Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
10 - 1 @ 91% for +9.61 Units
Fri, 04/08
Philadelphia Phillies -102
I'm going against the ROM (Reverse Odds Movement) in this one. I really don't see why so many people are backing the Braves in this spot. Is it because of the "they're DUE" factor? Is it because it's Atlanta's home-opener? Not sure, but what I do know is that I'm backing the better pitcher with a better offense behind him in this one.
Braves are 'ice-cold' at the plate. This offense is averaging 6.25 hpg and scoring 2.0 rpg in its last 4. Phillies, on the other hand, are on fire, averaging 13 hpg and 7.25 rpg in the same time span. They've scored 21 runs in the past 2 games and lead the majors with .353 BA. Clearly, advantage Philadelphia here.
In addition to hitting, Philly has the better pitcher on the mound. I don't really need to tell you that Cliff Lee had the 2nd best FIP last year (2.58) or 5th best xFIP (3.06) or 10.28 K/BB ratio or one of the highest E-F (+0.59). I'm sure you all already know the fact that he's a stud. Hudson had a career year last year. Coming back from injuries, he was spectacular for the Braves, but 'regression to the mean' is expected. Hudson relies on inducing ground-balls to get outs. He's not a strike-out pitcher, as his mediocre 5.47 K/9 ratio suggests. What is interesting is that his ERA was 2.83 last year but an FIP of 4.09 (#84). Wtih an E-F of -1.26, he is a prime candidate to major 'regression' this season. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 'rocked' tonight. Phillies bats are hot, and the current lineup is batting .270 with OBP of .350 off Hudson. Guys like Ibanez (.370 OBP), Ruiz (.348 OBP) and Howard (.460 OBP) have had tremendous success off him (the OBP numbers are against Hudson). OPS of .861 against him indicates that these guys have had 'power' success off him as well. At the same time, current Braves hitters average .213 BA, .260 OBP and .600 OPS off Lee. In addition these hitters have had a combined 47 AB's off him compared to 241 AB's Phillies batters have had against Hudson. Hmmm...
Phillies are rolling right now while the Braves have lost 3 in a row. It's not often that we'll see Lee at this 'cheap' of a price. Add in the fact that Phillies are 30-13 (70%) on the road when favored in the -100 to -125 range, and I love this play even more.
Good luck!
10 - 1 @ 91% for +9.61 Units
Fri, 04/08
Philadelphia Phillies -102
I'm going against the ROM (Reverse Odds Movement) in this one. I really don't see why so many people are backing the Braves in this spot. Is it because of the "they're DUE" factor? Is it because it's Atlanta's home-opener? Not sure, but what I do know is that I'm backing the better pitcher with a better offense behind him in this one.
Braves are 'ice-cold' at the plate. This offense is averaging 6.25 hpg and scoring 2.0 rpg in its last 4. Phillies, on the other hand, are on fire, averaging 13 hpg and 7.25 rpg in the same time span. They've scored 21 runs in the past 2 games and lead the majors with .353 BA. Clearly, advantage Philadelphia here.
In addition to hitting, Philly has the better pitcher on the mound. I don't really need to tell you that Cliff Lee had the 2nd best FIP last year (2.58) or 5th best xFIP (3.06) or 10.28 K/BB ratio or one of the highest E-F (+0.59). I'm sure you all already know the fact that he's a stud. Hudson had a career year last year. Coming back from injuries, he was spectacular for the Braves, but 'regression to the mean' is expected. Hudson relies on inducing ground-balls to get outs. He's not a strike-out pitcher, as his mediocre 5.47 K/9 ratio suggests. What is interesting is that his ERA was 2.83 last year but an FIP of 4.09 (#84). Wtih an E-F of -1.26, he is a prime candidate to major 'regression' this season. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 'rocked' tonight. Phillies bats are hot, and the current lineup is batting .270 with OBP of .350 off Hudson. Guys like Ibanez (.370 OBP), Ruiz (.348 OBP) and Howard (.460 OBP) have had tremendous success off him (the OBP numbers are against Hudson). OPS of .861 against him indicates that these guys have had 'power' success off him as well. At the same time, current Braves hitters average .213 BA, .260 OBP and .600 OPS off Lee. In addition these hitters have had a combined 47 AB's off him compared to 241 AB's Phillies batters have had against Hudson. Hmmm...
Phillies are rolling right now while the Braves have lost 3 in a row. It's not often that we'll see Lee at this 'cheap' of a price. Add in the fact that Phillies are 30-13 (70%) on the road when favored in the -100 to -125 range, and I love this play even more.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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