Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
2011 MLB Record:
169 - 135 @ 55% for +17.50 Units
Mon 08/29
#1: Florida Marlins -102
Javier Vazquez had a pretty poor start to the season. But check out his month-by-month breakdown:
Apr: 6.39 xFIP / 0.74 K/BB
May: 4.67 xFIP / 2.00 K/BB
Jun: 3.66 xFIP / 4.83 K/BB
Jul: 3.41 xFIP / 3.86 K/BB
Aug: 3.11 xFIP / 5.67 K/BB
Now that's what I call MoM improvement. Vazquez faced this Mets lineup in April (his worst month!) and gave up 5 hits, 2 HR's, and 4 ER's in 6 innings of work. About a month ago in early August, he faced them again and allowed 6 hits and only 2 ER's, with ZERO homers in 6 innings. Well, I expect him to be even better today. Unlike Vazquez, Pelfrey has been pretty consistent this year...consistently mediocre. He has a 4.47 xFIP this season and only a 1.74 K/BB ratio. This will be his 5th start against Florida this season. He only faced another team 5 times in Phillies, and has a 6.84 ERA against them. Pelfrey hasn't faced any other teams, besides FLA + PHI, more than 2 times. It seems like the more he sees a team the higher his ERA is. No wonder that he already sports a 4.63 ERA against the Marlins this year. I expect that to rise after tonight's start. Florida has 21 hits, 12 ER's and 4 HR's against Pelfrey in his 23 innings of work. He has 9 K's in those starts to 13 BB's, and has issued 6 walks over his last 11 innings of work. At the same time, Pelfrey is coming off a 125 pitch outing, his most in 2 years. He is already 1-7 life-time against the 'Fish' and I see another loss for him tonight.
#2: Oakland Athletics -119
I hate backing Oakland on the road, but I just can't pass on these short odds in this matchup. Cahill is coming off an impressive outing against the Yankees, where he allowed 7 hits and only 2 ER's while striking out 6 and walking 2. He was very good in that one. Now he'll be facing a team against whom he has a 3.06 ERA in 3 career starts. Indians are decimated with injuries to their top offensive weapons: Hafner, Sizemore, Brantley, and now Choo, and if Cahill performs to the abilities he showed against the 'Bombers', he should be able to keep this current lineup in 'check' similar to McCarthy last night. One thing that will be different from last night for this A's offense is that they won't be facing a lefty. In A's last 3 games they faced Huff, Bedard, and Lester -- all 3 are left-handed. This offense generated 4 runs and averaged 5.3 hits per game in those 3 contests. The last 3 righties they faced were: Wakefield, Hughes, and Colon. In those 3 games, A's offense scored 30 runs and averaged 14 hits per contest. Hmmm. Gomez is a marginal pitcher, who is making his 2nd career start against the A's. He already faced them once this year and allowed 6 hits and 2 BB's in 5 innings of work. Fortunately for him, he gave up only 1 ER in that one, as he was fairly lucky. There's a reason why Gomez hasn't pitched in the majors since July 17th and being called up for this game to face a squad that has seen him before does not bode well for his chances of success. Check out A's potential lineup for today's game:
1. Jemile Weeks (S) 2B
2. Coco Crisp (S) CF
3. Hideki Matsui (L) DH
4. Josh Willingham (R) LF
5. Brandon Allen (L) 1B
6. David DeJesus (L) RF
7. Kurt Suzuki (R) C
8. Cliff Pennington (S) SS
9. Scott Sizemore (R) 3B
That's at least 6 left-handed batters in there. Gomez' xFIP against lefties is 5.04 this season. You do the math! I like the A's to pick up a 'rare' road victory in this one tonight.
#3: Chicago Cubs +130
This Giants offense has hit a new low. They're the worst hitting team in the majors for the month of August and have scored a total of 10 runs in the past 6 games averaging 5.7 hits per contest. Today, they'll be facing one of the better pitchers in the majors in Garza. I know his 'record' might not show it, but statistically, Garza is a stud. Better yet, this will be his first career start against the Giants, so the 'unfamiliarity' angle is in play here. Opposite Garza is Vogelsong. He's had a tremendous year but I believe he's slowing down a bit. In his last 2 starts (both against a weak HOU squad), Vogelsong gave up 10 hits and issued 8 walks, in 14 innings of work. He only had 7 K's in those 2 games and surrendered 5 ER's. This will be his 3rd time this season facing the Cubbies. He was dominant against them in May, allowing ZERO ER's on 7 hits in 6 innings (7 K's to 1 BB). He was average in June, allowing 3 ER's (6 runs total) on 6 hits, 2 HR's in 5 innings of work (6 K's to 4 BB's). How is he going to perform against them tonight? Well, his BABIP of .275 on the season, strand rate of 80%, and E-F of -1.1 indicates that further 'regression' to the mean is in order. His career xFIP of 4.80 (3.93 this year) indicates that as well. Cubs will be the first team this year that he'll face more than 2 times, and I believe this offense could do some damage against him tonight. Too much 'value' on the Cubs here as I have them winning this game 52% of the time and not the 42% that the odds indicate.
#4: New York Yankees -131
Initially NYY were my lean just based off statistics but the price of -150 wasn't right. Well, guess what, the price dropped almost 20 cents in most places. At this price this is an easy play IMO. CC was -150 last time he pitched in Boston while facing Lackey, and now he's 20 cents cheaper. Could he go 0-5 against Boston this year? Sure he could, but with the 'Bombers' having a strong lefty-lineup in there (Lackey's xFIP is 4.55 against left-handers this year), I expect New York to prevail here. A top 15 pitcher against a guy that I have ranked as #180 in the league. It's a pretty easy decision at this price.
Good luck!
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Card should be final as I don't see myself adding anything else. Yankees were a strong lean but the model didn't like the price of -150.
At -130 it's a different story and it's a play.
Good luck all!
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