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Bodio's MLB Fri 07/22

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Posted: #51
BOL BO
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:

I apologize but why the over when you posted the below?

Norris is coming off a couple of poor outings, and has thrown 111 pitches his last time out.  Norris has a 1.5 ERA and 1.4 WHIP as he issued 10 walks in his 2 career starts against the Cubs.  Zambrano was off DL and threw under 90 pitches last time out so should be 'fresh'.  He has a 2.73 ERA and 1.1 WHIP against the Astros.  

This would lead me to believe UNDER?


Hot weather in Wrigley with pitchers that could implode at any time, and a total under 9.  Tiny lean to the OVER.  I would actually avoid this game altogether.  
 
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Posted: #53
Didn't Juan Uribe also shoot a friend or relative in the Dominican a few years ago when he was on the White Sox? Must be something in the water, either that or they are originally from the West Side of Chicago
 
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Posted: #54
gl bodio
 
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Posted: #55
Have a nice day bodio and thanks for all your work
Both Ds are giving up 5 runs 
HOU-3.9 / 5.0
CHC-4.0 / 5.1
Looks like at least 8 runs in this game and with the Humidity.
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Can't argue with your logic.  UNDER does seem a bit too easy but I gotta go with the numbers.  Also, the UNDER is 9-1 in Phillies' last 10 home games...that doesn't hurt


I honestly think its the HEAT that is affecting this total.  Heat index is 120 degrees here in Richmond VA.  This is the kind of weather that kills people.  I don't see either starter lasting more than 5 innings tonight. If they do, I will be very impressed.
 
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Posted: #57
Houston is 3-13 on Fridays
 
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Posted: #58
Or is he swimming with the Fishes............ hahahahaha
 
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Posted: #59
Houston Line just dropped about c5 depending on ur book.  Is it the sharpies so that they can jump on CHC at a lower price?
 
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Posted: #60
Hey BOD's couple things about the HOU/CHIC game since you're asking. This is now what I see for weather. 77 degrees and Thundershowers with a 29 mph win blowing NNW, NW is left to right so NNW is slightly in. " https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/stadiums/2011/stadium2998_overall.html "

Also last night a buddy of mine in the "hot lines" article was talking about playing HOU. Here is his post:

"Right now I'm leaning on a underdog for tomorrows only day game. (MLB) Houston Astros MoneyLine +133. Will let everyone know if I pull the trigger tomorrow early afternoon.baseball is all about betting a team at the right time. There is one guarantee in baseball every team will win at least 60 games and every team will lose at least 60 games it's the games in between those that make the difference. Now with that being said, the Houston Astros now head to the only ballpark where they have pulled off a sweep in 2011. The Astros have won nine of 11 at Wrigley. Yes Zambrano has shut them down before. I like Houston for a small play at this point. GL to you "

And then my reply: "Just hate betting on TWO turrible teams (like I did with SD&FLA today) so many inconsistencies and ways to lose. Not saying HOUIE gets skunked the rest of the year just saying both teams are great at losing so picking one to win is tricky. HOU is the worst team in the bigs and CHIC only has a half dozen more wins than them

Also have to admit I find it funny for once I'm getting questioned about NOT picking a game lolol. BOL bro I like your style and your capping,plus I'm not on it so get what your going after buddy."
 
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Posted: #61
Cardinals @ Pirates +124 (O/U: 7.5)

The Cardinals have won 5 straight and 7 of 9 games which Carp has started.  At the same time Pirates are 6-4 in Maholm's last 10 starts.  Maholm has a 1.93 home ERA (4.45 on the road).  Advanced stats confirm this with a 3.77 / 4.31 xFIP home/away split.  Maholm has a 2.99 / 4.27 xFIP Lefty/Righty split.  His .246 BABIP against right-handed batters is very lucky.  Cards have a number of right-handed players in their lineup.  He has a 3.33 ERA and 1.4 career WHIP versus the Cardinals with a 4-4 record.  Carpenter has better advanced stats but away ERA of 4.46.  His away xFIP is 3.52 compared to 3.29 at home, but really no difference in his career H/A splits.  Carp has a 2.09 ERA and 0.9 WHIP against the Pirates in his career with a 11-2 record.  

Cardinals are 11-5 as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range.  Pirates are 7-3 when playing with a day-off and 26-18 after a loss.  

Suggestion:  UNDER might be the best play here.  At -130 it's a bit hard to back the Cards on the road, even behind Carpenter, as the Pirates have a better bullpen and seem to find ways to win close games.  Small lean to Cards but not enough to make it a play.  



 
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Posted: #62
GL today bodio. As far as the Cubs/Houston game today, they both stink, no play for me.
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by karkeith:

Didn't Juan Uribe also shoot a friend or relative in the Dominican a few years ago when he was on the White Sox? Must be something in the water, either that or they are originally from the West Side of Chicago

haha...
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:



I honestly think its the HEAT that is affecting this total.  Heat index is 120 degrees here in Richmond VA.  This is the kind of weather that kills people.  I don't see either starter lasting more than 5 innings tonight. If they do, I will be very impressed.

You'd be surprised.  These are professional athletes we're talking about here.  Splash some cold water in between innings, and they should be good to go! 
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


You'd be surprised.  These are professional athletes we're talking about here.  Splash some cold water in between innings, and they should be good to go! 


Professional athlete or not, pitching in 120 degree heat index weather will limit you to 5-6 IP max. It is indeed weather that can kill you if you don't stay incredibly hydrated, and these guys aren't just standing around out there, the pitchers that is. You saw what it did to Roy Halladay, came out after like 4 IP just because 'it's fucking hot'.
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by willwrig:

Houston Line just dropped about c5 depending on ur book.  Is it the sharpies so that they can jump on CHC at a lower price?

Who knows?  

You can call Houston the 'sharp' play since Norris definitely has better numbers than Zambrano and is a fairly significant underdog, but something tells me Cubs will win this one.  
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

 

Also have to admit I find it funny for once I'm getting questioned about NOT picking a game lolol. BOL bro I like your style and your capping,plus I'm not on it so get what your going after buddy."

haha...now that's funny!  Good luck buddy!  No day action for me.


 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by Rahzel525:



Professional athlete or not, pitching in 120 degree heat index weather will limit you to 5-6 IP max. It is indeed weather that can kill you if you don't stay incredibly hydrated, and these guys aren't just standing around out there, the pitchers that is. You saw what it did to Roy Halladay, came out after like 4 IP just because 'it's fucking hot'.

Verlander went 8 strong innings in a 95 degree weather a couple of starts ago.  It's not impossible.

Either way, even if these guys go 5/6 innings, SD has one of the best bullpens out there and Padres' offense sucks.  
 
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Posted: #69
Padres @ Phillies -185 (O/U: 7.5)

Luebke has a 2.57 xFIP #3 in the majors with a 2.0 tERA #2 in the majors.  Hamels has a 2.85 xFIP, #6 in the majors and a 2.7 tERA, #6 in the majors.  Both have tremendous numbers this year.  Luebke has never started against Philly (unfamiliarity factor) while Hamels has a 2.42 ERA and 0.86 WHIP against the Pads.  Hamels is coming off a really poor outing and after throwing only 83 pitches, I expect him to be very sharp today.  Padres have the #3 bullpen while Pilly has the #16 offense.  Philly has the #22 bullpen while Padres have the #29 offense.  It's supposed to be very hot today, around 100 degrees in Philadelphia.  

A key factor to remember is that the Phillies are the 5th worst offensive team against lefties this year.  Padres are middle of the pack against lefties.  The O/U is 12-16 in Padres games against a lefty pitcher and 11-14 in Philly games in the same scenario.  

Suggestion:  UNDER.  Sure, I know it's hot, but I still expect these 2 pitchers to have an advantage out there today.  Neither lineup is very potent, and both bullpens are fairly rested.  

 
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Posted: #70
My book has under 7 in the SD game...Somebody seems to think under.
The impossible only takes longer….
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Hey BOD's couple things about the HOU/CHIC game since you're asking. This is now what I see for weather. 77 degrees and Thundershowers with a 29 mph win blowing NNW, NW is left to right so NNW is slightly in. " https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/stadiums/2011/stadium2998_overall.html "

Also last night a buddy of mine in the "hot lines" article was talking about playing HOU. Here is his post:

"Right now I'm leaning on a underdog for tomorrows only day game. (MLB) Houston Astros MoneyLine +133. Will let everyone know if I pull the trigger tomorrow early afternoon.baseball is all about betting a team at the right time. There is one guarantee in baseball every team will win at least 60 games and every team will lose at least 60 games it's the games in between those that make the difference. Now with that being said, the Houston Astros now head to the only ballpark where they have pulled off a sweep in 2011. The Astros have won nine of 11 at Wrigley. Yes Zambrano has shut them down before. I like Houston for a small play at this point. GL to you "

And then my reply: "Just hate betting on TWO turrible teams (like I did with SD&FLA today) so many inconsistencies and ways to lose. Not saying HOUIE gets skunked the rest of the year just saying both teams are great at losing so picking one to win is tricky. HOU is the worst team in the bigs and CHIC only has a half dozen more wins than them

Also have to admit I find it funny for once I'm getting questioned about NOT picking a game lolol. BOL bro I like your style and your capping,plus I'm not on it so get what your going after buddy."

Mariners are worse.
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Verlander went 8 strong innings in a 95 degree weather a couple of starts ago.  It's not impossible.

Either way, even if these guys go 5/6 innings, SD has one of the best bullpens out there and Padres' offense sucks.  


I would argue that Verlander is on a different level than off-and-on Zambrano and anybody on the Astro's roster.

I'm not saying your leans/bets are wrong, you know more about this than do I. I'm sure it will end up a 3-2 game. :)
 
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Posted: #73
Mets @ Marlins -130 (O/U: 8.5)

Two pretty mediocre pitchers square off in this one.  Pelfrey is 1-7 against Florida with a 5.24 ERA.  Volstad is 1-2 against NY with a 3.18 ERA.  He's coming off a 45-pitch outing.  

David Wright should be back for New York in this one.  

Mets are 12-4 as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range.  
Fish are 14-7 at home against the Mets in their last 21.

Suggestion:  PASS
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by Rahzel525:



I would argue that Verlander is on a different level than off-and-on Zambrano and anybody on the Astro's roster.

I'm not saying your leans/bets are wrong, you know more about this than do I. I'm sure it will end up a 3-2 game. :)

We were talking about the Philly/SanDiego game.  Hammels is on a same level as Verlander and Luebke is pitching out of his mind right now.  
 
 
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Posted: #75
I hate betting games that look like they'll have inclement weather but if weather is a factor I think the pens will also be a factor and HOU may have an edge there. HOU's road era is better than CHIC's home era and L10 HOU is 1.19 while CHIC's is 7.34. Still with bad weather I'm passing....for once

Couple other things while I'm here and then I'll leave ya alone....I kinda like LAA coming off their big series win against their division rivals who they're battling for the playoffs but I don't know the team well enough to know whether they'll be pumped about it or have a letdown game. My gut would say with Socia as their boss they will be prepared but ???

My fave play after a quick glance over the games is ATL. JJ is still looking good and ATL is a healthy 13-4 when he goes whereas CIN is only 9-10 in Arroyo's starts. Only concern is Arroyo is such a sketch-bag ya never know what you're gonna get with him. But they did smoke him already once this year.

Then two small dogs that look attractive are the Buccos at home against STL who they've won 2 of 3 against this year in STL and then the MUTS in FLA. NYM's likely get Bay and Wright back in the lineup and FLA is coming of a sweep in FLA at the hands of SD so they may be regressing after a little stretch of wins.

Thats as far as I have gotten....Thanx for the all the help and hard work bud. Oh and BC LIONS -3 is my lean right now for 2 units and the U for a single. I'll let you know the final plays for tracking purposes....Later
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