Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
157 - 127 @ 55% for +15.08 Units
Fri 08/19
#1: UNDER 7.5 SEA/TBR -120
Felix Hernandez is pitching like a stud. He's allowed 9 ER's on 23 hits in his last 29 innings pitched with 28 K's to 9 BB's. Four of those runs and 9 hits came in his last outing against Boston, which is one of the best offensive teams in the league. I'm sure it's safe to say that Tampa is a 'step-down' in class. Hernandez has a 2.29 ERA and 1.07 WHIP against Tampa. Earlier this year he held them to 5 hits in 7 innings with 1 ER and 11 K's to 2 BB's. It doesn't hurt that Tampa is below average offensively against right-handers, ranked #19 out of 30 teams. I expect him to be dominant again tonight. Opposite King Felix is Wade Davis. Even though Davis is a mediocre pitcher, he is facing a Seattle lineup ravaged with injuries. Even one of their hottest hitters, Casper Wells, got blasted by a fastball in his nose in Seattle's last game. I expect him to be out today. Davis faced the Mariners once this year already allowing 5 ER's on 5 hits in 7 innings of work. Here was Seattle's lineup in that game:
1. Ichiro Suzuki (L) RF
2. Brendan Ryan (R) SS
3. Justin Smoak (S) 1B
4. Jack Cust (L) DH
5. Adam Kennedy (L) 2B
6. Miguel Olivo (R) C
7. Carlos Peguero (L) LF
8. Chone Figgins (S) 3B
9. Greg Halman (R) CF
Look at their probable lineup in tonight's game:
1. Ichiro Suzuki (L) DH
2. Franklin Gutierrez (R) CF
3. Dustin Ackley (L) 2B
4. Mike Carp (L) 1B
5. Casper Wells (R) RF
6. Trayvon Robinson (S) LF
7. Kyle Seager (L) 3B
8. Josh Bard (S) C
9. Jack Wilson (R) SS
There might be only 1 or 2 players from that lineup on June 5th, who will be hitting for Seattle tonight (Olivo should be back but Wells will be out). Most of these young players have never faced Davis before, and that's a big advantage for him. I expect him to be decent tonight.
The O/U in Rays' home games is 19-38 (67% to the UNDER) this year. My model has this one at 6.5 total runs being scored, so 8 would be needed for this wager to lose. I love the 'factors' in play here and expect this one to be a low scoring affair.
#2: OVER 9.5 LAD/COL -110
I'll go from taking the UNDER to taking the OVER. I wish I got this number at 9 but was a bit too slow to pull the trigger. Either way, I still love this play at 9.5. First of all, I want to point out that Kuroda is a solid pitcher and is having a great year (except his record). That being said, he typically struggles against the Rockies. Sure he had a nice outing against them at home this year, but his 2 starts in Coors Field last year were total disasters. Interesting thing about Kuroda is his L/R splits. Against right-handed hitters his career xFIP is 3.15, which is above average. Against lefties though, it's 4.15, a huge discrepancy. You better believe it that Rockies will have a lefty-heavy lineup in there today (just like most days) with CarGo, Helton, Giambi, Young, Fowler, and Smith all being left-handed. This is part of the reason why Colorado is #6 offensively against right-handers this season. Opposite Kuroda is Jason Hammel. Sure he's coming off a decent outing against St. Louis, but he had 1K to 3 BB's in that one. The guy has a terrible 1.27 K/BB ratio with a measly 4.78 K/9. What is interesting about Hammel is that he already faced the Dodgers 3 times this year. In those starts he allowed 23 hits in 14.2 innings of work, 13 ER's, 3 HR's, with 5 K's (5K's in 3 starts!!!) and 8 BB's. Hammel has a 5.56 xFIP against lefties this season (4.05 against righties) and Dodgers have a number of bats at their disposal that can hit from the left-side of the plate. The O/U is a combined 11-6 when these 2 pitchers are facing these respective opponents. At the same time, Colorado is averaging almost 12 hits per game and 8.0 rpg in their last 3 home games. As I expect their offense to stay 'hot', I also see Dodgers plating some runs against Hammel. Wouldn't be surprised if both teams each reach 5 runs tonight. My model has this one at 11.5 total runs and I expect this one to go OVER tonight.
Good luck
157 - 127 @ 55% for +15.08 Units
Fri 08/19
#1: UNDER 7.5 SEA/TBR -120
Felix Hernandez is pitching like a stud. He's allowed 9 ER's on 23 hits in his last 29 innings pitched with 28 K's to 9 BB's. Four of those runs and 9 hits came in his last outing against Boston, which is one of the best offensive teams in the league. I'm sure it's safe to say that Tampa is a 'step-down' in class. Hernandez has a 2.29 ERA and 1.07 WHIP against Tampa. Earlier this year he held them to 5 hits in 7 innings with 1 ER and 11 K's to 2 BB's. It doesn't hurt that Tampa is below average offensively against right-handers, ranked #19 out of 30 teams. I expect him to be dominant again tonight. Opposite King Felix is Wade Davis. Even though Davis is a mediocre pitcher, he is facing a Seattle lineup ravaged with injuries. Even one of their hottest hitters, Casper Wells, got blasted by a fastball in his nose in Seattle's last game. I expect him to be out today. Davis faced the Mariners once this year already allowing 5 ER's on 5 hits in 7 innings of work. Here was Seattle's lineup in that game:
1. Ichiro Suzuki (L) RF
2. Brendan Ryan (R) SS
3. Justin Smoak (S) 1B
4. Jack Cust (L) DH
5. Adam Kennedy (L) 2B
6. Miguel Olivo (R) C
7. Carlos Peguero (L) LF
8. Chone Figgins (S) 3B
9. Greg Halman (R) CF
Look at their probable lineup in tonight's game:
1. Ichiro Suzuki (L) DH
2. Franklin Gutierrez (R) CF
3. Dustin Ackley (L) 2B
4. Mike Carp (L) 1B
5. Casper Wells (R) RF
6. Trayvon Robinson (S) LF
7. Kyle Seager (L) 3B
8. Josh Bard (S) C
9. Jack Wilson (R) SS
There might be only 1 or 2 players from that lineup on June 5th, who will be hitting for Seattle tonight (Olivo should be back but Wells will be out). Most of these young players have never faced Davis before, and that's a big advantage for him. I expect him to be decent tonight.
The O/U in Rays' home games is 19-38 (67% to the UNDER) this year. My model has this one at 6.5 total runs being scored, so 8 would be needed for this wager to lose. I love the 'factors' in play here and expect this one to be a low scoring affair.
#2: OVER 9.5 LAD/COL -110
I'll go from taking the UNDER to taking the OVER. I wish I got this number at 9 but was a bit too slow to pull the trigger. Either way, I still love this play at 9.5. First of all, I want to point out that Kuroda is a solid pitcher and is having a great year (except his record). That being said, he typically struggles against the Rockies. Sure he had a nice outing against them at home this year, but his 2 starts in Coors Field last year were total disasters. Interesting thing about Kuroda is his L/R splits. Against right-handed hitters his career xFIP is 3.15, which is above average. Against lefties though, it's 4.15, a huge discrepancy. You better believe it that Rockies will have a lefty-heavy lineup in there today (just like most days) with CarGo, Helton, Giambi, Young, Fowler, and Smith all being left-handed. This is part of the reason why Colorado is #6 offensively against right-handers this season. Opposite Kuroda is Jason Hammel. Sure he's coming off a decent outing against St. Louis, but he had 1K to 3 BB's in that one. The guy has a terrible 1.27 K/BB ratio with a measly 4.78 K/9. What is interesting about Hammel is that he already faced the Dodgers 3 times this year. In those starts he allowed 23 hits in 14.2 innings of work, 13 ER's, 3 HR's, with 5 K's (5K's in 3 starts!!!) and 8 BB's. Hammel has a 5.56 xFIP against lefties this season (4.05 against righties) and Dodgers have a number of bats at their disposal that can hit from the left-side of the plate. The O/U is a combined 11-6 when these 2 pitchers are facing these respective opponents. At the same time, Colorado is averaging almost 12 hits per game and 8.0 rpg in their last 3 home games. As I expect their offense to stay 'hot', I also see Dodgers plating some runs against Hammel. Wouldn't be surprised if both teams each reach 5 runs tonight. My model has this one at 11.5 total runs and I expect this one to go OVER tonight.
Good luck
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