Because holy shit under bettors must be making a killing.
Pitchers have been dominating lately. Across MLB, we've seen a sharp rise in velocity, better pitch tunneling, and devastating breaking stuff thanks to modern analytics and biomechanics. Combine that with aggressive bullpen usage and defensive shifts (even post-ban adjustments), and it's no surprise that offense is struggling to keep up.
Scoring has been down overall, and a lot of games are going under the betting totals as a result. It's a pitcher's league right now, and if you're smart you've been taking advantage of that. I think you can blindly bet unders each day just based on your gut without a second of research and either be breaking even or in the black.
Thoughts?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Because holy shit under bettors must be making a killing.
Pitchers have been dominating lately. Across MLB, we've seen a sharp rise in velocity, better pitch tunneling, and devastating breaking stuff thanks to modern analytics and biomechanics. Combine that with aggressive bullpen usage and defensive shifts (even post-ban adjustments), and it's no surprise that offense is struggling to keep up.
Scoring has been down overall, and a lot of games are going under the betting totals as a result. It's a pitcher's league right now, and if you're smart you've been taking advantage of that. I think you can blindly bet unders each day just based on your gut without a second of research and either be breaking even or in the black.
Its because the new era of baseball is all or nothing, HR swings every at bat. Just look how teams are scoring runs (HR). If HRs are not working, games are going under. As weather temps increase, I can imagine the runs will go up, but books will adjust quickly. That would be a great time to handicap, the transition time frame.
Pitching is not that great but for a select few, bullpens are garbage, besides a select few. batting AVG is below par beside a select few. The pitchers are throwing 80+ pitches in 5 innings, bad placement and to much contact, its just hitters are fouling off more balls, trying for the HR.
If somehow MLB players turned back the clock and had small ball, role players, these pitchers:
1. Would go deeper in games in relation to pitch count- more balls in play and defense doing the work. *Foul ball scenario in modern MLB
2. Would have worst ERAs based on small ball tactics. And look at some of these starting pitcher ERAs WOW! 3/4+ and only pitching 5 innings on AVG.
I extra inning rule is a joke. Guy starts on second: Sac bunt to advance runner? NOPE swing for the fence or Guy don't know how to bunt. Years ago this would have been a no-brainer, finely executed tactic. Now days, the same guy who started on 2nd base, 3 outs later- still standing on 2nd base.
The SF are a great example of a mixture of players, CHC are doing well will role players, steals and small ball, BOS still plays mid-level small ball, HOU and so on.
In a nut shell, warmer weather, shit bullpens and small ball teams will start making the totals increase.
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Its because the new era of baseball is all or nothing, HR swings every at bat. Just look how teams are scoring runs (HR). If HRs are not working, games are going under. As weather temps increase, I can imagine the runs will go up, but books will adjust quickly. That would be a great time to handicap, the transition time frame.
Pitching is not that great but for a select few, bullpens are garbage, besides a select few. batting AVG is below par beside a select few. The pitchers are throwing 80+ pitches in 5 innings, bad placement and to much contact, its just hitters are fouling off more balls, trying for the HR.
If somehow MLB players turned back the clock and had small ball, role players, these pitchers:
1. Would go deeper in games in relation to pitch count- more balls in play and defense doing the work. *Foul ball scenario in modern MLB
2. Would have worst ERAs based on small ball tactics. And look at some of these starting pitcher ERAs WOW! 3/4+ and only pitching 5 innings on AVG.
I extra inning rule is a joke. Guy starts on second: Sac bunt to advance runner? NOPE swing for the fence or Guy don't know how to bunt. Years ago this would have been a no-brainer, finely executed tactic. Now days, the same guy who started on 2nd base, 3 outs later- still standing on 2nd base.
The SF are a great example of a mixture of players, CHC are doing well will role players, steals and small ball, BOS still plays mid-level small ball, HOU and so on.
In a nut shell, warmer weather, shit bullpens and small ball teams will start making the totals increase.
You are absolutely correct !! If a guy was taking every under everyday waaaay ahead right now .. I’ve been watching very closely myself this last week .. some of these teams are just automatic unders .. the current series of cin/pitt sf/kc auto unders .. last night unders were 11-3 .. annoying for over bettors .. better off waiting for early July -August when the humidity hits and balls start to fly
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@djkevLV
You are absolutely correct !! If a guy was taking every under everyday waaaay ahead right now .. I’ve been watching very closely myself this last week .. some of these teams are just automatic unders .. the current series of cin/pitt sf/kc auto unders .. last night unders were 11-3 .. annoying for over bettors .. better off waiting for early July -August when the humidity hits and balls start to fly
Way too many hitters are taking 2-strike pitches - sometimes right down the middle of the plate. They are guessing with 2 strikes instead of protecting the plate.
HP umpires are horribly inconsistent with their strike zones.
Starters only have to go 6 innings, so they don't have to pace themselves.
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Way too many hitters are taking 2-strike pitches - sometimes right down the middle of the plate. They are guessing with 2 strikes instead of protecting the plate.
HP umpires are horribly inconsistent with their strike zones.
Starters only have to go 6 innings, so they don't have to pace themselves.
Holy shit Dan thanks for this, exactly what I was looking for, and very thoughtful insights from everyone in this thread.
Last 30 days has been brutal for over bettors and a dream for under bettors, I wonder if this will continue into the next 30 days or if weather changes and other factors will pull things back in a line a bit.
Whatever side you are on, good luck to you! It looks like for the foreseeable future under bettors will continue their trip down easy street while over bettors should be extra cautious and selective.
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@Luckydan
Holy shit Dan thanks for this, exactly what I was looking for, and very thoughtful insights from everyone in this thread.
Last 30 days has been brutal for over bettors and a dream for under bettors, I wonder if this will continue into the next 30 days or if weather changes and other factors will pull things back in a line a bit.
Whatever side you are on, good luck to you! It looks like for the foreseeable future under bettors will continue their trip down easy street while over bettors should be extra cautious and selective.
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