Posted:
#26
Good luck Bodio. On Cleveland tonight too. 
0
Bodio's MLB Mon 05/23
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by HoyasSax:
Bodio,
Been looking at your plays and we cap in similar fashion...Those are also my top 2 plays...I assume you are a fangraphs follower based on your write up...Two totals caught my eye 1.) Cin/Phi U7.5
2.) Hou/LAD U7...I dont like to lock in totals till I see umps so would love to get your thoughts...
Also, how do you breakdown baseball? I was wondering if you have a model as I usually start with fangraphs as a starting point, then look at trennds, then go from there..
Thanks man and appreciate your input
Bodio,
Been looking at your plays and we cap in similar fashion...Those are also my top 2 plays...I assume you are a fangraphs follower based on your write up...Two totals caught my eye 1.) Cin/Phi U7.5
2.) Hou/LAD U7...I dont like to lock in totals till I see umps so would love to get your thoughts...
Also, how do you breakdown baseball? I was wondering if you have a model as I usually start with fangraphs as a starting point, then look at trennds, then go from there..
Thanks man and appreciate your input
Yes, I have an advanced Excel model (keep updating it as we go along to make it better and better -- hopefully 
) that performs certain calculations to identify 'value' plays for me. I do use fangraphs for majority of the data in the model. Even after identifying those, I still breakdown every MLB game (even the ones my model doesn't recommend) just to see if I find some 'value' or an interesting angle that's worth exploiting. It's rare, but sometimes I go with a play that wasn't initially on my model's radar.
Cin/Phi U -- Cincinnati has had a lot of success against lefties this year. That being said, Hamels has been their cryptonie historically. I believe he's like 7-0 against them or something like that. Phillies have had success off Arroyo but their bats have been pretty cold lately. All in all, I see some value in this play actually. My model has this one at 6.7 runs.
Hou/LAD U - definitely some value here as well. I have this one at 6.2. Kershaw is in a rebound mode for sure and Norris has excellent advanced stats. Going up against a Dodgers team that is likely missing Ethier and Barajas today, is definitely a bouns. This one was on my strong leans list, but I can't remember why I decided to lay off this one. Hmmmm....
0
Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Yes, I have an advanced Excel model (keep updating it as we go along to make it better and better -- hopefully ) that performs certain calculations to identify 'value' plays for me. I do use fangraphs for majority of the data in the model. Even after identifying those, I still breakdown every MLB game (even the ones my model doesn't recommend) just to see if I find some 'value' or an interesting angle that's worth exploiting. It's rare, but sometimes I go with a play that wasn't initially on my model's radar.
Cin/Phi U -- Cincinnati has had a lot of success against lefties this year. That being said, Hamels has been their cryptonie historically. I believe he's like 7-0 against them or something like that. Phillies have had success off Arroyo but their bats have been pretty cold lately. All in all, I see some value in this play actually. My model has this one at 6.7 runs.
Hou/LAD U - definitely some value here as well. I have this one at 6.2. Kershaw is in a rebound mode for sure and Norris has excellent advanced stats. Going up against a Dodgers team that is likely missing Ethier and Barajas today, is definitely a bouns. This one was on my strong leans list, but I can't remember why I decided to lay off this one. Hmmmm....
I remember why I passed on that LAD/HOU total...the wind is supposed to be blowing out at 11-14 mph..
0
Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by p4l:
whats ur call on tb and det over? the bull pen for both teams is just horrible!
also, whats ur call for sea ml?
I have that one at 8.1 so that total is right on. Sure the BP's are pretty bad but neither offense has been lighting things up. Coke has been impressive his last 2 starts, especially the one against the hot Red Sox team. Hellickson is coming off an 80+ pitch performance so he should be rested for this one. Just not enough factors for me to take the OVER.
Sea ML -- definitely was on my 'leans' list. Pavano has pitched much better the last 2 outings while Vargas is coming off a 115 pitch performance. He tends to struggle when going over 110 pitches in a game before. Was an easy PASS
0
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by B1AZE:
I like the picks but you keep talking about regression from babip, fip, xfip etc. You say Clay Buchholz is due for regression and he's been lucky with his 286 babip but his career babip is 285???? So honestly he's about right where he should be and isnt getting lucky.
I like the picks but you keep talking about regression from babip, fip, xfip etc. You say Clay Buchholz is due for regression and he's been lucky with his 286 babip but his career babip is 285???? So honestly he's about right where he should be and isnt getting lucky.
If anything regresses it will be his HR/9 thus lowers the era.
Also when you say player (x) is going to regress its totally true. However, it might not even be this season. Look at all the guys who got extremely lucky the whole year last year and years past. Regression does eventually happen but to assume its going to happen any game now is a coin flip...Because truth is, it could be today OR August. Who knows....
Keep up the good work but i actually do research for an analytical baseball site so i wanted to stress that when someone is due to regress, it doesnt mean he will. We've (saber guys) have been waiting for Matt Cains BABIP to get to 300 for 4 years lol....some guys just dont regress in some sorts.
Excellent points and very true. I didn't fade Buchholz every game in his last 4 just waiting for regression, because like you said, it could come at any time. Those situations just weren't right to do so and glad I didn't as Red Sox won all 4 of his last 4 starts. But today, coming off a 127 pitch outing, and facing a potent lineup that is averaging 5.5 rpg at home, I feel the situation is right to 'fade' him.
0
Posted:
#50
Quote Originally Posted by Dougheyez:
GL Bodio. Im with ya on White Sox, but the Indians/Red Sox make me nervous. This home series againt the Sox are going to tell ALOT about this team. I think they might get a reality check. I kind of like the over though. Whatcha think?
GL Bodio. Im with ya on White Sox, but the Indians/Red Sox make me nervous. This home series againt the Sox are going to tell ALOT about this team. I think they might get a reality check. I kind of like the over though. Whatcha think?
Not sure about the total. I have the posted # as right-on.
0
Hot Forum Topics
