Long time since I popped up in one of your threads. I still look for you everyday, but like you mentioned above, your threads are so littered with morons - it's gotten out of hand. But, hey - when you pick em like Bodio - you're gonna have a following.... it's just too bad the followers are so damn annoying.
Keep picking those winners B! And thanks for all the hard work!!
Kaufee
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Quote Originally Posted by Kaufee:
Hey Bodio,
Long time since I popped up in one of your threads. I still look for you everyday, but like you mentioned above, your threads are so littered with morons - it's gotten out of hand. But, hey - when you pick em like Bodio - you're gonna have a following.... it's just too bad the followers are so damn annoying.
Keep picking those winners B! And thanks for all the hard work!!
Looks like A's ml might be the play as well if that trend holds true
I was thinking the same thing at first, but it's not consistent enough. By the way, the trend is fairly weak, as there are a ton of other factors in those games that I didn't research properly. That trends is just a 'supplemental' factor and not a main one. The other ones are more critical IMO
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Quote Originally Posted by LawsonJames:
Looks like A's ml might be the play as well if that trend holds true
I was thinking the same thing at first, but it's not consistent enough. By the way, the trend is fairly weak, as there are a ton of other factors in those games that I didn't research properly. That trends is just a 'supplemental' factor and not a main one. The other ones are more critical IMO
Good luck brutha!,Your first thread was polluted with some forumers.
hehe...sometimes people just need to let some 'aggression' out. I understand that and actually welcome it, if it helps anyone (directed at me and only me of course). No biggie, but I figured it would take someone forever to search through all the pages just to find a few additional plays.
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Quote Originally Posted by Fortmax:
Good luck brutha!,Your first thread was polluted with some forumers.
hehe...sometimes people just need to let some 'aggression' out. I understand that and actually welcome it, if it helps anyone (directed at me and only me of course). No biggie, but I figured it would take someone forever to search through all the pages just to find a few additional plays.
Bodio - will send you another PM or email re
what we were talking about before (have some follow up stuff). Just been lazy -
but will get around to it.
Re: Edwin Jackson trend - wouldn't the right
measure to be look at the runs opposing teams had - as a few of those high
scores were due to his team bats (which should "in theory" have no correlation
to Jackson's previous pitch count).
Another potential way to play over is bet
1/2 units on both team totals - as most sites have OAK -110 for 3.5 and CHI -125
for 3.5. You push (with just slightly smaller juice) in a 4-3, 4-2, etc game.
Just surprised the team totals at 3.5 and not 4.
I have -108 and -123 on best lines for team
total overs...
You are 100% right. The right way would be to look up his ER's, hits allowed, K to BB ratio in those games, etc. I just didn't have time to do it. I know this is a very 'weak' trend and the major factors for this play were described above...Interesting way to look at it. What if the final score is 6-3? You push (lose juice) when the wager would have won. Or 5-3...you push (lose juice) when the wager would have pushed....If you have a database that spans 3+ years, you can prob figure out what the chances of something like this happens.
We need to start a database like this for sure! Any database geniuses out there?
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Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:
Bodio - will send you another PM or email re
what we were talking about before (have some follow up stuff). Just been lazy -
but will get around to it.
Re: Edwin Jackson trend - wouldn't the right
measure to be look at the runs opposing teams had - as a few of those high
scores were due to his team bats (which should "in theory" have no correlation
to Jackson's previous pitch count).
Another potential way to play over is bet
1/2 units on both team totals - as most sites have OAK -110 for 3.5 and CHI -125
for 3.5. You push (with just slightly smaller juice) in a 4-3, 4-2, etc game.
Just surprised the team totals at 3.5 and not 4.
I have -108 and -123 on best lines for team
total overs...
You are 100% right. The right way would be to look up his ER's, hits allowed, K to BB ratio in those games, etc. I just didn't have time to do it. I know this is a very 'weak' trend and the major factors for this play were described above...Interesting way to look at it. What if the final score is 6-3? You push (lose juice) when the wager would have won. Or 5-3...you push (lose juice) when the wager would have pushed....If you have a database that spans 3+ years, you can prob figure out what the chances of something like this happens.
We need to start a database like this for sure! Any database geniuses out there?
asked this in other thread but its gone to hell so i'll ask in this one:
do you flat bet each game bodio? or am i just not seeing how many units per game u are betting?
Yes, I flat bet every play. Set my Unit amount proportionate to my BR at the start of Baseball playoffs last year. After the Baseball season, will re-evaluate that...
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Quote Originally Posted by canesfan11:
asked this in other thread but its gone to hell so i'll ask in this one:
do you flat bet each game bodio? or am i just not seeing how many units per game u are betting?
Yes, I flat bet every play. Set my Unit amount proportionate to my BR at the start of Baseball playoffs last year. After the Baseball season, will re-evaluate that...
yes he flat bets every game... personally i would choose a percentage of your starting roll for the day( between 2 and 4% )...and bet that on each play...so you lay bigger bets after a winning day...and smaller ones after a losing day
Interesting...how has it been working out for you? Have you compared your YTD profit with a potential profit had you flat bet every day?
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Quote Originally Posted by papagunnz:
yes he flat bets every game... personally i would choose a percentage of your starting roll for the day( between 2 and 4% )...and bet that on each play...so you lay bigger bets after a winning day...and smaller ones after a losing day
Interesting...how has it been working out for you? Have you compared your YTD profit with a potential profit had you flat bet every day?
and sorry for that display in your other thread bodio....i just love proving morons wrong thats all lol
No problem. I'm not really sure what you're referring to since when I went to the thread after the Rangers game and saw there were 6+ pages of responses, I knew it was best to start a new one :)
Anything interesting in there or is it better not to waste my time?
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Quote Originally Posted by papagunnz:
and sorry for that display in your other thread bodio....i just love proving morons wrong thats all lol
No problem. I'm not really sure what you're referring to since when I went to the thread after the Rangers game and saw there were 6+ pages of responses, I knew it was best to start a new one :)
Anything interesting in there or is it better not to waste my time?
Long time since I popped up in one of your threads. I still look for you everyday, but like you mentioned above, your threads are so littered with morons - it's gotten out of hand. But, hey - when you pick em like Bodio - you're gonna have a following.... it's just too bad the followers are so damn annoying.
Keep picking those winners B! And thanks for all the hard work!!
Kaufee
Hey K,
How have you been! Thanks for the well wishes buddy. GL to you as well!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Kaufee:
Hey Bodio,
Long time since I popped up in one of your threads. I still look for you everyday, but like you mentioned above, your threads are so littered with morons - it's gotten out of hand. But, hey - when you pick em like Bodio - you're gonna have a following.... it's just too bad the followers are so damn annoying.
Keep picking those winners B! And thanks for all the hard work!!
Kaufee
Hey K,
How have you been! Thanks for the well wishes buddy. GL to you as well!
No problem. I'm not really sure what you're referring to since when I went to the thread after the Rangers game and saw there were 6+ pages of responses, I knew it was best to start a new one :)
Anything interesting in there or is it better not to waste my time?
it was pretty much some jackass talkin about how they fix games on a reg basis to cheat people out of money...he gave examples like cal ripken winning the home run durby..and neil rackers missing that field goal lololol but i just had to say something when he made this comment....
Doc Rivers probably put 1 million on the Wizards +6.5, then said "I'm gonna rest my starters", so the line goes to Celtics -1 in like 10 mins. big payday for Mr. Rivers
now thats just silly stupid lol to make a ridiculous comment like that...i mean come on..use your damn brain will ya, it just makes you look stupid when you say shit like that lol
but yeah after about 10 or 15 mins of me smashing him he admitted defeat by saying i have a man crush on phily ivey (avatar) and iam gay lol so i guess that makes you gay with psycho happy faces lmfaoooo
but yeah anyway about your comment on flat betting..iam not sure cuz i havent back tested it yet...but my theory (and others too) is by betting a fixed percent based on your starting roll for the day...when your on a winning streak you capitalize on it...and when you hit a dry spell minimize your losses...now of course your percentage is based on the how good you are...so if your ok then you go lower like 2% per play..but if your a bodio then you go 10% lmfao...JK but based on your strike rate i run your picks at 4% per play....
what you've done for me so far... NBA 23-15 (60.5%) MLB 9-4 (69.2%) TOTAL 37-23 (61.6%)
0
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
No problem. I'm not really sure what you're referring to since when I went to the thread after the Rangers game and saw there were 6+ pages of responses, I knew it was best to start a new one :)
Anything interesting in there or is it better not to waste my time?
it was pretty much some jackass talkin about how they fix games on a reg basis to cheat people out of money...he gave examples like cal ripken winning the home run durby..and neil rackers missing that field goal lololol but i just had to say something when he made this comment....
Doc Rivers probably put 1 million on the Wizards +6.5, then said "I'm gonna rest my starters", so the line goes to Celtics -1 in like 10 mins. big payday for Mr. Rivers
now thats just silly stupid lol to make a ridiculous comment like that...i mean come on..use your damn brain will ya, it just makes you look stupid when you say shit like that lol
but yeah after about 10 or 15 mins of me smashing him he admitted defeat by saying i have a man crush on phily ivey (avatar) and iam gay lol so i guess that makes you gay with psycho happy faces lmfaoooo
but yeah anyway about your comment on flat betting..iam not sure cuz i havent back tested it yet...but my theory (and others too) is by betting a fixed percent based on your starting roll for the day...when your on a winning streak you capitalize on it...and when you hit a dry spell minimize your losses...now of course your percentage is based on the how good you are...so if your ok then you go lower like 2% per play..but if your a bodio then you go 10% lmfao...JK but based on your strike rate i run your picks at 4% per play....
what you've done for me so far... NBA 23-15 (60.5%) MLB 9-4 (69.2%) TOTAL 37-23 (61.6%)
Hey bodio, i believe this is the first time ive posted in one of your threads, but i just wanted to say nice work so far, you really got your shit organized
BOL 2 U for tonight and in the future
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Hey bodio, i believe this is the first time ive posted in one of your threads, but i just wanted to say nice work so far, you really got your shit organized
Cahill is a prime candidate for 'regression' this year, as he had the luckiest BABIP of .236 in 2010 and the 5th highest E-F to the negative of -1.21 (ERA of 2.97 but FIP of 4.19). That being said he has had success against the Sox in the past, with a 3.34 EAR in his 5 starts against them. This is a 'slightly' different lineup though. In 7 games against righty starters this year, White Sox are averaging 6.7 rpg and .350 OBP with 9 HR's. In addition, Adam Dunn is expected to start today after recovering from an apendectomy. Factor in that Cahill got a bit contract extension on Monday, and I expect him to give up a few runs in this one.
Edwin Jackson has had a spectacular start to his season so far but consistency has always been an issue with him. What else is interesting is that the current Athletics lineup is averaging .337 off him with an OBP of .400 and OPS close to .900. Now that's all good, but this is not why I'm making this OVER play tonight.
The real reason for this play is an interesting trend from 2010 in games involving Edwin Jackson. In games following an outing where he threw 110+ pitches, Jackson's games have averaged 10.78 runs per game. Now, I know there are a ton of other factors involed in those games, but it's still an interesting trend. Here's the breakdown:
#1: L 8-2 (10) #2: W 5-4 (9) #3: W 8-0 (8) #4: L 7-4 (11) #5: W 12-5 (17) #6: W 6-5 (11) #7: L 7-5 (12) #8: W 8-5 (13) #9: W 5-1 (6)
There were 9 such occurences last year and if we use 8 as an O/U, we would have gone 7-1-1. Well, Jackson threw 119 pitches in his last start. This trend is officially in play.
what a call!!!
almost 'stress free' bet of the year
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
#2: OVER 8 OAK/CHW (+107)
Cahill is a prime candidate for 'regression' this year, as he had the luckiest BABIP of .236 in 2010 and the 5th highest E-F to the negative of -1.21 (ERA of 2.97 but FIP of 4.19). That being said he has had success against the Sox in the past, with a 3.34 EAR in his 5 starts against them. This is a 'slightly' different lineup though. In 7 games against righty starters this year, White Sox are averaging 6.7 rpg and .350 OBP with 9 HR's. In addition, Adam Dunn is expected to start today after recovering from an apendectomy. Factor in that Cahill got a bit contract extension on Monday, and I expect him to give up a few runs in this one.
Edwin Jackson has had a spectacular start to his season so far but consistency has always been an issue with him. What else is interesting is that the current Athletics lineup is averaging .337 off him with an OBP of .400 and OPS close to .900. Now that's all good, but this is not why I'm making this OVER play tonight.
The real reason for this play is an interesting trend from 2010 in games involving Edwin Jackson. In games following an outing where he threw 110+ pitches, Jackson's games have averaged 10.78 runs per game. Now, I know there are a ton of other factors involed in those games, but it's still an interesting trend. Here's the breakdown:
#1: L 8-2 (10) #2: W 5-4 (9) #3: W 8-0 (8) #4: L 7-4 (11) #5: W 12-5 (17) #6: W 6-5 (11) #7: L 7-5 (12) #8: W 8-5 (13) #9: W 5-1 (6)
There were 9 such occurences last year and if we use 8 as an O/U, we would have gone 7-1-1. Well, Jackson threw 119 pitches in his last start. This trend is officially in play.
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The man, the myth, the legend Bodio!
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