Just like Cubs "fans" are staying away from Wrigley these days...I would stay away from this game. Both these teams are so bad it's a shame either of them get to be a favorite.
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Just like Cubs "fans" are staying away from Wrigley these days...I would stay away from this game. Both these teams are so bad it's a shame either of them get to be a favorite.
BOL today my friend I'm playing the over in Philly. Something is just way off with that line. Under is WAY too easy imo. I think the Heat and Humidity favors the hitters tonight. Its a scorcher out here on the East Coast
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BOL today my friend I'm playing the over in Philly. Something is just way off with that line. Under is WAY too easy imo. I think the Heat and Humidity favors the hitters tonight. Its a scorcher out here on the East Coast
You have excellent points and stats to back that up. WOW! I am leaning Cubs but gonna have to lay off this one.
Good luck today bod!
Yeah, just way too juicy here on one of the worst teams in baseball. HOU though is not as an automatic play as it might seem, even at these odds. Passing here
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Quote Originally Posted by brthestar:
You have excellent points and stats to back that up. WOW! I am leaning Cubs but gonna have to lay off this one.
Good luck today bod!
Yeah, just way too juicy here on one of the worst teams in baseball. HOU though is not as an automatic play as it might seem, even at these odds. Passing here
My one concern is why is this game at 7.5? Seems a bit high. I have this one at 5.5 total runs according to my model. Would need 8 runs to lose. Maybe there's something I'm not aware of, but I really like this play....full analysis will be posted in a little bit
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Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:
4-3 game is a winner. I love it.
My one concern is why is this game at 7.5? Seems a bit high. I have this one at 5.5 total runs according to my model. Would need 8 runs to lose. Maybe there's something I'm not aware of, but I really like this play....full analysis will be posted in a little bit
Just like Cubs "fans" are staying away from Wrigley these days...I would stay away from this game. Both these teams are so bad it's a shame either of them get to be a favorite.
Agree. PASS on this one!
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Quote Originally Posted by Bueller1978:
Just like Cubs "fans" are staying away from Wrigley these days...I would stay away from this game. Both these teams are so bad it's a shame either of them get to be a favorite.
BOL today my friend I'm playing the over in Philly. Something is just way off with that line. Under is WAY too easy imo. I think the Heat and Humidity favors the hitters tonight. Its a scorcher out here on the East Coast
Can't argue with your logic. UNDER does seem a bit too easy but I gotta go with the numbers. Also, the UNDER is 9-1 in Phillies' last 10 home games...that doesn't hurt
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Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:
BOL today my friend I'm playing the over in Philly. Something is just way off with that line. Under is WAY too easy imo. I think the Heat and Humidity favors the hitters tonight. Its a scorcher out here on the East Coast
Can't argue with your logic. UNDER does seem a bit too easy but I gotta go with the numbers. Also, the UNDER is 9-1 in Phillies' last 10 home games...that doesn't hurt
Alright fellas. Because of the super shitty day yesterday, I'm going to spend a little more time capping each game today. I will also be posting some additional thoughts and analysis on EVERY game of today's card.
Just want to give back a bit to the classy people that visit my threads. Good luck all and let's have a profitable day today!
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Alright fellas. Because of the super shitty day yesterday, I'm going to spend a little more time capping each game today. I will also be posting some additional thoughts and analysis on EVERY game of today's card.
Just want to give back a bit to the classy people that visit my threads. Good luck all and let's have a profitable day today!
Big-Z should be rested for this one. He made one start off a stint on DL, and threw 94 pitches in a very poor outing. Will he rebound today against a team that he usually does very well against? Norris has the advantage over Z in most advanced statistics and it an overall a better pitcher at this point of their careers. That being said, he has struggled in his last couple of outings and has even given up 3 HR's to a light-hitting Pirates squad. As I'm typing this, it's pouring here in Chicago, so not sure when the rain will stop. It's hot as hell out here and the wind seems to be blowing out in Wrigley but not at significant enough speed. Possibly a small play on the OVER here. As much 'value' as there seems to be on Houston, something tells me that Cubs might take this one. Big-Z is an enigma, but he might pitch a gem today.
Suggestion: PASS (maybe a small action play on the OVER)
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Astros @ Cubs -150 (O/U: 8.5)
Big-Z should be rested for this one. He made one start off a stint on DL, and threw 94 pitches in a very poor outing. Will he rebound today against a team that he usually does very well against? Norris has the advantage over Z in most advanced statistics and it an overall a better pitcher at this point of their careers. That being said, he has struggled in his last couple of outings and has even given up 3 HR's to a light-hitting Pirates squad. As I'm typing this, it's pouring here in Chicago, so not sure when the rain will stop. It's hot as hell out here and the wind seems to be blowing out in Wrigley but not at significant enough speed. Possibly a small play on the OVER here. As much 'value' as there seems to be on Houston, something tells me that Cubs might take this one. Big-Z is an enigma, but he might pitch a gem today.
Suggestion: PASS (maybe a small action play on the OVER)
Hey bodio whats up bro....I've been following ur forum for a while now, although I cap my own plays and never trail or fade anybodys picks, I do get some insight from the very few good cappers on this site like yourself. Smart move staying away from Hou Cubs game, I hate both these teams. Maybe couple years ago I'd make a degenerate play on this, but not now since I've been smarter picking my spots. Keep up the good work bro, greatly appreciated!
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Hey bodio whats up bro....I've been following ur forum for a while now, although I cap my own plays and never trail or fade anybodys picks, I do get some insight from the very few good cappers on this site like yourself. Smart move staying away from Hou Cubs game, I hate both these teams. Maybe couple years ago I'd make a degenerate play on this, but not now since I've been smarter picking my spots. Keep up the good work bro, greatly appreciated!
Big-Z should be rested for this one. He made one start off a stint on DL, and threw 94 pitches in a very poor outing. Will he rebound today against a team that he usually does very well against? Norris has the advantage over Z in most advanced statistics and it an overall a better pitcher at this point of their careers. That being said, he has struggled in his last couple of outings and has even given up 3 HR's to a light-hitting Pirates squad. As I'm typing this, it's pouring here in Chicago, so not sure when the rain will stop. It's hot as hell out here and the wind seems to be blowing out in Wrigley but not at significant enough speed. Possibly a small play on the OVER here. As much 'value' as there seems to be on Houston, something tells me that Cubs might take this one. Big-Z is an enigma, but he might pitch a gem today.
Suggestion: PASS (maybe a small action play on the OVER)
I apologize but why the over when you posted the below?
Norris is coming off a couple of poor outings, and has thrown 111 pitches his last time out. Norris has a 1.5 ERA and 1.4 WHIP as he issued 10 walks in his 2 career starts against the Cubs. Zambrano was off DL and threw under 90 pitches last time out so should be 'fresh'. He has a 2.73 ERA and 1.1 WHIP against the Astros.
This would lead me to believe UNDER?
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Astros @ Cubs -150 (O/U: 8.5)
Big-Z should be rested for this one. He made one start off a stint on DL, and threw 94 pitches in a very poor outing. Will he rebound today against a team that he usually does very well against? Norris has the advantage over Z in most advanced statistics and it an overall a better pitcher at this point of their careers. That being said, he has struggled in his last couple of outings and has even given up 3 HR's to a light-hitting Pirates squad. As I'm typing this, it's pouring here in Chicago, so not sure when the rain will stop. It's hot as hell out here and the wind seems to be blowing out in Wrigley but not at significant enough speed. Possibly a small play on the OVER here. As much 'value' as there seems to be on Houston, something tells me that Cubs might take this one. Big-Z is an enigma, but he might pitch a gem today.
Suggestion: PASS (maybe a small action play on the OVER)
I apologize but why the over when you posted the below?
Norris is coming off a couple of poor outings, and has thrown 111 pitches his last time out. Norris has a 1.5 ERA and 1.4 WHIP as he issued 10 walks in his 2 career starts against the Cubs. Zambrano was off DL and threw under 90 pitches last time out so should be 'fresh'. He has a 2.73 ERA and 1.1 WHIP against the Astros.
SP for Orioles, Alfredo Simon, is a lead suspect in the
fatal shooting of his cousin on Jan 1st in Dominican Republic.His hearing was suspended when prosecution witnesses
did not show.Hmmm.Am I the only one that finds this very
strange?Did Alfredo pay off the
witnesses to keep their lids shut, or are they already swimming with the fishes? So the Orioles have a potential 'murderer' on the mound today. (Of course nothing is proven and Simon claims it was an accident when he shot his gun that killed his cousin).
Either way, Santana is on the mound for the Angels. His ERA went from 4.89 in Apr, to 3.79 in May, to 3.48 in Jun, to 2.57 in Jul. He has a very solid 3.62 xFIP and a K/BB ratio of almost 3. Santana's road ERA is 4.53, much worse than his 3.39 home ERA. Should that be a concern? Well, when looking at advanced stats, his away xFIP of 3.58 is pretty much the same as his home xFIP of 3.64. His road BABIP of .336 (very unlucky) compared to his home BABIP of .263 (somewhat lucky) explains the variance in H/A ERA. I expect his away ERA to improve going forward. Santana hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in 6 straight starts and I expect him to have a good outing today.
A few concerns: Santana has an ERA of 5.84 against Baltimore and gave up 12 hits and 9 ER's in 3.7 innings to them in his lone start last year. Also, Angels flew cross-country after yesterday's game against the Rangers. Travel is not as big of a factor in baseball is it is in other sports but still something to consider. Baltimore were off yesterday but are 6-7 this year after a day off. They are 13-38 against teams with a winning record.
Suggestion: Angels are worth a shot at these 'short' odds.
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Angels @ Orioles +104 (O/U: 9)
SP for Orioles, Alfredo Simon, is a lead suspect in the
fatal shooting of his cousin on Jan 1st in Dominican Republic.His hearing was suspended when prosecution witnesses
did not show.Hmmm.Am I the only one that finds this very
strange?Did Alfredo pay off the
witnesses to keep their lids shut, or are they already swimming with the fishes? So the Orioles have a potential 'murderer' on the mound today. (Of course nothing is proven and Simon claims it was an accident when he shot his gun that killed his cousin).
Either way, Santana is on the mound for the Angels. His ERA went from 4.89 in Apr, to 3.79 in May, to 3.48 in Jun, to 2.57 in Jul. He has a very solid 3.62 xFIP and a K/BB ratio of almost 3. Santana's road ERA is 4.53, much worse than his 3.39 home ERA. Should that be a concern? Well, when looking at advanced stats, his away xFIP of 3.58 is pretty much the same as his home xFIP of 3.64. His road BABIP of .336 (very unlucky) compared to his home BABIP of .263 (somewhat lucky) explains the variance in H/A ERA. I expect his away ERA to improve going forward. Santana hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in 6 straight starts and I expect him to have a good outing today.
A few concerns: Santana has an ERA of 5.84 against Baltimore and gave up 12 hits and 9 ER's in 3.7 innings to them in his lone start last year. Also, Angels flew cross-country after yesterday's game against the Rangers. Travel is not as big of a factor in baseball is it is in other sports but still something to consider. Baltimore were off yesterday but are 6-7 this year after a day off. They are 13-38 against teams with a winning record.
Suggestion: Angels are worth a shot at these 'short' odds.
SP for Orioles, Alfredo Simon, is a lead suspect in the
fatal shooting of his cousin on Jan 1st in Dominican Republic.His hearing was suspended when prosecution witnesses
did not show.Hmmm.Am I the only one that finds this very
strange?Did Alfredo pay off the
witnesses to keep their lids shut, or are they already swimming with the fishes? So the Orioles have a potential 'murderer' on the mound today. (Of course nothing is proven and Simon claims it was an accident when he shot his gun that killed his cousin).
Either way, Santana is on the mound for the Angels. His ERA went from 4.89 in Apr, to 3.79 in May, to 3.48 in Jun, to 2.57 in Jul. He has a very solid 3.62 xFIP and a K/BB ratio of almost 3. Santana's road ERA is 4.53, much worse than his 3.39 home ERA. Should that be a concern? Well, when looking at advanced stats, his away xFIP of 3.58 is pretty much the same as his home xFIP of 3.64. His road BABIP of .336 (very unlucky) compared to his home BABIP of .263 (somewhat lucky) explains the variance in H/A ERA. I expect his away ERA to improve going forward. Santana hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in 6 straight starts and I expect him to have a good outing today.
A few concerns: Santana has an ERA of 5.84 against Baltimore and gave up 12 hits and 9 ER's in 3.7 innings to them in his lone start last year. Also, Angels flew cross-country after yesterday's game against the Rangers. Travel is not as big of a factor in baseball is it is in other sports but still something to consider. Baltimore were off yesterday but are 6-7 this year after a day off. They are 13-38 against teams with a winning record.
Suggestion: Angels are worth a shot at these 'short' odds.
One more factor I forgot to add. Santana has a 4.91 K/BB ratio versus righties compared to 2.15 against lefties. His xFIP against righties is 3.19 vs 4.00 against lefties. Baltimore is primarily a right-handed lineup.
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Angels @ Orioles +104 (O/U: 9)
SP for Orioles, Alfredo Simon, is a lead suspect in the
fatal shooting of his cousin on Jan 1st in Dominican Republic.His hearing was suspended when prosecution witnesses
did not show.Hmmm.Am I the only one that finds this very
strange?Did Alfredo pay off the
witnesses to keep their lids shut, or are they already swimming with the fishes? So the Orioles have a potential 'murderer' on the mound today. (Of course nothing is proven and Simon claims it was an accident when he shot his gun that killed his cousin).
Either way, Santana is on the mound for the Angels. His ERA went from 4.89 in Apr, to 3.79 in May, to 3.48 in Jun, to 2.57 in Jul. He has a very solid 3.62 xFIP and a K/BB ratio of almost 3. Santana's road ERA is 4.53, much worse than his 3.39 home ERA. Should that be a concern? Well, when looking at advanced stats, his away xFIP of 3.58 is pretty much the same as his home xFIP of 3.64. His road BABIP of .336 (very unlucky) compared to his home BABIP of .263 (somewhat lucky) explains the variance in H/A ERA. I expect his away ERA to improve going forward. Santana hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in 6 straight starts and I expect him to have a good outing today.
A few concerns: Santana has an ERA of 5.84 against Baltimore and gave up 12 hits and 9 ER's in 3.7 innings to them in his lone start last year. Also, Angels flew cross-country after yesterday's game against the Rangers. Travel is not as big of a factor in baseball is it is in other sports but still something to consider. Baltimore were off yesterday but are 6-7 this year after a day off. They are 13-38 against teams with a winning record.
Suggestion: Angels are worth a shot at these 'short' odds.
One more factor I forgot to add. Santana has a 4.91 K/BB ratio versus righties compared to 2.15 against lefties. His xFIP against righties is 3.19 vs 4.00 against lefties. Baltimore is primarily a right-handed lineup.
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GL bodio
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