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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    Bodio's MLB Wed 09/21

    «First Previous 1234 Next Last»
    playadan07
    Kings55dez
    coachpunt1
    KenoLounge
    bodio
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    Views: 21196
    Posts: 97
    «First Previous 1234 Next Last»
     
    playadan07
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:14 AM ET #26

    astros/reds at 8.5 now, still a good play?

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    astros/reds at 8.5 now, still a good play?

     
    Kings55dez
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:15 AM ET #27

    Where can we get the Reds starting L/U?
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    Where can we get the Reds starting L/U?
     
    coachpunt1
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:17 AM ET #28

    Bodio, are you still liking the cubs?? I think with the wind blowing out and some of the power from their lineup gone, the brewers might be the right side here..
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    Bodio, are you still liking the cubs?? I think with the wind blowing out and some of the power from their lineup gone, the brewers might be the right side here..
     
    Kings55dez
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:18 AM ET #29

    I think the play is still Cubs as the Reds lineup isn't much better:

    1. Corey Hart (R) RF
    2. Nyjer Morgan (L) CF
    3. Ryan Braun (R) LF
    4. Prince Fielder (L) 1B
    5. Rickie Weeks (R) 2B
    6. Jerry Hairston (R) 3B
    7. Yuniesky Betancourt (R) SS
    8. George Kottaras (L) C
    9. Randy Wolf (L) P

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    I think the play is still Cubs as the Reds lineup isn't much better:

    1. Corey Hart (R) RF
    2. Nyjer Morgan (L) CF
    3. Ryan Braun (R) LF
    4. Prince Fielder (L) 1B
    5. Rickie Weeks (R) 2B
    6. Jerry Hairston (R) 3B
    7. Yuniesky Betancourt (R) SS
    8. George Kottaras (L) C
    9. Randy Wolf (L) P

     
    KenoLounge
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:18 AM ET #30

    Looking forward to the morning games. Thank you Bodio!
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    Looking forward to the morning games. Thank you Bodio!
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:18 AM ET #31

    Tampa Bay Rays 85-68 (56%) @ New York Yankees 93-60 (61%)

    J. Hellickson, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a FIP of 4.28 (#137 in MLB), xFIP of 4.61 (#195 in MLB), and tERA of 4.47 (#129 in MLB), with a BABIP of .228, LOB% of 82%, and E-F of -1.36. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.79, with a WHIP of 1.14, and opponent BA of .211. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 32%, FB%: 47% for a 0.67 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

    C. Sabathia, starting for New York Yankees, has a FIP of 2.78 (#9 in MLB), xFIP of 2.98 (#8 in MLB), and tERA of 3.62 (#41 in MLB), with a BABIP of .32, LOB% of 76%, and E-F of 0.24. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.8, with a WHIP of 1.23, and opponent BA of .251. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 31% for a 1.47 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

    Tampa Bay Rays have the #26 bullpen, #13 offense, and are rated #3 in fielding. They have a road record of 43-35 (55%), ranked #4 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

    New York Yankees have the #3 bullpen, #1 offense, and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a home record of 48-27 (64%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.



    Odds: TBR +173 (37%) NYY -185 (65%) O/U = 8.5

    Lean: Yankees
    =======================================

    Tampa Bay Rays 85-68 (56%) @ New York Yankees 93-60 (61%)

    J. Shields, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a FIP of 3.35 (#39 in MLB), xFIP of 3.19 (#16 in MLB), and tERA of 3.5 (#34 in MLB), with a BABIP of .261, LOB% of 80%, and E-F of -0.58. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.57, with a WHIP of 1.04, and opponent BA of .216. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 36% for a 1.26 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.

    #N/A

    Tampa Bay Rays have the #26 bullpen, #13 offense, and are rated #3 in fielding. They have a road record of 43-35 (55%), ranked #4 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

    New York Yankees have the #3 bullpen, #1 offense, and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a home record of 48-27 (64%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.


    Odds: TBR -135 (57%) NYY +127 (44%) O/U =

    Lean: Rays
    =======================================
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    Tampa Bay Rays 85-68 (56%) @ New York Yankees 93-60 (61%)

    J. Hellickson, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a FIP of 4.28 (#137 in MLB), xFIP of 4.61 (#195 in MLB), and tERA of 4.47 (#129 in MLB), with a BABIP of .228, LOB% of 82%, and E-F of -1.36. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.79, with a WHIP of 1.14, and opponent BA of .211. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 32%, FB%: 47% for a 0.67 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

    C. Sabathia, starting for New York Yankees, has a FIP of 2.78 (#9 in MLB), xFIP of 2.98 (#8 in MLB), and tERA of 3.62 (#41 in MLB), with a BABIP of .32, LOB% of 76%, and E-F of 0.24. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.8, with a WHIP of 1.23, and opponent BA of .251. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 31% for a 1.47 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

    Tampa Bay Rays have the #26 bullpen, #13 offense, and are rated #3 in fielding. They have a road record of 43-35 (55%), ranked #4 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

    New York Yankees have the #3 bullpen, #1 offense, and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a home record of 48-27 (64%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.



    Odds: TBR +173 (37%) NYY -185 (65%) O/U = 8.5

    Lean: Yankees
    =======================================

    Tampa Bay Rays 85-68 (56%) @ New York Yankees 93-60 (61%)

    J. Shields, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a FIP of 3.35 (#39 in MLB), xFIP of 3.19 (#16 in MLB), and tERA of 3.5 (#34 in MLB), with a BABIP of .261, LOB% of 80%, and E-F of -0.58. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.57, with a WHIP of 1.04, and opponent BA of .216. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 36% for a 1.26 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.

    #N/A

    Tampa Bay Rays have the #26 bullpen, #13 offense, and are rated #3 in fielding. They have a road record of 43-35 (55%), ranked #4 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

    New York Yankees have the #3 bullpen, #1 offense, and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a home record of 48-27 (64%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.


    Odds: TBR -135 (57%) NYY +127 (44%) O/U =

    Lean: Rays
    =======================================
     
    HotRoute
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:19 AM ET #32

    gl Bodio
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    gl Bodio
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:19 AM ET #33

    Quote Originally Posted by Swoop:

    Is this the lineup you were expecting? 

    1. Starlin Castro (R) SS
    2. DJ LeMahieu (R) 3B
    3. Reed Johnson (R) RF
    4. Jeff Baker (R) 2B
    5. Geovany Soto (R) C
    6. Marlon Byrd (R) CF
    7. Alfonso Soriano (R) LF
    8. Bryan LaHair (L) 1B
    9. Matt Garza (R) P

    Almost all righties, but missing a few key bats.  




    I was expecting Ramirez in there but he has an injury.  Besides that, it's a strong 'righty' lineup and Yes, I'm still on the Cubs
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swoop:

    Is this the lineup you were expecting? 

    1. Starlin Castro (R) SS
    2. DJ LeMahieu (R) 3B
    3. Reed Johnson (R) RF
    4. Jeff Baker (R) 2B
    5. Geovany Soto (R) C
    6. Marlon Byrd (R) CF
    7. Alfonso Soriano (R) LF
    8. Bryan LaHair (L) 1B
    9. Matt Garza (R) P

    Almost all righties, but missing a few key bats.  




    I was expecting Ramirez in there but he has an injury.  Besides that, it's a strong 'righty' lineup and Yes, I'm still on the Cubs
     
    Kings55dez
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:20 AM ET #34

    Good luck Bodio, in Garza we trust!
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    Good luck Bodio, in Garza we trust!
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:22 AM ET #35

    Quote Originally Posted by playadan07:

    astros/reds at 8.5 now, still a good play?


    Not as good as at 8.  I have this one at 9.8 total runs.
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    Quote Originally Posted by playadan07:

    astros/reds at 8.5 now, still a good play?


    Not as good as at 8.  I have this one at 9.8 total runs.
     
    Kings55dez
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:22 AM ET #36

    Quote Originally Posted by Kings55dez:

    I think the play is still Cubs as the Reds lineup isn't much better:

    1. Corey Hart (R) RF
    2. Nyjer Morgan (L) CF
    3. Ryan Braun (R) LF
    4. Prince Fielder (L) 1B
    5. Rickie Weeks (R) 2B
    6. Jerry Hairston (R) 3B
    7. Yuniesky Betancourt (R) SS
    8. George Kottaras (L) C
    9. Randy Wolf (L) P

    Brewers that is not Reds ugh to much researching today!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kings55dez:

    I think the play is still Cubs as the Reds lineup isn't much better:

    1. Corey Hart (R) RF
    2. Nyjer Morgan (L) CF
    3. Ryan Braun (R) LF
    4. Prince Fielder (L) 1B
    5. Rickie Weeks (R) 2B
    6. Jerry Hairston (R) 3B
    7. Yuniesky Betancourt (R) SS
    8. George Kottaras (L) C
    9. Randy Wolf (L) P

    Brewers that is not Reds ugh to much researching today!
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:23 AM ET #37

    Waiting to see the Yankee lineup.  Rays could be a play in the morning game.  They put out a strong 'lefty' lineup which I like...
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    Waiting to see the Yankee lineup.  Rays could be a play in the morning game.  They put out a strong 'lefty' lineup which I like...
     
    Kings55dez
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:25 AM ET #38

    Looks like CC is out Bodio...? Starter is (H. Noesi - R)

    Heres your lineups:

    1. Desmond Jennings (R) LF
    2. B.J. Upton (R) CF
    3. Evan Longoria (R) 3B
    4. Matt Joyce (L) RF
    5. Johnny Damon (L) DH
    6. Casey Kotchman (L) 1B
    7. Jose Lobaton (S) C
    8. Elliot Johnson (S) 2B
    9. Reid Brignac (L) SS
    1. Brett Gardner (L) CF
    2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
    3. Robinson Cano (L) DH
    4. Alex Rodriguez (R) 3B
    5. Nick Swisher (S) RF
    6. Jorge Posada (S) 1B
    7. Andruw Jones (R) LF
    8. Eduardo Nunez (R) 2B
    9. Austin Romine (R) C

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    Looks like CC is out Bodio...? Starter is (H. Noesi - R)

    Heres your lineups:

    1. Desmond Jennings (R) LF
    2. B.J. Upton (R) CF
    3. Evan Longoria (R) 3B
    4. Matt Joyce (L) RF
    5. Johnny Damon (L) DH
    6. Casey Kotchman (L) 1B
    7. Jose Lobaton (S) C
    8. Elliot Johnson (S) 2B
    9. Reid Brignac (L) SS
    1. Brett Gardner (L) CF
    2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
    3. Robinson Cano (L) DH
    4. Alex Rodriguez (R) 3B
    5. Nick Swisher (S) RF
    6. Jorge Posada (S) 1B
    7. Andruw Jones (R) LF
    8. Eduardo Nunez (R) 2B
    9. Austin Romine (R) C

     
    jasonmarce
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:26 AM ET #39

    Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

    Waiting to see the Yankee lineup.  Rays could be a play in the morning game.  They put out a strong 'lefty' lineup which I like...

    Gardner 8, Jeter 6, Cano DH, Rodriguez 5, Swisher 9, Posada 3, Jones 7, Nunez 4, Romine 2, Noesi 1


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    Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

    Waiting to see the Yankee lineup.  Rays could be a play in the morning game.  They put out a strong 'lefty' lineup which I like...

    Gardner 8, Jeter 6, Cano DH, Rodriguez 5, Swisher 9, Posada 3, Jones 7, Nunez 4, Romine 2, Noesi 1


     
    coachpunt1
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:27 AM ET #40

    1. Brett Gardner (L) CF
    2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
    3. Robinson Cano (L) DH
    4. Alex Rodriguez (R) 3B
    5. Nick Swisher (S) RF
    6. Jorge Posada (S) 1B
    7. Andruw Jones (R) LF
    8. Eduardo Nunez (R) 2B
    9. Austin Romine (R) C
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    1. Brett Gardner (L) CF
    2. Derek Jeter (R) SS
    3. Robinson Cano (L) DH
    4. Alex Rodriguez (R) 3B
    5. Nick Swisher (S) RF
    6. Jorge Posada (S) 1B
    7. Andruw Jones (R) LF
    8. Eduardo Nunez (R) 2B
    9. Austin Romine (R) C
     
    minion0812
    minion0812
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:27 AM ET #41

    Fuck man totally thought the brewers would rest some players!! WTF is this? Completely opposite of you thought. I totally agreed with you and am shocked to see these lineups. Really should have waited it out!
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    Fuck man totally thought the brewers would rest some players!! WTF is this? Completely opposite of you thought. I totally agreed with you and am shocked to see these lineups. Really should have waited it out!
     
    jellsbury
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:28 AM ET #42

    Bodio, love the plays today.  Any chance you'll be doing any playoff futures?
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    Bodio, love the plays today.  Any chance you'll be doing any playoff futures?
     
    minion0812
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:33 AM ET #43

    I really hope the cubs get up for their last home game of the year! I like that angle!
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    I really hope the cubs get up for their last home game of the year! I like that angle!
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:39 AM ET #44

    Quote Originally Posted by jellsbury:

    Bodio, love the plays today.  Any chance you'll be doing any playoff futures?


    only if I see some 'value' and a potential to win..I'll be doing a Playoff preview most likely.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jellsbury:

    Bodio, love the plays today.  Any chance you'll be doing any playoff futures?


    only if I see some 'value' and a potential to win..I'll be doing a Playoff preview most likely.
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:39 AM ET #45

    #3: Tampa Bay Rays -153

    Taking the Rays in this one. They have a strong 'lefty' lineup and Noesi has a mediocre xFIP of 4.22 against lefties this year. Yankees are sitting Tex, Granderson, and Martin with Posada, Nunez, and Romine in the lineup. Cano is a DH thus having error-prone Nunez at 2nd is another advantage here. I expect Rays to win the first game of this double-header.
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    #3: Tampa Bay Rays -153

    Taking the Rays in this one. They have a strong 'lefty' lineup and Noesi has a mediocre xFIP of 4.22 against lefties this year. Yankees are sitting Tex, Granderson, and Martin with Posada, Nunez, and Romine in the lineup. Cano is a DH thus having error-prone Nunez at 2nd is another advantage here. I expect Rays to win the first game of this double-header.
     
    vankiep_0007
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:45 AM ET #46

    gl as always Bodio
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    gl as always Bodio
     
    afgking4life
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:53 AM ET #47

    bodio,

    you are still going tampa bay with the yankees strong day game record? 
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    bodio,

    you are still going tampa bay with the yankees strong day game record? 
     
    Qncyk1
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 11:54 AM ET #48

    Quote Originally Posted by minion0812:

    Fuck man totally thought the brewers would rest some players!! WTF is this? Completely opposite of you thought. I totally agreed with you and am shocked to see these lineups. Really should have waited it out!

     

    why would they rest players? they still are fighting for home field against AZ.

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    Quote Originally Posted by minion0812:

    Fuck man totally thought the brewers would rest some players!! WTF is this? Completely opposite of you thought. I totally agreed with you and am shocked to see these lineups. Really should have waited it out!

     

    why would they rest players? they still are fighting for home field against AZ.

     
    DJM5226
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 12:07 PM ET #49

    Here are last years results for the teams last home games. 17-13 was the record for these team. Only 5 teams lost by more than 1 run in their last home game.  Maybe Cubs RL would be a safer play?  Make want you want of the finals scores as well.  Either way Good luck!  

    Orioles L 4-2***
    Reds W 3-2
    Red Sox W 8-4
    Marlins W 5-2
    White Sox W 6-5
    Mets L 1-2
    Royals L 2-3
    Braves W 8-7
    Twins L 1-2
    Astros W 4-0
    Texas L 2-6***
    Cardinals W 6-1
    Mariners L 4-3
    Giants W 3-0
    Dodgers W 3-1
    Padres L 0-1
    Angles W 2-1
    Rockies L 6-7
    Indians W 4-0
    Blue Jays W 8-4
    Rays L 0-2***
    Nationals L 1-7***
    Tigers W 5-1
    Pirates W 9-3
    Phillies L 3-7***
    Brewers W 7-1
    Cubs L 7-8
    A's L 9-16***
    Yankees W 4-3
    Diamondback W 5-4
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    Here are last years results for the teams last home games. 17-13 was the record for these team. Only 5 teams lost by more than 1 run in their last home game.  Maybe Cubs RL would be a safer play?  Make want you want of the finals scores as well.  Either way Good luck!  

    Orioles L 4-2***
    Reds W 3-2
    Red Sox W 8-4
    Marlins W 5-2
    White Sox W 6-5
    Mets L 1-2
    Royals L 2-3
    Braves W 8-7
    Twins L 1-2
    Astros W 4-0
    Texas L 2-6***
    Cardinals W 6-1
    Mariners L 4-3
    Giants W 3-0
    Dodgers W 3-1
    Padres L 0-1
    Angles W 2-1
    Rockies L 6-7
    Indians W 4-0
    Blue Jays W 8-4
    Rays L 0-2***
    Nationals L 1-7***
    Tigers W 5-1
    Pirates W 9-3
    Phillies L 3-7***
    Brewers W 7-1
    Cubs L 7-8
    A's L 9-16***
    Yankees W 4-3
    Diamondback W 5-4
     
     
    KenoLounge
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2011 - 12:10 PM ET #50

    Thanks djm
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    Thanks djm
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