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8/17 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #26
 
Prospect
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Posted: #27
New fan! Thanks
 
Prospect
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Posted: #28
Thanks for the info.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by roondog248:

On any given day, How far behind are your models on current stats?

I run updates on my pitching database every 4-5 days so I try to have every start in there.. I was a day late on my updates yesterday a few days ago so I missed a start in the data, but that doesn't happen often.  The team stats, bullpen, records, (basically everything but the starting pitching data) are all current except for the previous days action.  These sheets were run at 8/16/12 - 11 PM EST.  The stats include the data on all games up to 8/15/12.  The stat websites I pull from typically update around 4 AM EST the day after the games are played.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by GiLmo574:



I'll answer for him.


NO.    



Keep it all about Silly in Silly's thread on Silly's time.    

It's quite alright Uncle Gil.  I'm in no position to take ownership of the plays I make.  I take ownership of my breakdown sheets, the research I do, and the write-ups I make.  Beyond that, if you like a pick that I'm on, it's as much yours as it is mine.  It's simply one option among many on the gambling card.  I only ask that credit is given when credit is due - like if you were to copy and paste a write-up, or use the projection or power ranking data from my model.  That stuff is proprietary.

 
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Posted: #31
Si1ly- your the man... Card looks tasty!
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

Detroit with a 73.7% chance to win and Arizona with a 77.2% chance to win means both will win 57.1% of the time. This translates to a true line on the parlay of -133. Since I'm getting +110 on the parlay, I see 43 cents of value - right in my butter zone.

You're probably a better math whiz than me. It just seems odd that parlaying a  Detroit team @ the correct odds creates more value than Arizona at -177.

Also, what do you think of Arizona -2.5? Any value there?

Either way, great f**kin job so far!  This is always the first thread I look for in MLB! 


It doesn't create "more value", but it creates value that I'm "more comfortable" with.  I'm only risking 1 unit instead of 1.75 and I'm still getting enough value to justify the play mathematically.  In fact, I'm saving $129 off the projected true line.  That's a great deal on a $300 dollar investment.
 
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Posted: #33
Have to go with cardinals, thinking about dbacks too, thanks for the sheets.
 
Captain
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Posted: #34
zona looks good tonight but its now -220
 
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Posted: #35
tailing you on all 3....gl  
 
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Posted: #37
GL you silly bast*rd already on Dbacks RL, like the play a lot.
 
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Posted: #38
Would you still play Arizona -1 at -160? I guess lots of pounding on Arizona already. 
 
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Posted: #39
Cleveland Looks like a play today 51% Dog Value  Play
 
Legend
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Posted: #40
gl
 
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Posted: #41

Thanks for the info.  

How can Felix Hernandez not make the Top 30 pitchers of the past 30 days?

 
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Posted: #42

silly

just curious, how can u possibly have JA HAPP in the top 30 for the last month and cole hamels not in the top 30

happ has made just 2 starts in the last month and has given up 8 earned runs in 10 innings pitched...

hamels has picthed back to back complete game shutouts, before that he had given up 11 earned runs in his previous 4 starts, 27 innings pitched

would like to know where some of your numbers come from because some of them look completely outrageous

 
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Posted: #43

Thanks for the break down sheets..

 
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Posted: #44
Following your parlay play!! Let's get that skrill!
 
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Posted: #45
I cannot find the value on Detroit. Dbacks RL or -1 looks good.
 
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Posted: #46
si1ly one of the best cappers on covers
 
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Posted: #47

Thanks for the breakdowns.

Any thoughts on the Dodogers and Twins first 5?

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by blizair:


where are u getting that line?

Where was Dbacks -1 -135 available?
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Messy:

Thanks for the info.  

How can Felix Hernandez not make the Top 30 pitchers of the past 30 days?



That's the one thing I've openly asked Si1ly about.  I pointed out the disparity between Nova and Buchholz yesterday (which the results proved) and I have to agree with you here.  There's absolutely no reason for Felix not to be in the top 30 pitchers of the past 30 days.  I know he incorporates a lot of advanced metrics into the equation but maybe the formula could use a bit of tweaking.
 
 
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Posted: #50
great shit as always Si1ly...bol
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