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Bodio's MLB Wed 09/07

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Posted: #26
Will be waiting for your plays! 
 
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Thanks BRO - -we still love you BODIO !!!!!
 
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BoL today Bodio.  going to go read your NFL tread now!!
 
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Bodio...you must not have kids to do all this...so enjoy...and thanks...we benefit from your efforts.

EVIL E

 
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Posted: #32
Bodio,

From what I remember, this is continuing your MLB record breaking season. BOL

Respect Bodio
 
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Hey BODS I just read your NFL writeup and it was a great read. I think I may cut back on the DEN reg season Wins O 5.5 -160 to just a unit or two and put the other half on the Steelers.

Also I was wondering if you had any thoughts/leans/insight on tomorrows opener ?? Looking at the game I like what N.O did in the offseason getting Sproles which should help Brees and I like that Finely and Grant are back for GB but the public always seems to slurp the overs and the faves.

As much as I want to pull the trigger on this going over the total I keep hearing that little voice in my head saying "take the under and the dog. Every square in the land will be remembering GB hoisting the Lombardi last year. And they'll also take the O because thats what they do."

And I am guilty of it too over the years. Who wants to wait all week or in this case all summer for this kickoff only to spend the entire game looking at the clock wishing it would move faster ?? lolol

I think you said you may wait a bit before playing any games while gaining info for your model but I was just curious if you knew of or remember any trends as far as faves and totals in the opening game/week and more specifically in stand alone games which seem to get more public action...thanx


 
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Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Hey BODS I just read your NFL writeup and it was a great read. I think I may cut back on the DEN reg season Wins O 5.5 -160 to just a unit or two and put the other half on the Steelers.

Also I was wondering if you had any thoughts/leans/insight on tomorrows opener ?? Looking at the game I like what N.O did in the offseason getting Sproles which should help Brees and I like that Finely and Grant are back for GB but the public always seems to slurp the overs and the faves.

As much as I want to pull the trigger on this going over the total I keep hearing that little voice in my head saying "take the under and the dog. Every square in the land will be remembering GB hoisting the Lombardi last year. And they'll also take the O because thats what they do."

And I am guilty of it too over the years. Who wants to wait all week or in this case all summer for this kickoff only to spend the entire game looking at the clock wishing it would move faster ?? lolol

I think you said you may wait a bit before playing any games while gaining info for your model but I was just curious if you knew of or remember any trends as far as faves and totals in the opening game/week and more specifically in stand alone games which seem to get more public action...thanx




I agree with you.  The UNDER is the 'sharp' bet here.  Most of the public sees these 2 teams and assumed all offense.  Well, both are capable of playing very solid D as well!  At 47.5 the total is over the 'critical' # of 47.  UNDER is a decent wager.  I'm passing on this game though so good luck!
 
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Posted: #36
2011 MLB Record:
177 - 140 @ 56% for +19.11 Units




Wed 09/07

#1: New York Mets -116

Brad Hand is a very 'marginal' pitcher with a K/B ratio below 1 and some of the worst advanced stats I've seen out of anyone. In addition, he already faced the Mets once so the 'unfamiliarity' factor is gone. Further yet his xFIP against righties is a horrendous 6.0 with a 0.92 K/BB ratio and a 2.09 HR/9 rate. Here is Mets' lineup today:

1. Jose Reyes (S) SS
2. Ruben Tejada (R) 2B
3. Lucas Duda (L) RF
4. David Wright (R) 3B
5. Angel Pagan (S) CF
6. Jason Bay (R) LF
7. Nick Evans (R) 1B
8. Mike Nickeas (R) C
9. R.A. Dickey (R) P

I think it's fair to say that Mets' manager is paying attention as he only has one lefty in the lineup.

Opposite Hand is Dickey who has held Florida to 12 hits and 0 ER's in his 2 starts against them this year. Dickey has had 8 straight quality starts allowing 3 ER's or less and working 6+ innings in each. I expect him to be solid today, especially with Stanton being out of the lineup for the Fish.

Mets are solid on the road with a 39-35 record while Florida is atrocious at home with a 28-43 mark. Worse yet, this team is 5-17 (23%) as a home dog in the +100 to +125 range this season and 16-44 (27%) longer term. This one is a no-brainer.

Good luck!

FYI: still capping games so more plays are likely.

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580




"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
 
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Posted: #37

M-E-T-S  is a beautiful  BET, BET, BET! 


I'm on 'em too  -  RL & TT OVER 4.5, and also will stab the ML as well.   

 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:



I agree with you.  The UNDER is the 'sharp' bet here.  Most of the public sees these 2 teams and assumed all offense.  Well, both are capable of playing very solid D as well!  At 47.5 the total is over the 'critical' # of 47.  UNDER is a decent wager.  I'm passing on this game though so good luck!
Thanx for the response I think I'll trust my gut and go with the under even though the action person in me is a lil bummed lol

I was looking over the game and saw how high scoring the recent H2H meetings were (like the books somehow missed it ) and started trying to convince myself the O was the play. Also after capping CFL all summer I get used to seeing some crazy high totals closing in on the 60's so when I see 47.5 my first thought is to look into the over but 47.5 is pretty damn high for the NFL whereas a CFL total at 47.5 is like seeing 33.5 for the NFL

As for the side I think GB being at home and their cohesion will be an asset that N.O may not have as much of with new players coming in and some injury and suspension issues.

Not going big either way but I will be playing a little so thanx for the time and response. I may just do a small action parlay of GB ML to the U which pays nicely,doesn't risk a ton and also gives a little more room for GB to win and also stay under the total.

If I play GB-4.5 to the U N.O can only score 21 points max. As soon as they hit 22 it's impossible to win both. If I go ML to the UNDER N.O can get to 23 with 24 by GB covering the ML and staying under. Pretty unlikely it's that tight but these lines are usually pretty sharp so every edge helps.
 
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Posted: #39
Good luck bodio
 
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Posted: #40
BODIO, if you had to pick a lean on the total in the KC OAK 8.5 what would it be?
 
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Posted: #41
Best of Luck Bodio 
 
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Posted: #42
Body, Whats keeping your from making the Giants a play?
 
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Posted: #43
GD LK BODIO
LIKING METS AS WELL...
 
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Posted: #44
bodio what do you think about sox/twins game? Who would be your lean? And what do you have the Jays/sox game at on the under/over?
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by hutasadorn:

Hey bodio, what are your thoughts on the over here?

Mets at Marlins have gone 8-0 for the over this season.

With two average-type guys on the mound, I can see both of these teams scoring some runs today.




have this one at 8.8 total runs.  Good luck!
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Thanx for the response I think I'll trust my gut and go with the under even though the action person in me is a lil bummed lol

I was looking over the game and saw how high scoring the recent H2H meetings were (like the books somehow missed it ) and started trying to convince myself the O was the play. Also after capping CFL all summer I get used to seeing some crazy high totals closing in on the 60's so when I see 47.5 my first thought is to look into the over but 47.5 is pretty damn high for the NFL whereas a CFL total at 47.5 is like seeing 33.5 for the NFL

As for the side I think GB being at home and their cohesion will be an asset that N.O may not have as much of with new players coming in and some injury and suspension issues.

Not going big either way but I will be playing a little so thanx for the time and response. I may just do a small action parlay of GB ML to the U which pays nicely,doesn't risk a ton and also gives a little more room for GB to win and also stay under the total.

If I play GB-4.5 to the U N.O can only score 21 points max. As soon as they hit 22 it's impossible to win both. If I go ML to the UNDER N.O can get to 23 with 24 by GB covering the ML and staying under. Pretty unlikely it's that tight but these lines are usually pretty sharp so every edge helps.


Tease GB -4 with PIT +3 this weekend...that's a very solid 'action' wager IMO
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by StevieY:

BODIO, if you had to pick a lean on the total in the KC OAK 8.5 what would it be?


pass...have that one at 8.4 total runs. The total is right on!
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by Makavelli:

Body, Whats keeping your from making the Giants a play?


The only thing that's keeping me from this play is not having capped the game fully yet  :)  
Looking at it right now
 
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Quote Originally Posted by KMB04321:

bodio what do you think about sox/twins game? Who would be your lean? And what do you have the Jays/sox game at on the under/over?


I believe I listed Sox as a 'strong lean'.  The O/U in the jays game is at 9.6 according to my model
 
 
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GL Bodio,,,,,,,,,,,
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