Key Element knows all these things but he bets everyday on garbage teams.
There is only one rule you need to follow in baseball is to follow streaks meaning dont bet against them.
Also whoever said dont fall in love with one team. You are right if you are following the Astros but not if your are following Washington and the Pirates.
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Key Element knows all these things but he bets everyday on garbage teams.
There is only one rule you need to follow in baseball is to follow streaks meaning dont bet against them.
Also whoever said dont fall in love with one team. You are right if you are following the Astros but not if your are following Washington and the Pirates.
1. Always FADE PHILLIES & NYM for me they are disaster teams
2. Always bet the UNDER
3. Try to avoid picks over -150, there are better picks out there
AND...
4. NEVER PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT on ONE GAME
just ask tamlee who had $10 to win 700 and didnt hedge the last game yesterday and I dont mean this as a bash but because I know this is a mistake I make I will have a winning day going 4-2 but unfortunately have a negative return because I get over confident in one game instead
5. Aim for consistency
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1. Always FADE PHILLIES & NYM for me they are disaster teams
2. Always bet the UNDER
3. Try to avoid picks over -150, there are better picks out there
AND...
4. NEVER PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT on ONE GAME
just ask tamlee who had $10 to win 700 and didnt hedge the last game yesterday and I dont mean this as a bash but because I know this is a mistake I make I will have a winning day going 4-2 but unfortunately have a negative return because I get over confident in one game instead
I'm almost certain that in the history of baseball. More than 55% of the time. The team that wins game 1, also wins game 2. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am. I have watched a few double headers in my day on TV and they brought this stat up. I believe you that you have made money going with the other team. But overall, the sweep is more common.
Just ran 15 years of data...........................
If a home team is favored 2nd game of a dbl header they are a 58% play to win no matter if they won or lost the 1st game.
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Quote Originally Posted by lovethedough:
@tstove....About the double header theory.
I'm almost certain that in the history of baseball. More than 55% of the time. The team that wins game 1, also wins game 2. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am. I have watched a few double headers in my day on TV and they brought this stat up. I believe you that you have made money going with the other team. But overall, the sweep is more common.
Just ran 15 years of data...........................
If a home team is favored 2nd game of a dbl header they are a 58% play to win no matter if they won or lost the 1st game.
First of all, this is a great thread...enjoy reading everyone's views and this thread is interesting.
The rule about knowing when to bet, whether to bet early or way and watch the line movement is interesting. Sometimes you can catch a better price early, but I enjoy seeing the way things shake out. What do people think about this one?
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First of all, this is a great thread...enjoy reading everyone's views and this thread is interesting.
The rule about knowing when to bet, whether to bet early or way and watch the line movement is interesting. Sometimes you can catch a better price early, but I enjoy seeing the way things shake out. What do people think about this one?
Tampa Bay Under rule is very interesting too, I think they keep setting them at that high number due to who they are playing. That being said, last night Texas was said to have the lowest ERA in July...crazy I thought because I would never have guessed.
Philly is a team that continues to get horrible value when you bet them and they keep losing, yet people keep believing in some miracle run. Personally, I do not see it and think everytime they play...the other side will have solid value.
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Tampa Bay Under rule is very interesting too, I think they keep setting them at that high number due to who they are playing. That being said, last night Texas was said to have the lowest ERA in July...crazy I thought because I would never have guessed.
Philly is a team that continues to get horrible value when you bet them and they keep losing, yet people keep believing in some miracle run. Personally, I do not see it and think everytime they play...the other side will have solid value.
Some rules I've used the past 2 seasons to make some nice cash:
1) Never chase a victory by doubling your bet each time
2) If you lose early in the day, don't automatically add to your night game bets to make it up (exception is if you find a legitimate reason to do so).
3) This one is key and may sound weird: try to visualize the game play out. Once you look at all the stats/trends etc, can you find a likely potential scenario where your bet will lose? If yes, back off.
A perfect example was when Capuano faced the Bautista the other day. No stat out there (that I pay attention to) suggested the Mets win that game. So, I went large on the Dodgers.
4) Focus on betting only certain teams and avoiding other teams. I almost never bet on teams with shit offenses because the odds of them scoring few runs every game are high. My favourite teams to bet are teams like the Yankees, Jays, Cardinals, etc. as at any point they can get back into the game in one inning.
always do the #3 and #4
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Quote Originally Posted by spidermonkey224:
Some rules I've used the past 2 seasons to make some nice cash:
1) Never chase a victory by doubling your bet each time
2) If you lose early in the day, don't automatically add to your night game bets to make it up (exception is if you find a legitimate reason to do so).
3) This one is key and may sound weird: try to visualize the game play out. Once you look at all the stats/trends etc, can you find a likely potential scenario where your bet will lose? If yes, back off.
A perfect example was when Capuano faced the Bautista the other day. No stat out there (that I pay attention to) suggested the Mets win that game. So, I went large on the Dodgers.
4) Focus on betting only certain teams and avoiding other teams. I almost never bet on teams with shit offenses because the odds of them scoring few runs every game are high. My favourite teams to bet are teams like the Yankees, Jays, Cardinals, etc. as at any point they can get back into the game in one inning.
TSTOVE, HOW MUCH MONEY HAVE YOU LOST THE PAST 2 YEARS BETTING ON A DOUBLEHEADER SPLIT? YOUR 77% WIN PERCENTAGE IS ANTIQUATED AT BEST. YOU ARE GETTING BEAT DOWN LIKE PEE WEE HERMAN IN A BARE KNUCKLE FIST FIGHT AGAINST MIKE TYSON IN HIS PRIME AT LEAST FOR THE LAST 2 YEARS.
2012 5-5 50%
2011 15-18 45.4%
A FAR CRY FROM 77% IM SURE IF I CHECK BACK FARTHER IT WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR 77% I THINK JUST ANOTHER HANDICAPPING MYTH. BUT I HAVE ONLY BEEN DOING THIS FOR 28 YEARS COULD BE WRONG.
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TSTOVE, HOW MUCH MONEY HAVE YOU LOST THE PAST 2 YEARS BETTING ON A DOUBLEHEADER SPLIT? YOUR 77% WIN PERCENTAGE IS ANTIQUATED AT BEST. YOU ARE GETTING BEAT DOWN LIKE PEE WEE HERMAN IN A BARE KNUCKLE FIST FIGHT AGAINST MIKE TYSON IN HIS PRIME AT LEAST FOR THE LAST 2 YEARS.
2012 5-5 50%
2011 15-18 45.4%
A FAR CRY FROM 77% IM SURE IF I CHECK BACK FARTHER IT WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR 77% I THINK JUST ANOTHER HANDICAPPING MYTH. BUT I HAVE ONLY BEEN DOING THIS FOR 28 YEARS COULD BE WRONG.
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