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Lately, I've noted almost exclusively pitchers who have been "lucky"--that is, pitchers whose base skills are significantly lower than their ERA and W-L record, which, as I've noted, are basically worthless surface stats in the absence of a study of the underlying skills.
Today I look at the reverse: An "unlucky" pitcher--i.e., one whose skills are clearly superior to his surface stats.
AJ Burnett (when healthy) has consistently been a K pitcher; his strikeout rate this year is a typical (for him) 9/9. Over the last month, it's been 11/9, yet his ERA during that same span is a whopping 5.28 (4.90 on the year). A closer look at his stats explains why: Over the last month, his hit% is 39 and his strand rate is 64%.
The hit rate--for all pitchers--is a historical constant at 30%; the strand% varies more, but is usually around 72%. Look at it this way: At least 9 batters facing Burnett each game strike out and therefore do not put the ball in play. Those making contact have a full 39% of the balls finding holes for hits, and of those who end up on base, a hefty 36% score. Is it because Burnett's giving up a lot of homers? No. His HR/9 rate is a measly 0.5/9 so far. Does Burnett just walk a lot of batters? Not relative to his K rate, no. Fact is, Burnett's expected ERA (xERA) is 3.57.
In short, Burnett's due for a correction in his hit and strand rates. Again, rarely does this occur in a single game; rather, it occurs--though rarely constantly--over the course of several starts.
So why pick this particular game? Well, statistical normalization has to begin somewhere and where better than in an interleague game whose batters have seen nothing or little of Burnett recently. Plus, the lately light-hitting Jays are facing David Bush, whose expected ERA is actually higher than his ERA. One reason for that is his hit rate of just 27%.
Granted, Toronto at this writing is the favorite, but a bare one, at just -114. I expect a solid performance--and a W--from Burnett today.
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