hey Bodio, been following you for the past six months. thanks for all your hard work. I had a couple questions. what are your thoughts on MLB -1 lines vs. moneylines? you save on the juice but I don't know how many games actually finish a one run margin. I typically use the -1 lines when the ml is greater than -150.
my second question is do you send out your plays through email as sometimes i miss out on a win from one of your plays when I'm busy or when the forums are cluttered up and I can't find your thread.
the last thing I wanted to ask was whether or not you are going to be setting up a service in the future or do you plan on continuing to post your plays on this forum free of charge?
what are your thoughts on Tampa as a side play? seems like they have a lot riding on this game
thanks for your hard work and best of luck on your plays
PM me. The moderators instructed me not to discuss emails in the forums.
28% of all the games finish as 1-run games in MLB..
The fact that Tampa has a lot riding on this game shouldn't be your reason to back them. Cards, Braves, and Red Sox had a lot riding on their games yesterday. Look how that turned out. I'd wait for the lineups but if Yankees have a strong lineup out there, I'd pass. The Bombers have already seen this Hellickson kid a couple of times this season, and his peripherals are very very very mediocre: 1.73 K/BB and4.63 xFIP (#198 in the league). He has a 35% GB-rate and .222 BABIP with a very high 82% strand-rate -- he's due for a regression. I know it seems that he's been 'light out' lately but he's allowed 15 walks to only 14 K's in his last 5 starts. A couple of walks against the Bombers, it it could be 'lights-out' for Hellickson. I know he held them to only 2 hits in his last start, but he issued 4 walks and gave up a homer with Rays losing the game. In the start prior to that he gave up 8 hits and 4 ER's to them in 4 innings of work. Even if Yankees aren't at full strength for this one, I still wouldn't be laying this much juice with Hellickson on the mound. Tampa is way too juiced up! Finally Hellickson's xFIP of 5.68 against lefties is THE WORST in the majors this year out of all starting pitchers with at least 50 innings of work. New York has Granderson, Cano, Tex, Swisher, Gardner, Chavez, Posada, and Dickerson who all can hit lefty! Be careful!
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Quote Originally Posted by timbaland99:
hey Bodio, been following you for the past six months. thanks for all your hard work. I had a couple questions. what are your thoughts on MLB -1 lines vs. moneylines? you save on the juice but I don't know how many games actually finish a one run margin. I typically use the -1 lines when the ml is greater than -150.
my second question is do you send out your plays through email as sometimes i miss out on a win from one of your plays when I'm busy or when the forums are cluttered up and I can't find your thread.
the last thing I wanted to ask was whether or not you are going to be setting up a service in the future or do you plan on continuing to post your plays on this forum free of charge?
what are your thoughts on Tampa as a side play? seems like they have a lot riding on this game
thanks for your hard work and best of luck on your plays
PM me. The moderators instructed me not to discuss emails in the forums.
28% of all the games finish as 1-run games in MLB..
The fact that Tampa has a lot riding on this game shouldn't be your reason to back them. Cards, Braves, and Red Sox had a lot riding on their games yesterday. Look how that turned out. I'd wait for the lineups but if Yankees have a strong lineup out there, I'd pass. The Bombers have already seen this Hellickson kid a couple of times this season, and his peripherals are very very very mediocre: 1.73 K/BB and4.63 xFIP (#198 in the league). He has a 35% GB-rate and .222 BABIP with a very high 82% strand-rate -- he's due for a regression. I know it seems that he's been 'light out' lately but he's allowed 15 walks to only 14 K's in his last 5 starts. A couple of walks against the Bombers, it it could be 'lights-out' for Hellickson. I know he held them to only 2 hits in his last start, but he issued 4 walks and gave up a homer with Rays losing the game. In the start prior to that he gave up 8 hits and 4 ER's to them in 4 innings of work. Even if Yankees aren't at full strength for this one, I still wouldn't be laying this much juice with Hellickson on the mound. Tampa is way too juiced up! Finally Hellickson's xFIP of 5.68 against lefties is THE WORST in the majors this year out of all starting pitchers with at least 50 innings of work. New York has Granderson, Cano, Tex, Swisher, Gardner, Chavez, Posada, and Dickerson who all can hit lefty! Be careful!
I thought -129 at -1 was a decent line for TB backers.
Colon has been horrible, and is regressing month by month. Hellickson has actually been pitching stronger as the season has progressed. Add the situation on top of this and the yanks playing their 4th game in 3 days, seems to point to a strong TB play.
I just don't see NY using any of their quality bullpen pitchers with the playoffs only days away. Colon should be lit up tonight.
I also love the TB TT OVER 4 1/2.
Much respect to you BOD, you're a solid capper, but this particular game is my strongest play of the season up to this point.
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I thought -129 at -1 was a decent line for TB backers.
Colon has been horrible, and is regressing month by month. Hellickson has actually been pitching stronger as the season has progressed. Add the situation on top of this and the yanks playing their 4th game in 3 days, seems to point to a strong TB play.
I just don't see NY using any of their quality bullpen pitchers with the playoffs only days away. Colon should be lit up tonight.
I also love the TB TT OVER 4 1/2.
Much respect to you BOD, you're a solid capper, but this particular game is my strongest play of the season up to this point.
With regards to this being Bodio's final card of the regular season.....I highly doubt it as I'm sure he will find his 200th winner of the season on that card somewhere. I mean how many times have you seen him sit out a Wednesday this year?
I'm most impressed with his NFL capping this past week. Not only was it a winning weekend but he predicted the EXACT score of the Bears/Packers game. Who does that? Couldn't let that one go unrecognized.
Looking forward to MLB playoffs. Keep it rollin' man, an impressive body of work for sure.
I think he was only asking about today..Today's card is final.
I'm sure I'll find a play or 2 tomorrow. heck, we might even have an extra game or 2 to decide who goes to the playoffs!
This is a very exciting time in MLB...Too bad a lot of people gave up paying attention and are focused on football only at this stage. But then again, so have the bookies as odds are becoming very 'soft' again.
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Quote Originally Posted by jtshoe8:
With regards to this being Bodio's final card of the regular season.....I highly doubt it as I'm sure he will find his 200th winner of the season on that card somewhere. I mean how many times have you seen him sit out a Wednesday this year?
I'm most impressed with his NFL capping this past week. Not only was it a winning weekend but he predicted the EXACT score of the Bears/Packers game. Who does that? Couldn't let that one go unrecognized.
Looking forward to MLB playoffs. Keep it rollin' man, an impressive body of work for sure.
I think he was only asking about today..Today's card is final.
I'm sure I'll find a play or 2 tomorrow. heck, we might even have an extra game or 2 to decide who goes to the playoffs!
This is a very exciting time in MLB...Too bad a lot of people gave up paying attention and are focused on football only at this stage. But then again, so have the bookies as odds are becoming very 'soft' again.
I thought -129 at -1 was a decent line for TB backers.
Colon has been horrible, and is regressing month by month. Hellickson has actually been pitching stronger as the season has progressed. Add the situation on top of this and the yanks playing their 4th game in 3 days, seems to point to a strong TB play.
I just don't see NY using any of their quality bullpen pitchers with the playoffs only days away. Colon should be lit up tonight.
I also love the TB TT OVER 4 1/2.
Much respect to you BOD, you're a solid capper, but this particular game is my strongest play of the season up to this point.
Here's Hellickson month-by-month breakdown:
Apr: 4.60 xFIP / 1.92 K/BB
May: 4.55 xFIP / 1.53 K/BB
Jun: 4.65 xFIP / 1.82 K/BB
Jul: 5.04 xFIP / 1.86 K/BB
Aug: 4.14 xFIP / 2.45 K/BB (his strongest month)
Sept: 4.94 xFIP / 0.91 K/BB (his weakest month)
I wouldn't say he's getting stronger. He's been very mediocre this year and due to a very low BABIP of .222 and a very unusual strand rate of 82%, his ERA looks much better than it should. His ERA is 2.90 while his FIP is 4.34 with a -1.4 E-F. He's due for a regression towards his FIP and it could very well start tonight against a potent Yankee lineup who will be seeing him for the 4th time already this year.
As for Colon his monthly xFIP and K/BB has been betwen 3.04 and 4.01. In september his xFIP is 3.61 actually and a high BABIP of .343 and a very low strand rate of 50% let to inflated ERA in this month. Colon's K/BB is 4.0 in September and to me he's not really 'slowing down' he's just getting a bit unlucky (it's baseball...things like these fluctuate and 'luck' is a factor in this game). He hasn't fared well against Tampa this year and that's a reason why I wouldn't back him even though there's tons of 'value' on the Yankees in this one.
I have this game at -110 Yankees (that's of course assuming their regular lineup is in and all of BP is available, etc), thus a pretty much a 50/50 matchup. Current odds have Tampa winning this one 63% of the time. Like I said, tons of 'value' on NY even with less than a full lineup and with a couple of their BP guys resting as well (remember, Yankees have one of the deepest and BEST bullpens in the league).
Finally, what does playing 4 games in 3 days have anything to do with here? This is baseball. These guys play 162 games in like 180 days. This is not a factor IMO.
Good luck with you play but from my perspective you're betting into a long-term losing scenario with this one.
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Quote Originally Posted by SkySky:
I thought -129 at -1 was a decent line for TB backers.
Colon has been horrible, and is regressing month by month. Hellickson has actually been pitching stronger as the season has progressed. Add the situation on top of this and the yanks playing their 4th game in 3 days, seems to point to a strong TB play.
I just don't see NY using any of their quality bullpen pitchers with the playoffs only days away. Colon should be lit up tonight.
I also love the TB TT OVER 4 1/2.
Much respect to you BOD, you're a solid capper, but this particular game is my strongest play of the season up to this point.
Here's Hellickson month-by-month breakdown:
Apr: 4.60 xFIP / 1.92 K/BB
May: 4.55 xFIP / 1.53 K/BB
Jun: 4.65 xFIP / 1.82 K/BB
Jul: 5.04 xFIP / 1.86 K/BB
Aug: 4.14 xFIP / 2.45 K/BB (his strongest month)
Sept: 4.94 xFIP / 0.91 K/BB (his weakest month)
I wouldn't say he's getting stronger. He's been very mediocre this year and due to a very low BABIP of .222 and a very unusual strand rate of 82%, his ERA looks much better than it should. His ERA is 2.90 while his FIP is 4.34 with a -1.4 E-F. He's due for a regression towards his FIP and it could very well start tonight against a potent Yankee lineup who will be seeing him for the 4th time already this year.
As for Colon his monthly xFIP and K/BB has been betwen 3.04 and 4.01. In september his xFIP is 3.61 actually and a high BABIP of .343 and a very low strand rate of 50% let to inflated ERA in this month. Colon's K/BB is 4.0 in September and to me he's not really 'slowing down' he's just getting a bit unlucky (it's baseball...things like these fluctuate and 'luck' is a factor in this game). He hasn't fared well against Tampa this year and that's a reason why I wouldn't back him even though there's tons of 'value' on the Yankees in this one.
I have this game at -110 Yankees (that's of course assuming their regular lineup is in and all of BP is available, etc), thus a pretty much a 50/50 matchup. Current odds have Tampa winning this one 63% of the time. Like I said, tons of 'value' on NY even with less than a full lineup and with a couple of their BP guys resting as well (remember, Yankees have one of the deepest and BEST bullpens in the league).
Finally, what does playing 4 games in 3 days have anything to do with here? This is baseball. These guys play 162 games in like 180 days. This is not a factor IMO.
Good luck with you play but from my perspective you're betting into a long-term losing scenario with this one.
I wouldn't say he's getting stronger. He's been very mediocre this year and due to a very low BABIP of .222 and a very unusual strand rate of 82%, his ERA looks much better than it should. His ERA is 2.90 while his FIP is 4.34 with a -1.4 E-F. He's due for a regression towards his FIP and it could very well start tonight against a potent Yankee lineup who will be seeing him for the 4th time already this year.
As for Colon his monthly xFIP and K/BB has been betwen 3.04 and 4.01. In september his xFIP is 3.61 actually and a high BABIP of .343 and a very low strand rate of 50% let to inflated ERA in this month. Colon's K/BB is 4.0 in September and to me he's not really 'slowing down' he's just getting a bit unlucky (it's baseball...things like these fluctuate and 'luck' is a factor in this game). He hasn't fared well against Tampa this year and that's a reason why I wouldn't back him even though there's tons of 'value' on the Yankees in this one.
I have this game at -110 Yankees (that's of course assuming their regular lineup is in and all of BP is available, etc), thus a pretty much a 50/50 matchup. Current odds have Tampa winning this one 63% of the time. Like I said, tons of 'value' on NY even with less than a full lineup and with a couple of their BP guys resting as well (remember, Yankees have one of the deepest and BEST bullpens in the league).
Finally, what does playing 4 games in 3 days have anything to do with here? This is baseball. These guys play 162 games in like 180 days. This is not a factor IMO.
Good luck with you play but from my perspective you're betting into a long-term losing scenario with this one.
The recent numbers for Colon do not show a strong pitcher.
He has given up 27 hits and 15 earned runs with an opposing .314 BA in his last 20 innings.
I understand the your "luck" factor BOD, but these numbers reflect a pitcher who is slowing down, imo.
One thing you are not factoring into this is the situation.
This is one of the best situational plays of the season.
TB with their whole season on the line, and the Yankees with absolutely
nothing to play for. Managerial decisions during the game in this
particular situation may also play a large role in the outcome.
Looks like we are on opposite sides of this one. GL.
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Here's Hellickson month-by-month breakdown:
Apr: 4.60 xFIP / 1.92 K/BB
May: 4.55 xFIP / 1.53 K/BB
Jun: 4.65 xFIP / 1.82 K/BB
Jul: 5.04 xFIP / 1.86 K/BB
Aug: 4.14 xFIP / 2.45 K/BB (his strongest month)
Sept: 4.94 xFIP / 0.91 K/BB (his weakest month)
I wouldn't say he's getting stronger. He's been very mediocre this year and due to a very low BABIP of .222 and a very unusual strand rate of 82%, his ERA looks much better than it should. His ERA is 2.90 while his FIP is 4.34 with a -1.4 E-F. He's due for a regression towards his FIP and it could very well start tonight against a potent Yankee lineup who will be seeing him for the 4th time already this year.
As for Colon his monthly xFIP and K/BB has been betwen 3.04 and 4.01. In september his xFIP is 3.61 actually and a high BABIP of .343 and a very low strand rate of 50% let to inflated ERA in this month. Colon's K/BB is 4.0 in September and to me he's not really 'slowing down' he's just getting a bit unlucky (it's baseball...things like these fluctuate and 'luck' is a factor in this game). He hasn't fared well against Tampa this year and that's a reason why I wouldn't back him even though there's tons of 'value' on the Yankees in this one.
I have this game at -110 Yankees (that's of course assuming their regular lineup is in and all of BP is available, etc), thus a pretty much a 50/50 matchup. Current odds have Tampa winning this one 63% of the time. Like I said, tons of 'value' on NY even with less than a full lineup and with a couple of their BP guys resting as well (remember, Yankees have one of the deepest and BEST bullpens in the league).
Finally, what does playing 4 games in 3 days have anything to do with here? This is baseball. These guys play 162 games in like 180 days. This is not a factor IMO.
Good luck with you play but from my perspective you're betting into a long-term losing scenario with this one.
The recent numbers for Colon do not show a strong pitcher.
He has given up 27 hits and 15 earned runs with an opposing .314 BA in his last 20 innings.
I understand the your "luck" factor BOD, but these numbers reflect a pitcher who is slowing down, imo.
One thing you are not factoring into this is the situation.
This is one of the best situational plays of the season.
TB with their whole season on the line, and the Yankees with absolutely
nothing to play for. Managerial decisions during the game in this
particular situation may also play a large role in the outcome.
Looks like we are on opposite sides of this one. GL.
Nice work yesterday BOD's I had a banger myself. And the guy whos soccer plays I've been tailing with great success has another today so for tailing/tracking purposes
Eng Champ(1)Derby-Barnsley O 2.5 +110
Not sure of his exact record since some plays are in Brazil League B and Japan League which are n.a for me but I've seen the records of trusted honest guys who've tailed what they can get their hands on and they're all around 70%.
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Nice work yesterday BOD's I had a banger myself. And the guy whos soccer plays I've been tailing with great success has another today so for tailing/tracking purposes
Eng Champ(1)Derby-Barnsley O 2.5 +110
Not sure of his exact record since some plays are in Brazil League B and Japan League which are n.a for me but I've seen the records of trusted honest guys who've tailed what they can get their hands on and they're all around 70%.
i disagree with you on the nyy being fatigued and it not being a factor. with them not having anything to play for, why would they run out hard on an infield hit or catchable fly ball to rink injury? why attempt a steal? why grind out an at-bat(nyy are best at this) to drive up pitch count? all these factors affect the score of a game.
i do agree with colon. he is going to give 110 percent as preserving the nyy bullpen right now is priority number one.
i cant see jeter, a-rod(alhtough montero is not necesarily a downgrade), grand or any of their signifigant bp pitching tonight.
why would you play these veterans? they've been here before.
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i disagree with you on the nyy being fatigued and it not being a factor. with them not having anything to play for, why would they run out hard on an infield hit or catchable fly ball to rink injury? why attempt a steal? why grind out an at-bat(nyy are best at this) to drive up pitch count? all these factors affect the score of a game.
i do agree with colon. he is going to give 110 percent as preserving the nyy bullpen right now is priority number one.
i cant see jeter, a-rod(alhtough montero is not necesarily a downgrade), grand or any of their signifigant bp pitching tonight.
why would you play these veterans? they've been here before.
Tue 09/27 #1: Toronto Blue Jays +121 White Sox have never seen Alvarez before and the kid has great stuff. Toronto is the 5th best hitting team against Buehrle, who's been struggling lately, and is on the down-slope of his career. I could say that I'm backing a better starter and a better offense in this one. But honestly, the fact that Ozzie won't be on the ChiSox sidelines for the first time in the last 8 years could be the greatest factor here. Baseball is a mental game, and it will be very 'different' for these White Sox players in their first game without their 'old' skipper.
====================================
Action Parlay: Giants ML / Barcelona ML (SPL) -130(combined odds)
Good luck!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
Not to knock the best baseball capper on the board, but I'm a little unclear as to how you generally don't take situational angles into effect, but yet are making this play with "the greatest factor" being the White Sox not having Ozzie...
BOL tonight
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
2011 MLB Record: 197 - 153 @56%for+25.08 Units
Tue 09/27 #1: Toronto Blue Jays +121 White Sox have never seen Alvarez before and the kid has great stuff. Toronto is the 5th best hitting team against Buehrle, who's been struggling lately, and is on the down-slope of his career. I could say that I'm backing a better starter and a better offense in this one. But honestly, the fact that Ozzie won't be on the ChiSox sidelines for the first time in the last 8 years could be the greatest factor here. Baseball is a mental game, and it will be very 'different' for these White Sox players in their first game without their 'old' skipper.
====================================
Action Parlay: Giants ML / Barcelona ML (SPL) -130(combined odds)
Good luck!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
Not to knock the best baseball capper on the board, but I'm a little unclear as to how you generally don't take situational angles into effect, but yet are making this play with "the greatest factor" being the White Sox not having Ozzie...
The recent numbers for Colon do not show a strong pitcher.
He has given up 27 hits and 15 earned runs with an opposing .314 BA in his last 20 innings.
I understand the your "luck" factor BOD, but these numbers reflect a pitcher who is slowing down, imo.
One thing you are not factoring into this is the situation.
This is one of the best situational plays of the season.
TB with their whole season on the line, and the Yankees with absolutely
nothing to play for. Managerial decisions during the game in this
particular situation may also play a large role in the outcome.
Looks like we are on opposite sides of this one. GL.
Well, how do you explain the fact that Atlanta, St Louis, and Boston lost yesterday? They were in the SAME situation as Tampa is in today playing against teams that 'have nothing to play for' like you said.
Be careful
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Quote Originally Posted by SkySky:
The recent numbers for Colon do not show a strong pitcher.
He has given up 27 hits and 15 earned runs with an opposing .314 BA in his last 20 innings.
I understand the your "luck" factor BOD, but these numbers reflect a pitcher who is slowing down, imo.
One thing you are not factoring into this is the situation.
This is one of the best situational plays of the season.
TB with their whole season on the line, and the Yankees with absolutely
nothing to play for. Managerial decisions during the game in this
particular situation may also play a large role in the outcome.
Looks like we are on opposite sides of this one. GL.
Well, how do you explain the fact that Atlanta, St Louis, and Boston lost yesterday? They were in the SAME situation as Tampa is in today playing against teams that 'have nothing to play for' like you said.
Well, how do you explain the fact that Atlanta, St Louis, and Boston lost yesterday? They were in the SAME situation as Tampa is in today playing against teams that 'have nothing to play for' like you said.
Be careful
Value and pitching match ups made the difference
-1 -129 is solid value for this situation, imo.
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Well, how do you explain the fact that Atlanta, St Louis, and Boston lost yesterday? They were in the SAME situation as Tampa is in today playing against teams that 'have nothing to play for' like you said.
i disagree with you on the nyy being fatigued and it not being a factor. with them not having anything to play for, why would they run out hard on an infield hit or catchable fly ball to rink injury? why attempt a steal? why grind out an at-bat(nyy are best at this) to drive up pitch count? all these factors affect the score of a game.
I'm sorry, but this is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read. I've already had a discussion with someone else about players giving their ALL on the field and you can't be more wrong here. I don't care who is playing a veteran or a rookie, when that guy is in the game he gives his all, especially on a team like the Yankees where hard work, hustle, and 100% effort is expected at all times.
You ask why someone would run out an infield hit, or dive for a ball, or work the count? Because that's the expectation of every professional, and even most amateur athletes -- to play at the highest level at all times. And it's not just the expectation of the fans, management, press, etc. -- it's the expectation of each individual player. They play hard all the time for themselves and their teammates first! You really think a guy like Derek Jeter would slack off in today's game just cause it's 'meaningless'? What kind of an example would it be for the guys on the field? These professional athletes didn't get to this point of their careers by slacking off in 'meaningless' games. They have pride, hard wort ethic, and a desire to WIN at all times! It might be a meaningless game in terms of the standings, but it's not 'meaningless' for the players on the field! They will play to win the game!
I will point out again, why didn't Baltimore, Philly, and Houston lay-down last night? The game was meaningless to them! Why did they play hard all game long and won?
I hope you watch today's game between NY and Tampa. I hope you watch Jeter and Co. give their best effort to win the game. Maybe you'll realize what an athlete's desire to win a game is all about.
Finally, a lot of handicappers say things like you just mentioned to make themselves feel all 'warm and fuzzy' inside when they're making a bet. If assuming that Yankees will play at 70% of their ability to justify your Tampa bet to yourself, then by all means go for it. I'm just curious to know how did Houston, Baltimore, and Philly give lackadaisical effort last night and still won their respective games against teams giving 100%?
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Quote Originally Posted by Qncyk1:
i disagree with you on the nyy being fatigued and it not being a factor. with them not having anything to play for, why would they run out hard on an infield hit or catchable fly ball to rink injury? why attempt a steal? why grind out an at-bat(nyy are best at this) to drive up pitch count? all these factors affect the score of a game.
I'm sorry, but this is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read. I've already had a discussion with someone else about players giving their ALL on the field and you can't be more wrong here. I don't care who is playing a veteran or a rookie, when that guy is in the game he gives his all, especially on a team like the Yankees where hard work, hustle, and 100% effort is expected at all times.
You ask why someone would run out an infield hit, or dive for a ball, or work the count? Because that's the expectation of every professional, and even most amateur athletes -- to play at the highest level at all times. And it's not just the expectation of the fans, management, press, etc. -- it's the expectation of each individual player. They play hard all the time for themselves and their teammates first! You really think a guy like Derek Jeter would slack off in today's game just cause it's 'meaningless'? What kind of an example would it be for the guys on the field? These professional athletes didn't get to this point of their careers by slacking off in 'meaningless' games. They have pride, hard wort ethic, and a desire to WIN at all times! It might be a meaningless game in terms of the standings, but it's not 'meaningless' for the players on the field! They will play to win the game!
I will point out again, why didn't Baltimore, Philly, and Houston lay-down last night? The game was meaningless to them! Why did they play hard all game long and won?
I hope you watch today's game between NY and Tampa. I hope you watch Jeter and Co. give their best effort to win the game. Maybe you'll realize what an athlete's desire to win a game is all about.
Finally, a lot of handicappers say things like you just mentioned to make themselves feel all 'warm and fuzzy' inside when they're making a bet. If assuming that Yankees will play at 70% of their ability to justify your Tampa bet to yourself, then by all means go for it. I'm just curious to know how did Houston, Baltimore, and Philly give lackadaisical effort last night and still won their respective games against teams giving 100%?
I'm sorry, but this is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read. I've already had a discussion with someone else about players giving their ALL on the field and you can't be more wrong here.
I totally agree with you here, Bodio. This is not about players not giving their ALL, and my post was not related to this either, it is more about resting key players, and managerial decisions during the game which would reflect a desire to preserve important players rather than going "ALL IN" for the victory.
Just to be clear, this is completely different than players not giving 100% effort.
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
I'm sorry, but this is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read. I've already had a discussion with someone else about players giving their ALL on the field and you can't be more wrong here.
I totally agree with you here, Bodio. This is not about players not giving their ALL, and my post was not related to this either, it is more about resting key players, and managerial decisions during the game which would reflect a desire to preserve important players rather than going "ALL IN" for the victory.
Just to be clear, this is completely different than players not giving 100% effort.
Not to knock the best baseball capper on the board, but I'm a little unclear as to how you generally don't take situational angles into effect, but yet are making this play with "the greatest factor" being the White Sox not having Ozzie...
BOL tonight
Yeah I included that as a factor but even with Ozzie in there, Blue Jays would be a play for me. White Sox are already a very weak offensive lineup and will be facing a very solid pitcher for the first time. With Ozzie missing, this is just another 'distraction'. Bottom line here is that Jays have a better starting pitcher and better offense on the mound that is very successful against lefties. Buehlre is an average pitcher backed up by a very mediocre O. Clear advantage for the Jays in this one at at +121 odds provides a lot of 'value'.
By the way, I never said I don't take situational angles into consideration. The' right' situational angles are very important, especially in sports like basketball and football. The fact that Ozzie won't be managing for the White Sox is an interesting 'situational' angle and it might have an 'impact' on an already very mediocre lineup and team as a whole.
But saying that team A is in a 'must win game' while team B is not, is not the right 'situational' angle from my perspective. I'll say it again: Atlanta, Houston, and Baltimore were all playing teams in 'must win' scenarios yesterday. How did that turn out?
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Quote Originally Posted by P4P:
Not to knock the best baseball capper on the board, but I'm a little unclear as to how you generally don't take situational angles into effect, but yet are making this play with "the greatest factor" being the White Sox not having Ozzie...
BOL tonight
Yeah I included that as a factor but even with Ozzie in there, Blue Jays would be a play for me. White Sox are already a very weak offensive lineup and will be facing a very solid pitcher for the first time. With Ozzie missing, this is just another 'distraction'. Bottom line here is that Jays have a better starting pitcher and better offense on the mound that is very successful against lefties. Buehlre is an average pitcher backed up by a very mediocre O. Clear advantage for the Jays in this one at at +121 odds provides a lot of 'value'.
By the way, I never said I don't take situational angles into consideration. The' right' situational angles are very important, especially in sports like basketball and football. The fact that Ozzie won't be managing for the White Sox is an interesting 'situational' angle and it might have an 'impact' on an already very mediocre lineup and team as a whole.
But saying that team A is in a 'must win game' while team B is not, is not the right 'situational' angle from my perspective. I'll say it again: Atlanta, Houston, and Baltimore were all playing teams in 'must win' scenarios yesterday. How did that turn out?
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keep it up Bo!!
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