the "smart" ahem, well lets just say 90% of professionals already have made their incorrect line wagers in at the early lines to take advantage of them...and based on your views I'd say the pros should have seen this value here and moved the line a bunch at sometime today....isnt it weird they didnt "pounce" on the incorrect value, thats because thre wasnt any....so it didnt happen....the public reading the sports section on the way home on the train may move this line when they get home from work, but who cares about them......
 
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Posted: #23
I think STL is the bet tonight.....
 
I know that Cueto has been good this year but one thing I have learned is not to bet on a pitcher that is doing great the past few games when he sucks against the team he is playing tonight.....I think this line is a trap for Cincy.....Cueto is 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA and played great against Pitt and he has allowed only 2 runs in 26 innings but he is 0-2 with a 16.20 ERA against STL......also Cincy has guys hurt......Pineiro is 4-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in four career starts against the Reds.....
 
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Posted: #24
.... I recieved a whole year of handicapping lessons in one thread... I think?  NP for me...loui batts scare me, but rooting for ya pasha!!!
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Pasha-will-WIN:

cueto might just shut them down tonight....I dont think ppl realize just how good this guy is......that was last yrs stats....diff pitcher....

 

and your probably one of the guys who would take a team thats 0-10 against one team saying "they are due".... fact of the matter is history has a way of repeating itself

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