Posted:
#176
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
W Yankees -114 *BB
W Cubbies -145 *BB
W Mets +109 *BB
3 more WINNERS! 
🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵
Posted:
#180
Tuesday, May 07: (overnight lines, mostly pinnacle)
L Orioles -198 *BB
W Yankees -114 *BB
W Cubbies -145 *BB
W Mets +109 *BB
L Hou/NYY und 9 -141 *BB
W Tor/Philly ov 8.0 -108 *BB
W Tor/Philly ov 7.0 -168 alt
push LAA/Pitt un 9.0 -142 alt
W LIVE BET: Rangers -150
W Dodgers -322 *BB
W Mia/LAD ov 7 -142
= 8 - 2 +4.70u (5 -2 *BB)
YTD: 42 - 30 - 3 +10.61u (23 - 16 *BB)
The offensively challenged Cardinals lose their top slugger!
Posted:
#185
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
W Angels +126 *BB
L Phillies -153 *BB
push Tor/Phil ov 8 -128
Schhpplitt 1 - 1 - 1 -0.27 so far
.... 3 bets pending
Note: I believe this marks a slight uptick in Toronto performances for the next several games, until their next slump.
Phillies still OK. No downturn anticipated.
(2 - 1 *BB)
Posted:
#187
Thursday, May 09:
KC/LAA ov 8 -119 *BB (pinnacle overnight)
My system also indicates Dbacks, Giants and Guardians but I'm PASSING on those.
Mariners would normally be a play with Gilbert pitching extremely well. But therein lies the problem! If you followed my posts during the 2021 season you may remember my discussions about pitcher "HOT STREAKS" ...well Gilbert is on a 7 game streak now without a bad outing! He's due for one any game-start now. So I'm backing away until AFTER an inevitable bad outing - which every GOOD starter endures a couple times a season. He's very good, but the risk of a bad outing is HIGH and will grow even higher if he manages another strong game. Meanwhile his counterpart LOPEZ is also decent and Twinkies have the better offense in their home park... So to me it would be a coin-flipper anyway...
BoL with your bets today, fellas! 
Posted:
#191
Quote Originally Posted by Coloneljim:
Good luck on today's plays fubah. Agree with that over play.
Good luck on today's plays fubah. Agree with that over play.
@Coloneljim
Hopefully it pays off, but I'm going to play the odds going in, regardless.
In my KC/LAA ov 8 bet I have the offenses roughly equal, IN THIS PARTICULAR VENUE, withestimated NET GAME PITCHING value scored as worse than average (suggesting scoring!!) My capping suggests a game total of 9 runs (mean), but the "most probable range" (MPR) at 7 - 11 runs (with 9 runs being the center)
My MPR suggests the game total is very highly to fall somewhere within these:
7 8p 9 10 11
An over 8 bet means I would win outright on three of them, push on one (which is fine by me!) and lose only on one of the five!
This does not guarantee a winner! But if my run assessment is reasonably close to accurate [always the key, but my MPR offers a cushion] then I believe this stands a 60% chance of winning v. only a 20% chance of losing
Also, take note, that I strongly prefer totals on an integer (no 1/2 totals) because for example if I played an over 8.5 (rather than 8.0) then within my MPR, two would lose instead of just one in five. Over time this difference adds up!
No promises though!.....I'm just playing the probabilities here....
Posted:
#193
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Thursday, May 09:
They are getting to Gilbert early!! Could this be the bad outing that he is due to endure sooner or later?? I think maybe, yes!.... bottom of first, Twins up 1 - 0.... LIVE BET: TWINKIES -260
Thursday, May 09:
Mariners would normally be a play with Gilbert pitching extremely well. But therein lies the problem! If you followed my posts during the 2021 season you may remember my discussions about pitcher "HOT STREAKS" ...well Gilbert is on a 7 game streak now without a bad outing! He's due for one any game-start now. So I'm backing away until AFTER an inevitable bad outing - which every GOOD starter endures a couple times a season. He's very good, but the risk of a bad outing is HIGH and will grow even higher if he manages another strong game. Meanwhile his counterpart LOPEZ is also decent and Twinkies have the better offense in their home park... So to me it would be a coin-flipper anyway... BoL with your bets today, fellas!
Posted:
#196
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
In my KC/LAA ov 8 bet I have the offenses roughly equal, IN THIS PARTICULAR VENUE, withestimated NET GAME PITCHING value scored as worse than average (suggesting scoring!!) My capping suggests a game total of 9 runs (mean), but the "most probable range" (MPR) at 7 - 11 runs (with 9 runs being the center)
My MPR suggests the game total is very highly to fall somewhere within these:
7 8p 9 10 11
An over 8 bet means I would win outright on three of them, push on one (which is fine by me!) and lose only on one of the five!
This does not guarantee a winner! But if my run assessment is reasonably close to accurate [always the key, but my MPR offers a cushion] then I believe this stands a 60% chance of winning v. only a 20% chance of losing
Also, take note, that I strongly prefer totals on an integer (no 1/2 totals) because for example if I played an over 8.5 (rather than 8.0) then within my MPR, two would lose instead of just one in five. Over time this difference adds up!
No promises though!.....I'm just playing the probabilities here....
@fubah2
luv the analysis on the over 8 in the royals-angels game
will tail u again and bet that over 8 thks 
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
Posted:
#197
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Mariners would normally be a play with Gilbert pitching extremely well.
Mariners would normally be a play with Gilbert pitching extremely well.
But therein lies the problem!
If you followed my posts during the 2021 season you may remember my discussions about pitcher "HOT STREAKS" ...well Gilbert is on a 7 game streak now without a bad outing! He's due for one any game-start now. So I'm backing away until AFTER an inevitable bad outing - which every GOOD starter endures a couple times a season. He's very good, but the risk of a bad outing is HIGH and will grow even higher if he manages another strong game. Meanwhile his counterpart LOPEZ is also decent and Twinkies have the better offense in their home park... So to me it would be a coin-flipper anyway...
As I suggested above in post #187 I strongly believed it was wise to stay away from betting ON A GILBERT START due to the fact that his lucky HOT STREAK of 7 consecutive games WITHOUT a single BAD outing could come to an abrupt end at any time.
It just did. 
Through only 4 innings, the Mariners ACE starter, was tagged for 9 hits and 2 walks, including 8 earned runs!! 
He's still a VERY GOOD starter, make no mistake!! So I will consider his starts without restrictions going forward, now that he got that inevitable BAD OUTING out of the way...and will disregard it as an inevitable "one-off"
Posted:
#198
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Thursday, May 09: Mariners would normally be a play with Gilbert pitching extremely well. But therein lies the problem! If you followed my posts during the 2021 season you may remember my discussions about pitcher "HOT STREAKS" ...well Gilbert is on a 7 game streak now without a bad outing! He's due for one any game-start now. So I'm backing away until AFTER an inevitable bad outing - which every GOOD starter endures a couple times a season. He's very good, but the risk of a bad outing is HIGH and will grow even higher if he manages another strong game. Meanwhile his counterpart LOPEZ is also decent and Twinkies have the better offense in their home park... So to me it would be a coin-flipper anyway... BoL with your bets today, fellas!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Thursday, May 09: Mariners would normally be a play with Gilbert pitching extremely well. But therein lies the problem! If you followed my posts during the 2021 season you may remember my discussions about pitcher "HOT STREAKS" ...well Gilbert is on a 7 game streak now without a bad outing! He's due for one any game-start now. So I'm backing away until AFTER an inevitable bad outing - which every GOOD starter endures a couple times a season. He's very good, but the risk of a bad outing is HIGH and will grow even higher if he manages another strong game. Meanwhile his counterpart LOPEZ is also decent and Twinkies have the better offense in their home park... So to me it would be a coin-flipper anyway... BoL with your bets today, fellas!
They are getting to Gilbert early!! Could this be the bad outing that he is due to endure sooner or later?? I think maybe, yes!.... bottom of first, Twins up 1 - 0.... LIVE BET: TWINKIES -260
WINNER!! 
BoL with your bets today, fellas!
Posted:
#200
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
May 9, 2024Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Thursday that catcher Wilson Contreras is likely to be sidelined for about 10 weeks after successful surgery Wednesday to repair a fractured left forearm
CArds down 0 - 4 after 2 innings already and without their top slugger, it's going to be very difficult.....odds on Brewers jump to -700
May 9, 2024Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Thursday that catcher Wilson Contreras is likely to be sidelined for about 10 weeks after successful surgery Wednesday to repair a fractured left forearm
Hot Forum Topics
