Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
61 - 45 @ 57% for +10.55 Units
Mon, 05/23
#1: Cleveland Indians +105
Masterson has a superb 2.69 FIP (#19th) and 3.32 xFIP (#40th). HIs .309 BABIP indicates that those numbers are pretty accurate so far this year. Buchholz is coming into this game with 4.55 FIP (#116th) and 4.26 xFIP (#120th). With a .282 BABIP (lucky) and -1.13 E-F (20th highest to the negative) he's a prime candidate for regression. Why not against a hot Cleveland team at home where the Indians are averaging 5.5 rpg, en route to a 18-4 home record? I know Buchholz has had 4 quality outings in a row, but he is coming into this one having thrown 127 pitches his last time out. That's the most pitches he has thrown in his career. I don't expect Buchholz to last past the 6th in this one, at which point the Indians will face this Boston bullpen which has an ERA of 4.12 and FIP of 4.18 in the past week. Finally I want to point out that Boston will be traveling to Cleveland after their Sunday Night game against the Cubs. Even though travel is not a significant factor in baseball handicapping, it's still something to consider here, since the Red Sox will be facing a rested Indians team playing their 4th consecutive home game (and coming off an early game on Sunday).
#2: Chicago White Sox +145
Will Danks finally get his first win of the season here? I think so. Danks has decent stats, with 4.05 FIP and 3.99 xFIP on the season. HIs .313 BABIP is a bit unlucky and +.27 E-F indicates that regression to the positive is in order. Danks faced this Rangers lineup in his last outing, giving up 2 ER's on 4 hits. He did issue 6 walks in the game, which is a career high, but I expect him to correct that tonight. Life-time, this Rangers lineup is batting .217 off him with .288 OBP and .628 OPS. What's more important is that guys like Michael Young (2 for 15 for .133 BA with 7 K's) and Ian Kinsler (4 for 18 for .222 BA and 3 K's) haven't hit him well at all. Rangers are pretty cold right now averaging 1.25 rpg in their last 4 and going 2-4 in the last 6 games. I expect Danks to pitch really well against them tonight. Opposite Danks is Ogando, who has a solid 3.88 FIP and 3.77 xFIP on the season (not too far off from Danks). What's interesting is that Ogando has a very lucky BABIP of .196 with a GB% of only 39%. This is an indication of being very LUCKY so far. Ogando has a 92% LOB% for the season (ave is around 70%) and a -1.75 E-F (8th worst), indicating that regression to the mean is imminent. Why not against a White Sox lineup that is averaging 7.25 rpg in their last 4? Throw in the fact that Ogando has thrown the most pitches of his career in his last outing (116) and I really like this Sox lineup to put up some runs on him in this one. Rangers bullpen has an FIP of 5.04 over the last week or so, and I expect Chicago to have an advantage in the later innings as well. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games and I expect them to continue to stay hot tonight.
Good luck!
61 - 45 @ 57% for +10.55 Units
Mon, 05/23
#1: Cleveland Indians +105
Masterson has a superb 2.69 FIP (#19th) and 3.32 xFIP (#40th). HIs .309 BABIP indicates that those numbers are pretty accurate so far this year. Buchholz is coming into this game with 4.55 FIP (#116th) and 4.26 xFIP (#120th). With a .282 BABIP (lucky) and -1.13 E-F (20th highest to the negative) he's a prime candidate for regression. Why not against a hot Cleveland team at home where the Indians are averaging 5.5 rpg, en route to a 18-4 home record? I know Buchholz has had 4 quality outings in a row, but he is coming into this one having thrown 127 pitches his last time out. That's the most pitches he has thrown in his career. I don't expect Buchholz to last past the 6th in this one, at which point the Indians will face this Boston bullpen which has an ERA of 4.12 and FIP of 4.18 in the past week. Finally I want to point out that Boston will be traveling to Cleveland after their Sunday Night game against the Cubs. Even though travel is not a significant factor in baseball handicapping, it's still something to consider here, since the Red Sox will be facing a rested Indians team playing their 4th consecutive home game (and coming off an early game on Sunday).
#2: Chicago White Sox +145
Will Danks finally get his first win of the season here? I think so. Danks has decent stats, with 4.05 FIP and 3.99 xFIP on the season. HIs .313 BABIP is a bit unlucky and +.27 E-F indicates that regression to the positive is in order. Danks faced this Rangers lineup in his last outing, giving up 2 ER's on 4 hits. He did issue 6 walks in the game, which is a career high, but I expect him to correct that tonight. Life-time, this Rangers lineup is batting .217 off him with .288 OBP and .628 OPS. What's more important is that guys like Michael Young (2 for 15 for .133 BA with 7 K's) and Ian Kinsler (4 for 18 for .222 BA and 3 K's) haven't hit him well at all. Rangers are pretty cold right now averaging 1.25 rpg in their last 4 and going 2-4 in the last 6 games. I expect Danks to pitch really well against them tonight. Opposite Danks is Ogando, who has a solid 3.88 FIP and 3.77 xFIP on the season (not too far off from Danks). What's interesting is that Ogando has a very lucky BABIP of .196 with a GB% of only 39%. This is an indication of being very LUCKY so far. Ogando has a 92% LOB% for the season (ave is around 70%) and a -1.75 E-F (8th worst), indicating that regression to the mean is imminent. Why not against a White Sox lineup that is averaging 7.25 rpg in their last 4? Throw in the fact that Ogando has thrown the most pitches of his career in his last outing (116) and I really like this Sox lineup to put up some runs on him in this one. Rangers bullpen has an FIP of 5.04 over the last week or so, and I expect Chicago to have an advantage in the later innings as well. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games and I expect them to continue to stay hot tonight.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
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