UFC on FUEL TV 10: Nogueira vs. Werdum 2

Last event: 8 - 4
YTD: 72 - 44
2012: 111 - 56

Last Event: 3TP Win  +9%

YTD: +15% on posted plays

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira   vs.   Fabricio Werdum  
Main Event | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

The ground games cancel each other out with a slight edge to Werdum if it hits the mat. Standing big nog definitely has the advantage in knockout power and he may also be a bit more technical with his hands but I think that is where the advantages end for big Nog. Even though Nogueira is only two years older than Werdum, he has many more miles on his aging body and I think that will be the difference. Werdum needs to stay away from the over hand and straight right from Nogueira, if and when he does so he picks his spots to close the distance, tie big nog up against the fence, lean on him and start landing those knees.

Prediction - Werdum via TKO knees and punches round 3.

William Macario   vs.   Leonardo Santos  
Co-Main Event | Tournament Finals | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

uhhhh I think I remember Santos a bit from his Sengoku days but who the f**k is William Macario.

Prediction - Santos via submission in the 1st.

Thiago Silva   vs.   Rafael Cavalcante  
Main Card | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

I respect Cavalcante but he has been out for a bout a year, this one should be good though, I am leaning Silva via hard fought decision.

Prediction - Thiago Silva via split decision.

Jason High   vs.   Erick Silva  
Main Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

There is a ton of value in Jason if tapology is right and Silva is a -320 favorite. High has way above average wrestling and cardio, has Silva fixed his cardio issues? If he doesn't get the quick KO he will be pushed to his limits again this fight, we'll see if he has improved his wrestling and cardio.

Prediction - Jason high via UD.

Daniel Sarafian   vs.   Eddie Mendez  
Main Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

Sarafian SMASH. This should be an underhand pitch right over the plate for Daniel.

Prediction - Sarafian via KO round 1.

Rony Jason   vs.   Mike Wilkinson 
Main Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

I missed Wilkinson's first fight in the UFC, but I do know that Rony Jason is really good!

Prediction - Jason via submission in the 2nd.

Raphael Assuncao   vs.   Vaughan Lee  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Lee is as scrappy as they come and has a nice mix of striking and grappling but I think he is simply outclassed by Assuncao in this fight.

Prediction - Assuncao via UD.

Derek Brunson   vs.   Ronny Markes  
Preliminary Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

Chris Leben to Ronny Markes, have fun with that Mr.Brunson.

Prediction - Ronny Markes by whatever he wants. Ok....submission in the 3rd.

I'm on Erick already - It certainly was a consideration that High will lay on him like Fitch did. But I have to think that Fitch's MMA wrestling is better than Highs. Also, previous to The Fitch fight, I thought Erick had decent TDD. I also understand Erick had a tough weight cut before the fitch fight. All in all I gave Fitch credit as the better fighter, with back against the wall, and I HOPE!! Silva continues his brilliance.

FYI, for fightodds check out `bestfightodds.com`.... Erick is actually upwards of 400 now

nice write ups as always buddy

I like your pick on Silva/Calvacante however my total lack of respect for capping abilities took a complete nose dive when you chose High over E.Silva.

can't pick all favorites, where is the fun in that? You'd just try and shoot me down to make yourself feel better about your small penis for one thing or the other, haters gonna hate.

Becareful w/the high pick.  Silva is one of my favorite plays on the card to parlay n e thing with.  I actually think he will finish the fight.  He had a bad weight cut for Fitch, look at the Charlie Bren fight (Bren is a better wrestler imo)

Felipe Arantes   vs.   Godofredo Pepey  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)
 
Arantes drew wtih Milton Vieira in his last fight, while Pepy was able to eck out a split decision win against the aforementioned Vieira. Pepy is a ground specialist that will pull guard to entangle you in his long limbs, this doesn't always work out well as it doesn't look the best to judges and someone with good submission defense can nullify Pepy's attack and work his own top game. Arantes is an inch taller than Pepy but Pepy has crazy long arms for featherweight enabling him to pick his spots from range while finding the right time to close the distance to attempt to take this to the mat. Like a lot of Brazilian fighters he at times seems to lack the technical wrestling to fully utilize his excellent ground game. Arantes on the other hand is quite adept at changing levels for a double leg or single leg either in the middle of the cage or up against the fence. Arantes' striking is medium with above average power for a featherweight, he leans more to the style of a grinder than a technician, with good cardio and above average fight IQ. While Pepy beat Viera and Arantes drew with him the draw was close and could have been scored for Arantes. I think Arante's grinding style and decent submission defense carries him to the super close split decision as long as he closes the distance well, fights on the inside and nullifys Pepy's take-down attempts.

Prediction - Arantes via split decision.

Ildemar Alcantara   vs.   Leandro Silva 
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Ildemar is the brother of bantamweight Yuri Alcantara. Ildemar scored a huge upset win in his octagon debut, defeating Wagner Prado via leg lock.

What I do know about Silva is what I've read on bloodyelbow. Undefeated and reps Jorge Patino's Macaco Gold team and Chute Boxe. He has 7 wins via submission and 4 via decision. Other than that I am pretty in the dark with these two. I'll make a prediction but will be getting the notepad out  when they fight. Staying away.

Prediction - Alcantara via submission late in the 2nd.

Didn't do my due diligence on the Markes vs Brunson fight. I forgot that Brunson was a legit D1 wrestler and fights out of Jackson's MMA. That changes things a bit. I am still leaning Markes but Brunson is actually pretty good, just a heads up. 

Rodrigo Damm   vs.   Mizuto Hirota  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

This could play out as a fun grappling match which I would be looking forward to and would give the edge to Hirota. Damm probably has more power standing and throws good straight punches but I can't help but think Hirota will constantly be pressing forward looking for the take-down, throw in his above average cardio and iron chin (no loses via KO/TKO) I think he gets the nod over Damm.

Prediction - Hirota via split decision.

Karlos Vemola   vs.   Caio Magalhaes  
Preliminary Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

People are sleeping on Magalhaes I think, he didn't look great in his Octagon debut but to be fair Buddy Roberts is actually pretty good. I think Magalhaes has his octagon jitters behind him, wears Vemola down until he gasses and then locks on a submission in the third. Give me the 25 year old Nova Uniao BJJ black belt fighting at home.

BTW I don't think Vemola was ever a 6 time National Czech wrestling champion, if he was it was when he was like 10 or something.

https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2013/6/3/4389134/ufc-karlos-vemola-czech-national-wrestling-champion

Prediction - Magalhaes via submission in the 3rd, arm bar.

I respect your pick, and to be honest you will probably be right. I like to pick the under-dog in these predictions sometimes though :) Jason's wrestling is no Joke though, however Silva is probably training take-down defense like a mad man and has been for other fights too (see brennaman, Fitch, now High) so he has that going for him too.

Check out this article on High if you have not already, it's a good read and some more insight into why he has a slight chance to pull off the upset, I probably won't be betting this because I like both fighters so much, I feel like I can enjoy fights a little more sometimes if I don't have money on them.

Article: https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2013/6/6/4390018/coach-mikes-fact-grinder-jason-high-ufc-fuel-tv-10-erick-silva

Anthony Smith   vs.   Antonio Braga Neto  
Preliminary Card | Middleweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

I have never seen Antonio Braga Neto fight, I do know he is a ground wizard and has tapped out Brock Larson and Maiguel Falcao, granted I haven't seen the taps, but I'm willing to bet he can submit Anthony Smith if he can submit Larson and Falcao.

Prediction - Braga Neto via submission in the 1st.

By the way, when Neto tapped Larson with a leglock it was only the second time in 44 fights that Larson tapped out, the first time you ask? He tapped to a Carlos Condit arm triangle. Will be interesting to see if this Neto guys is for real, he is only 25 years old too.

Crazy, thanks for the update.

Plays are locked in

UFC on Fuel TV 10 plays:
3 Team Parlay #298118294
Risk 7%
(8506) Daniel Sarafian -450
(8500) Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum -325
(8508) Rony "Jason" Mariano Bezerra -335


Singles:
Risk 2% each
(8523) Mizuto "Pugnus" Hirota +140
(8521) Caio "Hellboy" Magalhaes EVEN

Adding hail mary 12TP
Risk .5%

Felipe "Sertanejo" Arantes -230
Antonio Braga Neto -265
Raphael Assuncao -325
Daniel Sarafian -450
Rony "Jason" Mariano Bezerra -335
Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante -210
Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum -325
 Ildemar "Marajo" Alcantara -185
Leo Santos -225
Erick "Indio" Silva -450
Caio "Hellboy" Magalhaes EVEN
Mizuto "Pugnus" Hirota +140?