Bodio's MLB Fri 06/03

haha...

Sure...

A couple of factors here.  Philly will have their full-starting lineup in this one as Shane Victorino is going to be activated today.  He's a very solid hitter and will definitely be a factor for the Phills' lineup.  Second of all, the difference in starting pitching is huge.  Hamels is top 8 in 3 key advanced statistics that I look for.  Karstens does have a very good xFIP (3.20) but his 5.5 tERA (one of the worst) and -1.07 E-F indicate that regression to the mean is in order.  I know Pirates have a better BP than Philly, but they've been overworked the last couple of days, while Philly's pen is rested.  Even so I expect Hamels to go 7/8 strong innings in this one as he's been an absolute stud this year, while Pirates have really struggled to score runs at home resulting in a 3.2 rpg there and a 9-14 home record.  

Lowe is coming off an 84 pitch outing so he should be well-rested for this one.  Plus, he is in a 'bounce-back' spot.  He's been excellent against the Mets in his last 3 starts with 5 ER"s in 18 innings pitched with 9K to 3 BB ratio.  Niese is coming off a 122 pitch outing, most in his career.  Look up his last couple of starts following games where he threw 115+ pitches.  Not very good.  Either way, all key 'advanced-stats' favor Lowe here, so he's clearly the better pitcher.  Now the 2nd huge advantage of the Braves is their BP, which is the BEST in the league, while Mets' are mediocre.  Throw in the fact that Mets' pen has really been used a lot the last couple of games, especially yesterday, and we have a situation where the starter is coming off a huge-pitch outing with a tired BP behind him.  Sure, the Braves aren't hitting the ball well and are missing some 'bats' (so are the Mets), but the 'factors' above clearly are to their advantage. I expect ATL  to win this one with superior pitching and just 'enough' hitting today.

I like Danny Duffy a lot and his #'s in the minors have been excellent.  Obviously coming over to the majors hasn't been as smooth as expected but there's signs for optimism.  Against the potent Rangers lineup he gave up 3 ER's in 6 innings with 4 K's and only 1 BB.  He issued the walk in the 7th inning, after which he was removed.  2 of the hits were solo-homers, his first 2 he gave up in 3 starts, but even so he looked very good.  Today he's facing a depleted Twins lineup (Kubel and Thome on DL yesterday), who have hit the 3rd lowest # of HR's this season.  Duffy has never faced Twins lineup before so he'll have an advantage there.  Opposite him is Pavano who has given up 8 ER's on 19 hits in his last 15 innings pitched (2 starts).  He's coming off a 114 pitch outing and will be facing a KC lineup that has already teed-off for 12 hits and 6 ER's in 5 innings earlier this year.  I expect Duffy to get his first career win tonight as KC offense should be very productive in this one.

I think they just saw your message and lowered the odds on the 'bombers' 

BOO!

Sure hope you're right buddy!  

Nice!  Hopefully we can add to your +EV today!  

I'd pass here.  My model has this one at 9.3. 

I feel that Arroyo will have a good game today so the question is will Cincy bats score enough runs for the OVER to hit?  Not so sure.  Make sure to check the wind and the temperature if you're going to play this one