Posted:
#1301
@fubah2
So do you like the Yankees -165 and Reds +118 today?
Good luck with your Picks. 
🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵
Posted:
#1302
Quote Originally Posted by Premian:
@fubah2
@fubah2
That sure was lucky.
I am slowly learning not to overbet. I also did a parlay on the Yankees/Tigers.
I have to stop doing parlays.
Bingo.
Bingo.
Bingo.....my friend.
Best time to learn a hard lesson is after an escape without the loss. Self-discipline (and emotional self-control!!) is a very underrated part of gambling. If learned and practiced wisely it can save a gambler's ass "bigly" many time over! I cannot emphasize that enough! I've lost multiple bankrolls over the years which - upon reflection - was at least 90% due to bad discipline. I'm positive many long-experienced gamblers know this well.
to success!
Posted:
#1305
WARNING: STREAKER alert!
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! 
RODON, Yankees
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day. There's other games to look at. I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts after that! 
Posted:
#1307
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
WARNING: STREAKER alert! This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK, WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET! ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! RODON, Yankees Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided. When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day. There's other games to look at. I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts after that!
WARNING: STREAKER alert! This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK, WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET! ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! RODON, Yankees Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided. When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day. There's other games to look at. I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts after that!
Gil gave up 1 run with the same stat lines..just much lower ERA.......
He actually was shaky all night..u cursed him....
Saw Rodons last bad start @Bmore...he's shaky during the day....
Wish they would come back to earth soon...
Posted:
#1308
Here’s a general thought.. most harp on pitching but I see good pitching/ weak hitting teams just trap bettors over and over.. like the Tigers and Royals.. remember good starters only go 2/3rds of a game, crappy lineups play the whole game..
A good hitting team is never out of it, a bad one may never be in it..
and best of luck on your plays.
Posted:
#1310
Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:
Here’s a general thought.. most harp on pitching but I see good pitching/ weak hitting teams just trap bettors over and over.. like the Tigers and Royals.. remember good starters only go 2/3rds of a game, crappy lineups play the whole game.. A good hitting team is never out of it, a bad one may never be in it..
Here’s a general thought.. most harp on pitching but I see good pitching/ weak hitting teams just trap bettors over and over.. like the Tigers and Royals.. remember good starters only go 2/3rds of a game, crappy lineups play the whole game.. A good hitting team is never out of it, a bad one may never be in it..
@Hoyasaxa
EXCELLENT food for thought!
Posted:
#1311
I think VERLANDER (Astros) is in a good spot as a starter "due for a rebound game" following TWO poor outings. I would NOT make that assessment were he a weak pitcher or even merely mediocre....He is not GREAT, no, but I do rate him as better than mediocre, and so such pitchers typically rebound back to form, ESPECIALLY when NOT facing a GOOD offense!
But even if he has a very good game while he's in there, this does not imply the Astros beat the Tiggers, although it does suggest a favorable edge in probabilities for Houston...
Posted:
#1314
Quote Originally Posted by estes1717:
looks like Verlander scratched out
looks like Verlander scratched out
@estes1717
Ahh so. 
Yes indeed. Thanks for the heads up! 
Verlander OUT; Spighetti in....
Spighetti has weak numbers overall but fairly good outings in 2 of recent 3.
Again, he won't be facing a potent offense v. righties...
But I see this as a PASS
Posted:
#1315
WARNING: STREAKER alert!
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
FLAHERTY, Tigers
NOTE: These HOT STREAKER warnings are based on MY assessment of the starter's game logs. Some people may hold different views.
For me, 4 earned runs is automatically classed a "BAD OUTING"
Three earned runs might be also, depending on how many innings he pitched and his WHIP stat.
For me, 3 earned runs in AT LEAST 6+ full innings is classed as a "mediocre outing" *IF* his WHIP stat for the game is also below 1.50 and he shows ability to strike out a number of batters.
Such an outing may not be a GOOD one per se, but it avoids being tagged a "BAD OUTING" and that is the key to my streak stats.
FLAHERTY's May 23 and May 12 performances are classed as mediocre and DO NOT qualify as "BAD outings"
Posted:
#1317
Quote Originally Posted by Premian:
@fubah2 I had to cancel my Reds bet because of the pitching change. All I have is Yankees -169 average to win 2 Units. Good luck with your picks.
@fubah2 I had to cancel my Reds bet because of the pitching change. All I have is Yankees -169 average to win 2 Units. Good luck with your picks.
All you have is all you need ..........We don't need to have multiple bets in the fire every single day....it's ok to settle for one good one and watch the game, or just take the day off! It's all part of sound self-discipline.
As for the Yankees I think your bet will be ok........Even if RODON has a bad outing, their bats are good enough to win a lot of games. BoL @Premian
Posted:
#1319
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
WARNING: STREAKER alert!
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
RODON, Yankees
Still just in the 2nd inning, RODON has allowed 8 on base and a whopping 5 earned runs!
Already this is a "BAD OUTING" regardless the final score....
Posted:
#1321
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: With many new series beginning today, it also marks a change in venue for several teams, and that can often trigger a reversal in outcomes - particularly coming off a winning or losing road trip or conversely a winning or losing homestand.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: With many new series beginning today, it also marks a change in venue for several teams, and that can often trigger a reversal in outcomes - particularly coming off a winning or losing road trip or conversely a winning or losing homestand.
This is a hypothesis I've been giving slightly more weight to.Not a lot of weight, but certainly some...
Samples:
NATS return home vs the weakass Marlins (11 - 20 roadie), having stepped up to the plate with 33 runs over their last 7 games.... In game 1 the NATS put up a solid SP in GORE, who had an owweee vs METS 2games ago then bounced back with an excellent 1 ER performance v Braves, and now gets to face the WORST TEAM in mLB at batting against lefties!
TIGGERS were on a recent 8 - 3 run, then crashed to just 2 for 7 giving up a LOT of runs. Maybe getting back on the road with a new series can reverse their fortunes - particularly with a SKUBAL/Brown matchup that looks like a one-sided mismatch....maybe....Of course, a case can be made on either side....
BRAVES are coming off a disappointing 3 - 6 roadtrip, and returning home, where they hold a 19 - 12 home record.....now facing a mediocre Tampa squad that only managed 18 totals runs in their recent 7 game homestand.... I'll be looking to put down some $$ on the BRAVES taking this series...
ROCKIES suck on the road, sure.... but they got Thursday OFF and now start fresh again at home, facing a mediocre Pirates squad that has managed just 7 suns in 3 road games thus far!
BRAVES win the series in 2 games!
NATS win the series in 2 games! 
TIGGERS are tied
ROCKIES are tied
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