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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    CHASE THE PLAYOFFS... RD.1 OCT 5-12

    «First Previous 222324 ... 293031 Next Last»
    js4u
    schiman
    Moth61
    McShady
    semperfi19
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    Participants:
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    «First Previous 222324 ... 293031 Next Last»
     
    js4u
    js4u
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 2:09 PM ET #526

    semperfi19  May I ask why SF ML?  Doesn't the Reds own Zito?
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    semperfi19  May I ask why SF ML?  Doesn't the Reds own Zito?
     
    schiman
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 2:26 PM ET #527

    PLG - That's a great chase for the year and requires very little baseball knowledge (for guys like me ) ! 

    I just ran this year's numbers for chasing the O/U for the grand Salami - if you chased the opposite side every night, you would had 91 chases, max bet would be 5 nights (so -19.3units w/ juice to hit 1 unit).   You're low on the year would have been -8units in early April and you're Oct 1 figure would have been +90 units. 

    Supposing you couldn't stomach the 2K bet when your units are CNotes, and you restart after losing 3 times in a row.  You would still have been at 57 units on Oct 1.

    Caveat - I don't have the actual salami lines, I just totaled the runs scored vs the game totals by day.  I believe the actual salami lines are about 8% higher than the sum of the totals.  Even factoring in 8% bumps and restarting after 3 losses still gives you about 30units in Oct....Hmm, worth a try next year.

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    PLG - That's a great chase for the year and requires very little baseball knowledge (for guys like me ) ! 

    I just ran this year's numbers for chasing the O/U for the grand Salami - if you chased the opposite side every night, you would had 91 chases, max bet would be 5 nights (so -19.3units w/ juice to hit 1 unit).   You're low on the year would have been -8units in early April and you're Oct 1 figure would have been +90 units. 

    Supposing you couldn't stomach the 2K bet when your units are CNotes, and you restart after losing 3 times in a row.  You would still have been at 57 units on Oct 1.

    Caveat - I don't have the actual salami lines, I just totaled the runs scored vs the game totals by day.  I believe the actual salami lines are about 8% higher than the sum of the totals.  Even factoring in 8% bumps and restarting after 3 losses still gives you about 30units in Oct....Hmm, worth a try next year.

     
    schiman
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 2:30 PM ET #528

    Quote Originally Posted by McShady:


    Yea. I threw up a bit when I saw the Eagles as a play




    That's a great line!  Thanks for the details on the series plays.
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    Quote Originally Posted by McShady:


    Yea. I threw up a bit when I saw the Eagles as a play




    That's a great line!  Thanks for the details on the series plays.
     
    Moth61
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 2:34 PM ET #529

    Forgive my ignorance, but what is the grand salami. What are you actually betting?
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    Forgive my ignorance, but what is the grand salami. What are you actually betting?
     
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 2:40 PM ET #530

    Ive Chased the Grand Salami for 2 years and its annoying and slow profit. Rain cnx happen every now and them to mess up a win. Alot of books cap it at max $500 bet
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    Ive Chased the Grand Salami for 2 years and its annoying and slow profit. Rain cnx happen every now and them to mess up a win. Alot of books cap it at max $500 bet
     
    semperfi19
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 2:47 PM ET #531

    LOOKS LIKE CARDS +1/2 F5...CHICKEN DINNER!!!
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    LOOKS LIKE CARDS +1/2 F5...CHICKEN DINNER!!!
     
    Moth61
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 2:48 PM ET #532

    Total runs in all games played that day?
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    Total runs in all games played that day?
     
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 2:49 PM ET #533

    Quote Originally Posted by Moth61:

    Total runs in all games played that day?

    Yea. Most major sports post a GS
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moth61:

    Total runs in all games played that day?

    Yea. Most major sports post a GS
     
    ChipsNVouchers
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 2:49 PM ET #534

    McShady- what Prop are you considering today? I get a few, nowhere near the options you get, but always fun to play them.
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    McShady- what Prop are you considering today? I get a few, nowhere near the options you get, but always fun to play them.
     
    semperfi19
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 2:50 PM ET #535

    js4u

    I just like the way the Giants play for Zito. Zito is a vet that will not get flustered in this must win situation on the road.  No stats nor trends to back me here.  Just a gut feeling that Zito gets it done 

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    js4u

    I just like the way the Giants play for Zito. Zito is a vet that will not get flustered in this must win situation on the road.  No stats nor trends to back me here.  Just a gut feeling that Zito gets it done 

     
    schiman
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 2:51 PM ET #536

    Good to know McShady.  That's why number calcs can never match up to the real thing!
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    Good to know McShady.  That's why number calcs can never match up to the real thing!
     
    kinggeorge27
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 3:06 PM ET #537

    23 runners left on base so far in this Nats game. What the hockey sticks! Plate some people already!!


    Ugh.
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    23 runners left on base so far in this Nats game. What the hockey sticks! Plate some people already!!


    Ugh.
     
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 3:06 PM ET #538

    Giants/Reds Prop - Total Bases 
    Ludwick (-110) ov Belt
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    Giants/Reds Prop - Total Bases 
    Ludwick (-110) ov Belt
     
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 3:13 PM ET #539

    Quote Originally Posted by schiman:

    Good to know McShady.  That's why number calcs can never match up to the real thing!

    Sent ya a PM
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    Quote Originally Posted by schiman:

    Good to know McShady.  That's why number calcs can never match up to the real thing!

    Sent ya a PM
     
    Moth61
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 3:26 PM ET #540

    Giants/Reds Prop - Total Bases 

    Here we go again!

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    Giants/Reds Prop - Total Bases 

    Here we go again!

     
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 3:28 PM ET #541

    Its not sexy, but I like it
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    Its not sexy, but I like it
     
    Skeptrix
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 3:31 PM ET #542

    Quote Originally Posted by Zweb0026:

    Has anybody gotten the Sport Investor's picks today (www.thesportinvestor.com)?? My co-worker has won quite a bit of money using these guys, but he won't give me the picks. They seem to know what they are talking about, are winning a lot, and curious to see if anyone else has their picks??

    I don't, but why don't you get it yourself, newb 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zweb0026:

    Has anybody gotten the Sport Investor's picks today (www.thesportinvestor.com)?? My co-worker has won quite a bit of money using these guys, but he won't give me the picks. They seem to know what they are talking about, are winning a lot, and curious to see if anyone else has their picks??

    I don't, but why don't you get it yourself, newb 
     
    SAILORJERRY
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 3:44 PM ET #543

    Well, maybe the Cards will cover the over right here....

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    Well, maybe the Cards will cover the over right here....

     
    J420
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 3:48 PM ET #544

    belt is benched for todays game
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    belt is benched for todays game
     
    mjnorman59
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 3:49 PM ET #545

    Late to the party today but took:

    STL TT ov 3.5
    STL ML

    Score first trend in now 4-1 in AL and 5-1 away in the Div round (incl. ST/WAS today).  Last year was 8-1 AL and 6-4 NL for the Div round.

    Going to chase the first to score for today SF and BAL. Will wait on DET/OAK if necessary.

    Not a huge trend but Giants after an X inning win on the road this season are 1-3 SU (all losses by 1 run and F5 1-1-2) on the road but scored first all 4 games.

    Gonzalez away starts since July, BAL has scored first 5-1.  Opponents scored first 4 out of 7 Kuroda starts at home since July.
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    Late to the party today but took:

    STL TT ov 3.5
    STL ML

    Score first trend in now 4-1 in AL and 5-1 away in the Div round (incl. ST/WAS today).  Last year was 8-1 AL and 6-4 NL for the Div round.

    Going to chase the first to score for today SF and BAL. Will wait on DET/OAK if necessary.

    Not a huge trend but Giants after an X inning win on the road this season are 1-3 SU (all losses by 1 run and F5 1-1-2) on the road but scored first all 4 games.

    Gonzalez away starts since July, BAL has scored first 5-1.  Opponents scored first 4 out of 7 Kuroda starts at home since July.
     
    Moth61
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 3:58 PM ET #546

    Well, maybe the Cards will cover the over right here....

    not looking good...

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    Well, maybe the Cards will cover the over right here....

    not looking good...

     
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 4:12 PM ET #547

    Quote Originally Posted by McShady:

    Giants/Reds Prop - Total Bases 
    Ludwick (-110) ov Belt

    Bet CNX. Belt was pulled. Posey to 1st
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    Quote Originally Posted by McShady:

    Giants/Reds Prop - Total Bases 
    Ludwick (-110) ov Belt

    Bet CNX. Belt was pulled. Posey to 1st
     
    mjnorman59
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 4:12 PM ET #548

    Afternoon plays:

    SF ML
    SF Score first

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    Afternoon plays:

    SF ML
    SF Score first

     
    mjnorman59
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 4:16 PM ET #549

    Damn...that was quick.  SF score first  wohoo!

    As always...thx to all for the posts and insight on this thread.  Made my terrible first year seriously betting not as bad once I found this thread. 
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    Damn...that was quick.  SF score first  wohoo!

    As always...thx to all for the posts and insight on this thread.  Made my terrible first year seriously betting not as bad once I found this thread. 
     
     
    Moth61
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2012 - 4:32 PM ET #550

    Thanks MJ, I got it in just before game time.
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    Thanks MJ, I got it in just before game time.
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