April Forecast

Put $200 in paypal and you take the Orioles under and I will take the over.

If I win you leave covers forever. If I lose I will leave forever.

Put your money where you mouth is. I am probably the knowledgeable person about the Orioles on this forum. IN 2009 I said in 3 years watchout they will be competitive and in the thick of things. I also siad they would lose 100 games in 2009.

I was 1 friggin year off in my prediction so take that and shove it up your behind.

Typo in my post JPero, I hate my I pad. It should say taking a stab at over 76.5 is not the worst play I have ever seen.

And for the 100th time did they do the best in extra inning games and 1 run games than any team in 100 years... YES

And thats because their biggest strength was their bullpen. It wasnt just a bullpen that was 3 deep it was a bullpen and sitll is the same bullpen that goes 6-7 quality pitchers deep. No other bullpen had that last year and thats why the Orioles excelled in those positions.

In those extra inning and 1 run games the Orioles had the better pitching at the end of the games and their strength of bullpen showed and exposed the weaknesses of their opponents by not having the bullpen depth and talent.

Its pretty much the same exact concept in basketball. IF a team is the best free throw shooting tema in the league they are going to win more games down the stretch and in OT if both team are shooting FT or if that particular team gets to the free throw line more often than their opponents.

THat is not luck that is playing to yoru strengths. Thats what the Orioles did last year and Buck even said so at the Fan Fest season ticket event last month. HE said all year all they tried to do was keep games close and get thier starters to go 6 innings so they could get their bullpen in because they knew they had the best bullpen and it would give the team a chance to win.

The overhaul and roster turnover throughout the first half of hte year set the Orioles roster by getting guys inot the game so they could see who was best suited for their particular roles. They went from -30 Runs in the first half (mostly bad defense and not a set rotation) and beingn  4 games over 500 to being a eam with a +50 run differential when they set their rotation and had players playing everyday taht played superior defense.

That is not luck. HTere is no luck in a 162 game season. You just cant accept the Orioles improved and became a quality team. They will most likely not win 93 games this year, as I have said for months now, but they will be over .500.

And if you had any real idea of Vegas you would understand the number they released for hte O's is NOT HOW they perceive they will perform. IT is how they believe the public sees them. They want 50/50 action and it proves my point from earlier in this thread.... The public (you are #1 prime example) are just going to view last season as a fluke becuase of the extra and 1 run games.

God forbid your west coast bias allows you to see that. YOu were wrong about the O's last year nad will be again this year.

Tigermike its easy for anyone to say anything. Come with facts, data, reasons behind yoru thought process.

If you cant come with any of that stuff other than just saying and regurgitating extra inning and 1 run games... then what you are saying has little merit and tends to show you have dont little to nothing in terms of actually looking inot your stance and backing it up.

He has yet to come with anything to refute any point I made. That is usually a sign of defeatism and just not wanting to admit it. I could make a 1000 character post for Key if he really wants of what he could say to go against what I said but why would I do his work for him. He claims to be the superior all knowing being on all things baseball on this forum.

I see him all the time giving packers and others garbage and always using the crutch of east coast bias.

He does know baseball but if you disagree with him he calls you names and tells you the stfu instead of providing stats, data and evidence that supports his view. It makes me wonder if he thinks for himself or just repeats things he reads from other outlets.

I use to respect Keyelement not sure where I stand about him at this point in time.

I mean for god sake in this thread he emphatically says the Yankees and Orioles wouldnt have had any playoff wins if they ahdn't played eachother.

Was he in a coma when the Orioles beat the Rangers cause he has yet to even admit that he mispoke in that instance. He also doesn't admit the Orioles were without their best hitter for the playoffs and last final weeks of the season because CC hit Markakis in the wrist.

WIth him in the lineup they easily win the Yankees series and then who knows what happens against the Tigers. The Orioles are the reason the Tigers had such an easy series. The Orioles ruined the Yankees starting rotation setup going into the tigers series and wore down the pitching because of hte extra inning games.

Key who else played in more 1 run games than the Orioles last year and who else won the same/more 1 run games?

Thank you. I think your immature ranting in four consecutive posts merely reinforces my position and opinion regarding you

Regarding an over/under bet on the Orioles, I never make total win bets at this point. I always make my predictions a day or two before the season starts, and depending on the line at that time. This is not an excuse, it is historical fact, you can look it up.

Regarding how Las Vegas sets numbers and manages action I am happy that you have been paying attention to my posts regarding that, you are making a little progress.

Now, your challenges and responses have become absolutely boring. Good bye.

answer my question stop side stepping....

I know about Vegas studying lines suck a d ick

didn't learn anything from you... You learned from me and just misspoke because you quote earlier was " Vegas agrees with me"... wrong Vegas agrees with me

Loser leave town match?

key won't do it he has a sandy vag

must be the Arizona desert

since key left with his tail between his legs I will answer the question for him..

there were 4 teams with more or same wins as Orioles in 1 run games. the Orioles played the 2nd least 1 run games in the league with 8 of those being extra inning games.

they Orioles played 18 extra inning games, most in the league, with the league average being 13 extra innings games per team.

the Orioles played less than half the amount of 1 run games than the team with the most.

what does this have to do with anything? everyone taking down the Orioles automatically brings up the 1 run and extra inning record with zero knowledge if how those records compare to the other teams.

the only thing anyone can say is the Orioles won't win at the same percentage if those games and I agree but that I'm no way means they can't replicate having the same wins in those situations. instead of winning at a .750 clip like that did they will prob regress to the .500-600 which would mean about a difference of 6-8 wins.

the pelts will most likely play in more 1 run games and thus win approximately the same amount of those games just at a lower clip than last year.

end if the fat it at most a 6-8 game difference which would make them a 85-87 win team

I see them as an 83-88 win team

I respectfully disagree with your statement. The 2 biggest hyped teams this season will be 2 west coast teams, the Dodgers & Angels. With the money they've spent, star players on the teams and powerful lineups...everybody will be on them.

Yes, your right, teams like the Yankees and Red Sox will always be a public favorite.....but with that said, it isnt just east coast bias when there's 2 teams out west with even more hype.

Jpero,

Bullpens are the most unpredictable aspect of baseball. They vary from year to year with inconsistent performances. To think a repeat from last year will happen is asking alot

"The Orioles are the reason the Tigers had such an easy series. The Orioles ruined the Yankees starting rotation setup"

That is a crazy statement. The Yankees actually had outstanding pitching in that series. If you remember, it was the Yankees offense that disappeared. So to say the Orioles had an impact my messing up the Yankee rotation couldnt be further from the truth.

And to throw in the Markakis injury is sour grapes. All teams had injuries

 

JoeKool: I agree the Dodgers and Angels will be over-hyped and probably heavy public favorites, but traditionally, and I expect it to continue this year, the East Coast gets a lot more media hype and television highlights. You couple that with the fact many East Coast viewers do not stay up late for the West Coast games, know and care little about them, and you have a betting public that tends to lay the juice with eastern teams while undervaluing the Central and West when in competition with them. That was the original point and since so much has been made of it I will track and publish the ROI of AL East and NL East versus Central and West competition.
Thanx for your input.
BOL

When I first started wagering on baseball I didn't know a lot of information. For example, the Mariners usually struggle at scoring runs. However, when they play at the Tigers they crush the ball it seems like. I see that sometimes with Padres offense when they play outside of their park as well. Sometimes, a team might not exactly bad at hitting just the way the park shapes up. Yankees sometimes struggle to runs when playing at teams such as the Mariners and A's. Why? Well, both those teams usually has good pitching...but when playing in a smaller ballpark and then going to a bigger one....I see why teams struggle now. It is more than just looking at a box score, etc.

Spartan you can check out park effects

Mariners and Padres are constantly towards the top of hte league with having the least offensively favorable stadiums.

Bmore is usually near the top for offensive ballparks. However, Bmore in the beginning of hte year isnt nearly the offensive ballpark it is in june, july, august with the high humidity.

Thing of note about Seattle is they are bringing in the fences this year which should help the offensive stats but could conversely hurt some pitchers.

Another thing to chekc when wagering is the bullpen situation because of previous nights. A pitcher might have pitched in back to back games and may not be available the following day. That could mean if the starting pitcher that game has trouble going deep into games the bullpen will be relied upon and lesser pitchers may get the call because of the workload of a reliever or 2 from the nights before.

CC intentionally hit Markakis and that hurt the Orioles from taking 1st and during the playoffs by not having their best hitter. Every team has injuries but if the Yankees lost Cano or the Tigers lost one of Prince or Miggy that would have an impact.

CC was forced to pitch 2 times vs the Orioles because it went 5 games and there were extra inning games that taxed the bullpen. That definitely had an impact when facing the tigers. CC was unable to pitch game 1 and had to wait to pitch til game 4.

With the MLB changing the playoff format to less days off between series that was absolutely HUGE. If hte O's dont take that series 5 the Tigers series could be different.

Yeah I was talking about 3-4 years ago about the hitting situation. However, I never really did thing about the bullpen tip there. Thanks jpero.

It goes a lot further than you may think. Would you believe the Jet Stream, geography and meteorology have a lot to do with it? Not only that but the old "cookie cutter" parks like Oakland are notoriously bad. Parks built in the 60's and 70's to accommodate baseball and football both did not work out well for either. Oakland in particular is a good (bad?) example. About 400 acres of foul ground results in a lot of foul pop outs that would be far back in the stands in other parks. Back then only Kansas City had the right idea, with two separate stadiums in the same complex, realizing that football and baseball fields do not mix well, nor are they good for view ability in either game. That has proven out as Kansas City is not and will not be building new stadiums for their teams. Kaufmann and Arrowhead are both still excellent facilities. You may also want to do some comparisons that do not just jump out at you. If you get away from overall offensive stats and take a look at road stats only you get a fairer comparison because any given team is not inflated or penalized due the effect of 81 home games in what may or may not be a hitters park. Further comparison of East Coast - West Coast only stats is even further enlightening. That is why teams like Seattle and San Diego don't look nearly as bad on eastern road swings as their home or overall stats would indicate. The same thing can happen to Eastern powers playing two or three series on the West Coast. I forget which thread it appears in but I pointed out to someone that the same two teams can consistently play 2-1 games on the West Coast and 9-8 games on the East Coast and nothing but the locale is any different.

All excellent points made Key. I agree with everything you said.

Could be the first year in a long time "undervalued' and "under the radar" can be used in the same sentence as "Boston Red Sox".

This team is way off the radar this year. They were terrible last season, gutted their roster, and did not bring in any mega free agents.

In terms of public opinion they are currently the 4th favorite in the AL East (perhaps the 1st time ever?) and are widely seen as a team that will fight with the O's for last place in the division. The fan base in Boston is very pessimistic right now. The fact the owner warned this week that the Red Sox sellout streak (lasting almost 10 years) at Fenway will surely end in April and possibly as soon as the 2nd game of the year says it all.

No big names, no real hype, but yet a lot of grinding, meat and potatoes type players on this team. Definitively not a public team to start the year but could be profitable.