Posted:
#26
Nothing Fugazi about the money anybody is losing. 
Do you believe that sports wagering is Fugazi??
Posted:
#28
JD only 1.8% win at sports betting..........I've always told people the best thing to do is not gamble..............Every play I've played since 2004 has been posted and a accurate record kept.......I'm in that 1.8% but if you done believe just go back and look at every play I've ever played...........People like you will never win with a negative attitude though so maybe you should give it up..........I've had friends play with me for over 20 years and rare do I talk about it.........I do let my plays do the talking though but I feel the need to say something sometimes though........................Have a Good weekend :) Knock!
Posted:
#31
I've posted at 4 different sites since 2004...........No typo on figure at all, it's $100 bet per * bet and I'm a Dog player in all sports 80% of the time.............When you're a dog player in baseball the Win loss record means nothing.............I think if my record wasn't right I would be called out on it..........Have a Good day, Knock!
Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by lvsportpro:
sometimes I think about betting one game a week -- and putting a larger amount on it -- how hard is it to pick one winner a week, lol
picking your spots instead of going hogwild is always sound advice - but you cannot control the frequency, schedule and availability of strong value plays - there could be 3 or 4 in one day and zero for a whole week.sometimes I think about betting one game a week -- and putting a larger amount on it -- how hard is it to pick one winner a week, lol
To force fit "one play a day" or "one game a week" when there are 3 similar plays that meet your criteria and you end up going 2-1 and the only one you played is the loser because it was slightly stronger.... that's discipline in reverse.
Just being devil's advocate here...
The pen is mightier than the pigs
Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by knockonwood:
Bottom line is Vegas controls when you Win and when you lose.............I've had over 60 winning seasons in all sports and less than 10 losing seasons in the past 10 years...........Everyone of them have been posted but you better learn to play on Vegas's side and know when..........I'm finishing another Winning season in Baseball and off the a Winning season in the NFL............Very rare do I lose to the book and don't plan on starting...........Vegas sets the line for you to Win or lose, that's all you need to know...............The public only wins when Vegas allows it and that's just a fact...........Wishing You the Best in the Future!!! Knock!
Bottom line is Vegas controls when you Win and when you lose.............I've had over 60 winning seasons in all sports and less than 10 losing seasons in the past 10 years...........Everyone of them have been posted but you better learn to play on Vegas's side and know when..........I'm finishing another Winning season in Baseball and off the a Winning season in the NFL............Very rare do I lose to the book and don't plan on starting...........Vegas sets the line for you to Win or lose, that's all you need to know...............The public only wins when Vegas allows it and that's just a fact...........Wishing You the Best in the Future!!! Knock!
I agree Knock. It feels so good to be on Vegas's side and some games you know right away.
Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by Mathwiz:
Post # 16 and post # 8 are absolutely correct. But Post #8 tells it exactly the way it is. He mentions everything which is 100% true. From degenerates, to Money Management, to, the less you play the more you win.
Post # 16 and post # 8 are absolutely correct. But Post #8 tells it exactly the way it is. He mentions everything which is 100% true. From degenerates, to Money Management, to, the less you play the more you win.
is most likey commenting on this from post #8: "90% of gamblers are degenerates and do the more games you play the less chance you have to win because of the Vig"
I will assume Davemsh just didn't state it the way he really meant it. Happens. Because literally it's not true.
It's a zero sum game when you bet a $1,000 on one game or 4 games at $250 - the vig is the same. Are we talking real math here math wiz? I single you out although you are not the original poster because you have the word "math" in your name. 
It seems that you two are talking about players who pick @ <53% (assuming 10/11 odds) and yes the more they play (flat betting $ amt across picks) the more they lose. That's basic math.
But if you have a player hitting >53% (flat betting $ amt across picks) the more they play the more they win. Basic math again.
I guess if we are only considering <53% handicappers then what you say is true.
But there is another group....
The pen is mightier than the pigs
Posted:
#37
... the group say someone like Alan Boston and his buddies about 10-15 years ago in Vegas pounding the sportsbooks, very repected cappers betting 10,20,30K a game and as soon as they got paid they pushed the money back through the window putting it back in play. They would play sometimes 10 or more games a day.
The pen is mightier than the pigs
Posted:
#40
You have to outwork the linemaker.You must know things that he or his AI doesn't know.
Last night's Houston at Texas game was a perfect example of that
The Rangers had off Thursday while the Astros played in Chicago.Texas was opening a home stand.The game opened up with Texas as a +113 dog with an over-under of 9.5.
Home dogs were 3-0,ytd. in meeting the conditions of an o/u 8 and above,day off advantage,and starting price of no more than +122,while opening a home stand playing a team not starting on a road trip.
Now,they're 4-0.
If you're not willing to do this sort of work,your chances are diminished.
Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by DavidGurney:
You have to outwork the linemaker.You must know things that he or his AI doesn't know.
bro it was random/destiny you just got lucky
You have to outwork the linemaker.You must know things that he or his AI doesn't know.
Last night's Houston at Texas game was a perfect example of that
The Rangers had off Thursday while the Astros played in Chicago.Texas was opening a home stand.The game opened up with Texas as a +113 dog with an over-under of 9.5.
Home dogs were 3-0,ytd. in meeting the conditions of an o/u 8 and above,day off advantage,and starting price of no more than +122,while opening a home stand playing a team not starting on a road trip.
Now,they're 4-0.
If you're not willing to do this sort of work,your chances are diminished.
Posted:
#42
Quote Originally Posted by DavidGurney:
You have to outwork the linemaker.You must know things that he or his AI doesn't know.
You have to outwork the linemaker.You must know things that he or his AI doesn't know.
Last night's Houston at Texas game was a perfect example of that
The Rangers had off Thursday while the Astros played in Chicago.Texas was opening a home stand.The game opened up with Texas as a +113 dog with an over-under of 9.5.
Home dogs were 3-0,ytd. in meeting the conditions of an o/u 8 and above,day off advantage,and starting price of no more than +122,while opening a home stand playing a team not starting on a road trip.
Now,they're 4-0.
If you're not willing to do this sort of work,your chances are diminished.
Where do you even find that kind of data
Posted:
#43
Home dog at + 150 or below, temperature more than 90 degrees, attendance more than 31,000, sunset at 8:18 p.m., When Domino's Pizza delivers your pizza on time, and the away team plays the night before in Chicago, either Cubs or White Sox, it doesn't matter. The home team is 22 - 0 when that happens. That's why Texas won last night 6 - 4
Posted:
#45
There is some good advice here especially about picking your spots based on what your system highlights as potential plays. It is true you might have 4 games on a given day or zero for a week.
Everything depends on your system. What is so important about having a system is that it expunges three criteria which lead the great majority of the betting population astray.
Firstly, it takes away gut instincts, ie making reckless plays based on a biased emotional attitude. Your system dictates the play - not you! You enter data and the system and associated line movement do the rest. No emotional attachment.
Secondly, by having a system, you can specialise in a certain type of betting. I see it here too often, people playing overs and unders, first 5's, 1st inning only and parlays etc. How can you ever get better or know if your lines are betting than Vegas and what to do when the market moves, if you are betting on a swarm of varying betting types. How can you backtrack your system and measure its effectiveness if it is analysing a vast array of criteria? You can't, it's as simple as that. Become a specialist in a certain type of play.
Thirdly, money management. The system will limit how much you spend according to what you predetermined. No rash emotional plays.
Your system is a market analysis program of a specific betting type; you may as well be a stockbroker and his client rolled into one. That's how you should think of it. Baseball is the stockexchange and you are a long term investor. If you don't have a proven system of a specific betting type which is tracked and verified, then be prepared to lose in the long term. It will teach you discipline and patience; two attributes very few baseball investors possess.
Everything depends on your system. What is so important about having a system is that it expunges three criteria which lead the great majority of the betting population astray.
Firstly, it takes away gut instincts, ie making reckless plays based on a biased emotional attitude. Your system dictates the play - not you! You enter data and the system and associated line movement do the rest. No emotional attachment.
Secondly, by having a system, you can specialise in a certain type of betting. I see it here too often, people playing overs and unders, first 5's, 1st inning only and parlays etc. How can you ever get better or know if your lines are betting than Vegas and what to do when the market moves, if you are betting on a swarm of varying betting types. How can you backtrack your system and measure its effectiveness if it is analysing a vast array of criteria? You can't, it's as simple as that. Become a specialist in a certain type of play.
Thirdly, money management. The system will limit how much you spend according to what you predetermined. No rash emotional plays.
Your system is a market analysis program of a specific betting type; you may as well be a stockbroker and his client rolled into one. That's how you should think of it. Baseball is the stockexchange and you are a long term investor. If you don't have a proven system of a specific betting type which is tracked and verified, then be prepared to lose in the long term. It will teach you discipline and patience; two attributes very few baseball investors possess.
Posted:
#46
Quote Originally Posted by Mathwiz:
Home dog at + 150 or below, temperature more than 90 degrees, attendance more than 31,000, sunset at 8:18 p.m., When Domino's Pizza delivers your pizza on time, and the away team plays the night before in Chicago, either Cubs or White Sox, it doesn't matter. The home team is 22 - 0 when that happens. That's why Texas won last night 6 - 4
I thought everyone knew: Dominos been replaced by Grub Hub delivery of KFC in the American League since the balls got juiced ASB 2015. You can back track it in SDQL if you don't believe.Home dog at + 150 or below, temperature more than 90 degrees, attendance more than 31,000, sunset at 8:18 p.m., When Domino's Pizza delivers your pizza on time, and the away team plays the night before in Chicago, either Cubs or White Sox, it doesn't matter. The home team is 22 - 0 when that happens. That's why Texas won last night 6 - 4
(HD and line>=105) AL and (GHUB = ON TIME and DEL=KFC and NOT Original Recipe) and season>=ASB 2015?show_games=no mashed potatoes
The pen is mightier than the pigs
Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by Mathwiz:
Home dog at + 150 or below, temperature more than 90 degrees, attendance more than 31,000, sunset at 8:18 p.m., When Domino's Pizza delivers your pizza on time, and the away team plays the night before in Chicago, either Cubs or White Sox, it doesn't matter. The home team is 22 - 0 when that happens. That's why Texas won last night 6 - 4
youd still do better than any system Home dog at + 150 or below, temperature more than 90 degrees, attendance more than 31,000, sunset at 8:18 p.m., When Domino's Pizza delivers your pizza on time, and the away team plays the night before in Chicago, either Cubs or White Sox, it doesn't matter. The home team is 22 - 0 when that happens. That's why Texas won last night 6 - 4
Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:
knockonwood- Thanks for your concern. But, I'm a realist. I bet for fun. At the end of the day, I just hope to break even. I have the disposable income to do so.
knockonwood- Thanks for your concern. But, I'm a realist. I bet for fun. At the end of the day, I just hope to break even. I have the disposable income to do so.
I will look out for your plays in the future. You only have 600 posts in 15 years. So I'm a little suspicious.
You are a realist. You bet for "fun". And you just hope to "break even". Yet you're calling out the people in this thread who seem to know more than you. Hilarious post buddy. Which bookie do you work for? 
Posted:
#50
When it comes to sports betting, you are your worst enemy. Even though its obvious how to do it, we all break the rules. Sports betting is one of the most profitable if you can control yourself and control the aspect of betting instead of letting betting control you and your life. This is a great article all bettors must read goo.gl/Q8fWhR You can easily tell if a bettor is a winning bettor or a losing bettor just based on his personality and how he carries himself.
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