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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    1st Inning Yes/No, Over/Under 0.5

    123 Next Last»
    t6rider
    WISEGUY36
    smacksmiter
    OlDirtyBaztid
    arrgy
    ...
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    123 Next Last»
     
    t6rider
    t6rider
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 12:36 PM ET #1

    This will fall on deaf ears with most in here but betting 1st Inning Yes/No or some books call it over/under 0.5 is the best bet in baseball and it’s not even close. You have much more control and information then waiting on the million random events that can and will happen over the course of 9 innings. 

    You have access to the top 1-5 hitters in the lineup. The batter vs pitcher history. And most important it’s not hard to research the starting pitchers 1st inning form and stats. I’ve been tracking all year. I know Key Element will call it a “prop”. Sure but I can find 12-15 cent lines. Not always 20 cent but I don’t know too many professional guy shows in here where that really should matter. 

    The one thing I can tell you is you can call them a prop or whatever. But the first inning price is created off of the full game total. It has nothing to do with how pitchers perform in the 1st inning. The higher the game total. The higher the price on the No. And vice versa for the lower the game total. Coors Field and Chase Field are the #1 and #2 home fields in producing no first inning runs yet always have the highest full game totals giving us huge plus prices on the no everyday. 
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    This will fall on deaf ears with most in here but betting 1st Inning Yes/No or some books call it over/under 0.5 is the best bet in baseball and it’s not even close. You have much more control and information then waiting on the million random events that can and will happen over the course of 9 innings. 

    You have access to the top 1-5 hitters in the lineup. The batter vs pitcher history. And most important it’s not hard to research the starting pitchers 1st inning form and stats. I’ve been tracking all year. I know Key Element will call it a “prop”. Sure but I can find 12-15 cent lines. Not always 20 cent but I don’t know too many professional guy shows in here where that really should matter. 

    The one thing I can tell you is you can call them a prop or whatever. But the first inning price is created off of the full game total. It has nothing to do with how pitchers perform in the 1st inning. The higher the game total. The higher the price on the No. And vice versa for the lower the game total. Coors Field and Chase Field are the #1 and #2 home fields in producing no first inning runs yet always have the highest full game totals giving us huge plus prices on the no everyday. 
     
    t6rider
    t6rider
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 12:41 PM ET #2


                Y-N (Season)
    Suarez 0-2
    Morton 3-11

    Nelson 1-0
    Bumgarner 5-9

    Sale 2-12
    Bundy 6-7

    Clarke 4-2
    Strasburg 3-11

    Richard 1-3
    Valdez 0-1

    Agrazal
    Lopez 3-10

    Bieber 4-10
    Soto 2-2

    Minor 3-11
    Roark 4-9

    Wacha 5-5
    Syndergaard 4-10

    Sparkman 1-3
    Odorizzi 3-10

    Green 1-3
    Lopez 5-9

    Nola 4-10
    Newcomb 0-3

    Lauer 2-11
    Marquez 2-13

    Bautista 0-1
    Montas 1-13

    Darvish 5-9
    Buehler 1-12
    Reply

                Y-N (Season)
    Suarez 0-2
    Morton 3-11

    Nelson 1-0
    Bumgarner 5-9

    Sale 2-12
    Bundy 6-7

    Clarke 4-2
    Strasburg 3-11

    Richard 1-3
    Valdez 0-1

    Agrazal
    Lopez 3-10

    Bieber 4-10
    Soto 2-2

    Minor 3-11
    Roark 4-9

    Wacha 5-5
    Syndergaard 4-10

    Sparkman 1-3
    Odorizzi 3-10

    Green 1-3
    Lopez 5-9

    Nola 4-10
    Newcomb 0-3

    Lauer 2-11
    Marquez 2-13

    Bautista 0-1
    Montas 1-13

    Darvish 5-9
    Buehler 1-12
     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 12:45 PM ET #3

    Very Interesting . Thanks for posting  
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
    Reply
    Very Interesting . Thanks for posting  
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 12:50 PM ET #4

    So your plays out of that list would be?.....

    SD/Colorado
    Philly/Atlanta
    TX/Cincy

    PM for the skinny on the down low
    Reply
    So your plays out of that list would be?.....

    SD/Colorado
    Philly/Atlanta
    TX/Cincy

     
    t6rider
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 12:57 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    So your plays out of that list would be?.....

    SD/Colorado
    Philly/Atlanta
    TX/Cincy




    I would not play anything until I saw the lineups and batter vs pitcher history, but yes those three games are a good starting point.


    https://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/dailyhit.pl?date=&xyear=0&pa=1&showdfs=&sort=avg&r40=0&scsv=0


    https://www.baseballpress.com/Lineups
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    So your plays out of that list would be?.....

    SD/Colorado
    Philly/Atlanta
    TX/Cincy




    I would not play anything until I saw the lineups and batter vs pitcher history, but yes those three games are a good starting point.


    https://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/dailyhit.pl?date=&xyear=0&pa=1&showdfs=&sort=avg&r40=0&scsv=0


    https://www.baseballpress.com/Lineups
     
    OlDirtyBaztid
    OlDirtyBaztid
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 12:59 PM ET #6

    Good info. Thanks for sharing. FWIW, I always make sure to check out what you and dogbite share
    No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
    Reply
    Good info. Thanks for sharing. FWIW, I always make sure to check out what you and dogbite share
     
    t6rider
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 1:00 PM ET #7

    I don't really put much stock into the full season numbers for the pitchers as much anymore because for example Roark is starting to regress and Strasburg. I like to look at last 3, last 5 then compare to full season as well. I just posted last 5 and the freaking thing got deleted and I'm too lazy to do it again.
    Reply
    I don't really put much stock into the full season numbers for the pitchers as much anymore because for example Roark is starting to regress and Strasburg. I like to look at last 3, last 5 then compare to full season as well. I just posted last 5 and the freaking thing got deleted and I'm too lazy to do it again.
     
    t6rider
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 1:05 PM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by OlDirtyBaztid:

    Good info. Thanks for sharing. FWIW, I always make sure to check out what you and dogbite share





    Thank you. I thought of this before the season started. How many times do you research a game, get it completely wrong and win? Or completely right and lose? That goes for F5, full game, etc. Happens everyday in this sport. I thought this would be easier to predict and how awesome it would be to win or lose your bet in under 15 minutes, then sweat out 3 hours of bullpens and dropped pop ups and managerial decisions.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by OlDirtyBaztid:

    Good info. Thanks for sharing. FWIW, I always make sure to check out what you and dogbite share





    Thank you. I thought of this before the season started. How many times do you research a game, get it completely wrong and win? Or completely right and lose? That goes for F5, full game, etc. Happens everyday in this sport. I thought this would be easier to predict and how awesome it would be to win or lose your bet in under 15 minutes, then sweat out 3 hours of bullpens and dropped pop ups and managerial decisions.
     
    arrgy
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 1:09 PM ET #9

    I love the first inning bet, have been using it for years to some success.

    This year has been unusual. Of the top 5 scoring teams in the first inning, two teams (Baltimore #3 and Cinncy #2) are in last place, the Angels #4 are in next to last place, and the Mets #5 are below .500. Also, only the Angels and Cinncy are in the top 5 in NOT giving up runs in the first, and the Mets and Baltimore are in the bottom 5 in giving up runs in the first,  which shows what the pitching is like.

     

     

    Reply

    I love the first inning bet, have been using it for years to some success.

    This year has been unusual. Of the top 5 scoring teams in the first inning, two teams (Baltimore #3 and Cinncy #2) are in last place, the Angels #4 are in next to last place, and the Mets #5 are below .500. Also, only the Angels and Cinncy are in the top 5 in NOT giving up runs in the first, and the Mets and Baltimore are in the bottom 5 in giving up runs in the first,  which shows what the pitching is like.

     

     

     
    FayGer
    FayGer
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 1:09 PM ET #10

    thanks for this post! Love informational post like these and different angels!

     

    this season i've been getting burned with UMP's lol like A.Johnson he was 10-1 for Home teams . and then i bet it he became 10-2 and last night he had a game i bet it again he became 10-3 LOL ! i love these numbers but sometimes i get burned or to late to the action just like Cinci game today they've been under 11 games in a row. i bet if i play the under it'll go over LOL! 

    LETS GET MONEY!
    Reply

    thanks for this post! Love informational post like these and different angels!

     

    this season i've been getting burned with UMP's lol like A.Johnson he was 10-1 for Home teams . and then i bet it he became 10-2 and last night he had a game i bet it again he became 10-3 LOL ! i love these numbers but sometimes i get burned or to late to the action just like Cinci game today they've been under 11 games in a row. i bet if i play the under it'll go over LOL! 

     
    gutinstinctus
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 1:13 PM ET #11

    You are right. 55% of my pregame bets are 1st inning bets. 30% 1st half and probably only 15% full game. The reason is that I still do not have a solid model to handicap bullpens. 

    There is a downside to 1st innings though... the juice is wayyy higher. 

    Reply

    You are right. 55% of my pregame bets are 1st inning bets. 30% 1st half and probably only 15% full game. The reason is that I still do not have a solid model to handicap bullpens. 

    There is a downside to 1st innings though... the juice is wayyy higher. 

     
    t6rider
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 1:16 PM ET #12

    Top 5 1st Inning Score percentage Home:

    Dodgers 44%
    Orioles 42%
    Phillies 41%
    Rockies 40%
    Brewers 37%

    Top 5 1st Inning Score percentage Road:

    Rays 49%
    Astros 41%
    Brewers 38%
    Nationals 38%
    Padres 37%
    Reply
    Top 5 1st Inning Score percentage Home:

    Dodgers 44%
    Orioles 42%
    Phillies 41%
    Rockies 40%
    Brewers 37%

    Top 5 1st Inning Score percentage Road:

    Rays 49%
    Astros 41%
    Brewers 38%
    Nationals 38%
    Padres 37%
     
    t6rider
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 1:20 PM ET #13

    Top 5 1st Inning Score percentage allowed Home:

    Twins 12%
    Angels 14%
    Marlins 17%
    Mets 18%
    Rockies 20%


    Top 5 1st Inning Score percentage allowed Road:

    Padres 12%
    Phillies 16%
    Rays 21%
    Tigers 21%
    Red Sox 22%
    Reply
    Top 5 1st Inning Score percentage allowed Home:

    Twins 12%
    Angels 14%
    Marlins 17%
    Mets 18%
    Rockies 20%


    Top 5 1st Inning Score percentage allowed Road:

    Padres 12%
    Phillies 16%
    Rays 21%
    Tigers 21%
    Red Sox 22%
     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 1:24 PM ET #14

    Nice work t6

    Hope you profit 
    Reply
    Nice work t6

    Hope you profit 
     
    t6rider
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 1:26 PM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Nice work t6

    Hope you profit 




    Thanks man always love reading your info.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Nice work t6

    Hope you profit 




    Thanks man always love reading your info.
     
    dogball
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 1:40 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    So your plays out of that list would be?.....SD/ColoradoPhilly/AtlantaTX/Cincy

    over or under 

    2025 Circa Grandissomo Champion, Circa Survivor 2024 Top 50
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    So your plays out of that list would be?.....SD/ColoradoPhilly/AtlantaTX/Cincy

    over or under 

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 7:26 PM ET #17

    Well , I just cashed on my first , first inning yes/no wager on the
    Cards / Mets game . I kinda like this " let's get to it action."

    Thanks for sharing , I hope this becomes part of regular discussion
    on the forum.

    Mahalos        
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
    Reply
    Well , I just cashed on my first , first inning yes/no wager on the
    Cards / Mets game . I kinda like this " let's get to it action."

    Thanks for sharing , I hope this becomes part of regular discussion
    on the forum.

    Mahalos        
     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 7:38 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Well , I just cashed on my first , first inning yes/no wager on the
    Cards / Mets game . I kinda like this " let's get to it action."

    Thanks for sharing , I hope this becomes part of regular discussion
    on the forum.

    Mahalos        





    I sure like it a lot better than Cards  1st 5        
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Well , I just cashed on my first , first inning yes/no wager on the
    Cards / Mets game . I kinda like this " let's get to it action."

    Thanks for sharing , I hope this becomes part of regular discussion
    on the forum.

    Mahalos        





    I sure like it a lot better than Cards  1st 5        
     
    brownidentity
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 7:45 PM ET #19

    Great thread! I just cashed no run bet in the Phillies-Braves Game. Next up Padres-Rockies 

    Reply

    Great thread! I just cashed no run bet in the Phillies-Braves Game. Next up Padres-Rockies 

     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 7:47 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by dogball:

    over or under 


    Those would have been "unders" or "no score" in the 1st inning...just based on what he presented...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by dogball:

    over or under 


    Those would have been "unders" or "no score" in the 1st inning...just based on what he presented...

     
    t6rider
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 7:54 PM ET #21

    Glad you hit Wiseguy. I can’t stress enough using the batter vs pitcher history to go along with starting lineups with the top 1-5 guys in the lineup. You have to do a little work. I use the season 1st Inning Yes/no numbers for each pitcher as a guide. Strasbourg was like 1-11 at one point. Roark was near perfect. You can pinpoint regression with some of these guys. Some books also offer 1st Inning 3-way which is another great option. 
    Reply
    Glad you hit Wiseguy. I can’t stress enough using the batter vs pitcher history to go along with starting lineups with the top 1-5 guys in the lineup. You have to do a little work. I use the season 1st Inning Yes/no numbers for each pitcher as a guide. Strasbourg was like 1-11 at one point. Roark was near perfect. You can pinpoint regression with some of these guys. Some books also offer 1st Inning 3-way which is another great option. 
     
    HashToker
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 7:54 PM ET #22

    Just bet YES, especially for games that should be easy NO's. Coors starts off slow and gets going as it gets hotter, same as Globe Life in Arlington. West coast parks are still pitcher parks. Always check the weather. Two easy winners today with the Dbacks game and the Mets game with winds going straight out at 10mph+.  Somebody posted this guy who does 1st inn, but he doesn't seem to do them everyday... https://twitter.com/PointShaver13  GL with your bets
    It's nice to have a president with balls and a first lady without them.
    Reply
    Just bet YES, especially for games that should be easy NO's. Coors starts off slow and gets going as it gets hotter, same as Globe Life in Arlington. West coast parks are still pitcher parks. Always check the weather. Two easy winners today with the Dbacks game and the Mets game with winds going straight out at 10mph+.  Somebody posted this guy who does 1st inn, but he doesn't seem to do them everyday... https://twitter.com/PointShaver13  GL with your bets
     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 8:02 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by t6rider:

    Glad you hit Wiseguy. I can’t stress enough using the batter vs pitcher history to go along with starting lineups with the top 1-5 guys in the lineup. You have to do a little work. I use the season 1st Inning Yes/no numbers for each pitcher as a guide. Strasbourg was like 1-11 at one point. Roark was near perfect. You can pinpoint regression with some of these guys. Some books also offer 1st Inning 3-way which is another great option. 




    I think it's interesting that Wacha who has no problem giving up
    runs did so today , which is why I made the wager.

    I hope you will post more information on this strategy as I think it
    has promise as a betting method.

    Thanks again , Bud 
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by t6rider:

    Glad you hit Wiseguy. I can’t stress enough using the batter vs pitcher history to go along with starting lineups with the top 1-5 guys in the lineup. You have to do a little work. I use the season 1st Inning Yes/no numbers for each pitcher as a guide. Strasbourg was like 1-11 at one point. Roark was near perfect. You can pinpoint regression with some of these guys. Some books also offer 1st Inning 3-way which is another great option. 




    I think it's interesting that Wacha who has no problem giving up
    runs did so today , which is why I made the wager.

    I hope you will post more information on this strategy as I think it
    has promise as a betting method.

    Thanks again , Bud 
     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 8:05 PM ET #24

    I certainly agree this has merit...need to get into this much more as the season goes on...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
    Reply
    I certainly agree this has merit...need to get into this much more as the season goes on...

     
     
    t6rider
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 8:08 PM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by HashToker:

    Just bet YES, especially for games that should be easy NO's. Coors starts off slow and gets going as it gets hotter, same as Globe Life in Arlington. West coast parks are still pitcher parks. Always check the weather. Two easy winners today with the Dbacks game and the Mets game with winds going straight out at 10mph+.  Somebody posted this guy who does 1st inn, but he doesn't seem to do them everyday... https://twitter.com/PointShaver13  GL with your bets








    That’s me. That’s hilarious. 






    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by HashToker:

    Just bet YES, especially for games that should be easy NO's. Coors starts off slow and gets going as it gets hotter, same as Globe Life in Arlington. West coast parks are still pitcher parks. Always check the weather. Two easy winners today with the Dbacks game and the Mets game with winds going straight out at 10mph+.  Somebody posted this guy who does 1st inn, but he doesn't seem to do them everyday... https://twitter.com/PointShaver13  GL with your bets








    That’s me. That’s hilarious. 






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