Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
101 - 88 @ 53% for +2.38 Units
Wed, 06/29
#1: Washington Nationals +126
Both Zimmerman and Haren have solid advanced stats this year. A couple of factors favor Zimm in this one. First of all, he has never faced this Angels lineup before. For a guy that has gone 7 consecutive starts giving up 2 ER's or less that's a decent advantage. The 32K to 8 BB (4/1 K/BB) in those starts is pretty impressive. Haren hasn't been as 'sharp' lately, allowing 42 hits in his last 29 innings pitched (5 games) with 18 ER's and 3 HR's. He's faced a number of hitters in this Nats lineup thus the 'unfamiliarity' factor won't be in play here. Nats also have a BP advantage in this one. Washington is only 18-27 on the road this year but the Angels haven't been that great at home either, with a 17-20 record. I like the "Nasty Nats" to avoid a sweep in this one and split their 6-game roadie with a win tonight.
#2: OVER 9 CHW/COL -120
A couple of basic factors first: #1 hitters park; wind blowing 'out' slightly; two decent, top 15 offenses. Second of all, I want to point out that the Rockies are top 10 against lefties this year and Buehrle is a 'south-paw'. Speaking of Buehrle, he hasn't given up more than 3 ER's in his last 10 starts. Those numbers are a bit deceiving though. Let's take a look at his last 5 starts. HIs last 3 were against CHC, MIN, and OAK (2 below average and one average lineups). Buehrle allowed 15 hits and 6 ER's in 17 innings pitched. Not bad. In his 2 starts prior to that, against DET and TOR (both above-average offenses), he allowed 19 hits and 6 ER's in 13 innings pitched. He also issued 3 walks in those starts. That's 22 combined base-runners in 13 innings, but only 6 ER's. I don't see him being so lucky against another above-average offense today, playing in a #1 hitters park. In terms of Ubaldo, we all know the story: fantastic on the road but horrible at home. In 42 home-innings this year he has given up 61 hits, all 7 of his HR's allowed, and 32 ER's. Opponents are batting .337 off him in Coors Field this year. Jimenez is coming off 119 pitches in his previous start, his season high. His average is 100 P/GS this year, so he threw almost 20% more than his season average in his last outing. White Sox are significantly better against righties, and since Ubaldo is a righty, even Adam Dunn has a chance to be somewhat productive today (albeit a very small chance). My model has this one at 11.1 total runs, and I like this one to sail OVER the posted total.
Good luck!
101 - 88 @ 53% for +2.38 Units
Wed, 06/29
#1: Washington Nationals +126
Both Zimmerman and Haren have solid advanced stats this year. A couple of factors favor Zimm in this one. First of all, he has never faced this Angels lineup before. For a guy that has gone 7 consecutive starts giving up 2 ER's or less that's a decent advantage. The 32K to 8 BB (4/1 K/BB) in those starts is pretty impressive. Haren hasn't been as 'sharp' lately, allowing 42 hits in his last 29 innings pitched (5 games) with 18 ER's and 3 HR's. He's faced a number of hitters in this Nats lineup thus the 'unfamiliarity' factor won't be in play here. Nats also have a BP advantage in this one. Washington is only 18-27 on the road this year but the Angels haven't been that great at home either, with a 17-20 record. I like the "Nasty Nats" to avoid a sweep in this one and split their 6-game roadie with a win tonight.
#2: OVER 9 CHW/COL -120
A couple of basic factors first: #1 hitters park; wind blowing 'out' slightly; two decent, top 15 offenses. Second of all, I want to point out that the Rockies are top 10 against lefties this year and Buehrle is a 'south-paw'. Speaking of Buehrle, he hasn't given up more than 3 ER's in his last 10 starts. Those numbers are a bit deceiving though. Let's take a look at his last 5 starts. HIs last 3 were against CHC, MIN, and OAK (2 below average and one average lineups). Buehrle allowed 15 hits and 6 ER's in 17 innings pitched. Not bad. In his 2 starts prior to that, against DET and TOR (both above-average offenses), he allowed 19 hits and 6 ER's in 13 innings pitched. He also issued 3 walks in those starts. That's 22 combined base-runners in 13 innings, but only 6 ER's. I don't see him being so lucky against another above-average offense today, playing in a #1 hitters park. In terms of Ubaldo, we all know the story: fantastic on the road but horrible at home. In 42 home-innings this year he has given up 61 hits, all 7 of his HR's allowed, and 32 ER's. Opponents are batting .337 off him in Coors Field this year. Jimenez is coming off 119 pitches in his previous start, his season high. His average is 100 P/GS this year, so he threw almost 20% more than his season average in his last outing. White Sox are significantly better against righties, and since Ubaldo is a righty, even Adam Dunn has a chance to be somewhat productive today (albeit a very small chance). My model has this one at 11.1 total runs, and I like this one to sail OVER the posted total.
Good luck!
_________________
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-----------------------------------
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0
czar bodio, we believe in you..... are u accusing us of being fair weather fans??
GL
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