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Posted: #1
Chris Weidman +130 (4 Units)


I'll have a write up later in the week...If the line keeps going up, I'll probably put more on Weidman closer to the fight...I love a bunch of fights this weekend, interested in the odds...
 
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Posted: #2
Curious to see the write up man. Im on Gastelum just think most of the fight will take place on the feet and Gastelum is way better standing than Weidman. 

Gooduck on tonight fights I'm on Hamilton as well.
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by TheDiesel44:

Curious to see the write up man. Im on Gastelum just think most of the fight will take place on the feet and Gastelum is way better standing than Weidman. 

Gooduck on tonight fights I'm on Hamilton as well.

I definitely disagree that Gastelum is way better than Weidman standing, but I'll have a write-up later in the week.
 
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Posted: #4
Isn't crazy how Gastelum went from being last picked on TUF to winning TUF to compiling an impressive record with quality wins...TO BEING FAVORED OVER CHRIS WEIDMAN! I know Weidman has had 3 straight losses, and I hate to put myself in the "underestimate Kevin Gastelum" boat but i've gotta take Weidman for +money.
R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
 
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Posted: #5
5 round distance is what gets Chris beaten here, if he loses.  3 rounds and I like him here. 5 rounds is alot to ask from a guy who has looked dead in rounds 2 and 3 lately. He's gotta really pace himself in this one.
 
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Posted: #6
I agree that the odds on Chris are good here.  I have long been a pr+oponent of Gastelum, but Chris is the bigger and stronger man here.  Not long ago, Gastelum was saying he did not want to go up to 85 because he did not think he could beat guys like Weidman and Rockhold.  I also agree that 5 rounds favors Gastelum.  The fight could end up looking like the Tim Kennedy fight where Chris ragdolls him around before gassing out and getting finished.  I just think around +140 or so there's a pretty decent chance he gets control on the ground and either pounds him out or submits him early.  The props on early finish by Weidman or late finish by Kelvin will be worth alook.
 
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Posted: #7
Chris Weidman +130 (4 Units)
Chris Weidman +145 (1 Unit)
 
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Posted: #8
bunch of good lookin dogs. cowboy olivera, almeida, always love godofredo.   check out gian villante. sunday 1pm he was -101 today he's -156
 
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Posted: #9
Frankie Perez +275 (1 Unit)
Godogredo Pepey +400 (1 Unit)
Burgos/Pepey Under 1.5 -140 (1 Unit)
Albini/Johnson Under 2.5 -110 (1 Unit)
Kyle Bochniak +210 (1 Unit)
Marlon Vera +185 (2 Units)
Rafael Natal +100 (2 Units)
Elizeu Zaleski +140 (2 Units)
Patrick Cummins +140 (1 Unit)
Darren Elkins +175 (2 Units)
Chris Weidman +130 (4 Units)
Chris Weidman +145 (1 Unit)
 
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Posted: #10
JIMMIE RIVERA!! Lockkkk! He's coming for that belt
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Loucovers44:

JIMMIE RIVERA!! Lockkkk! He's coming for that belt


Far from a lock, but GL.  
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Chris Weidman +130 (4 Units)


I'll have a write up later in the week...If the line keeps going up, I'll probably put more on Weidman closer to the fight...I love a bunch of fights this weekend, interested in the odds...



Been curious to see your Weidman write-up as I'm heavy on Gastelum. Are you still planning on posting that or did you run out of time?
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Frankie Perez +275 (1 Unit)
Godogredo Pepey +400 (1 Unit)
Burgos/Pepey Under 1.5 -140 (1 Unit)
Albini/Johnson Under 2.5 -110 (1 Unit)
Kyle Bochniak +210 (1 Unit)
Marlon Vera +185 (2 Units)
Rafael Natal +100 (2 Units)
Elizeu Zaleski +140 (2 Units)
Patrick Cummins +140 (1 Unit)
Darren Elkins +175 (2 Units)
Chris Weidman +130 (4 Units)
Chris Weidman +145 (1 Unit)


Riding with you on the dogs    
 
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Posted: #14
Weidman vs Gastelum Write-Up:


Let's first start with the size factor.  

Weidman is 6'2 with a 78 inch reach.
Gastelum is 5'9 with a 71.5 inch reach.

Weidman looked way bigger than Gastelum at the weigh-ins and will be way bigger tonight for the fight.


Now, let's take a look at the odds.  Wediman has only been a bigger dog than he is tonight in his first fight against Silva, in which he was +195.  


Weidman UFC Odds History:

-240 vs Sakara
-500 vs Bongfeldt
-365 vs Lawlor
-150 vs Maia
-150 vs Munoz
+195 vs Silva
+145 vs Silva
-190 vs Machida
-400 vs Belfort
-155 vs Rockhold (L)
-210 vs Romero (L)
-105 vs Mousasi (L)
+145 vs Gastelum???

Gastelum UFC Odds History:

Hall +285
Melancon -300
Story -180
Musoke -380
Ellenberger -230
Woodley +175 (L)
Marquart -500
Magny -335 (L)
Hendricks -110
Kennedy +105
Belfort -355
Weidman -165???


I just think there is massive value on Weidman tonight at 185 lbs against a fighter than is truly between weight classes.  Weidman's last 3 opponents are way better than anyone that Gastelum has fought at 185 lbs.  

Gastelum's fights are a bit smoke and mirrors recently.

-He lost a split decision to Magny as a -335 favorite at 170 lbs.
-He beat Hendricks by UD at UFC 200 at 170 lbs.
-He then missed weight vs Cowboy at 205 and had to move up to 185.
-He beat Tim Kennedy, who hadn't fought in over 2 years after a brutal KO to Romero.
-He then beat Vitor in Brazil after Vitor had lost 3 of his last 4.


They both KO'd Vitor, however Weidman did it when Vitor was on a 3 fight KO win streak.  Gastelum got him 4 fights later.


I'm worried where Gastelum's head is at after his suspension, I'm worried about the size differential, and I'm worried about the level of competition he has faced at 185.


Weidman knows this is due or die for him, his last 3 fights could have gone either way, he's in his own backyard, and the crowd will ride him to victory tonight.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I really believe this is a good spot and value for Weidman.
 
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Posted: #15
Weidman has taken a ton of damage in those last 3 fights though and he appeared to gas after a round and a half in all 3. He also struggles to actually hold people down when he takes them down, which is part of the reason he has success early but burns his gas tank and gets finished late.

I understand the points about the size differential, as well as the talent in competition, but Gastelum has appeared to look much better in his fights recently while Weidman looks like a complete shell of himself. Weidman's chin is a HUGE concern now, too, and Gastelum has shown to have a great chin to go along with fantastic cardio. In my opinion, Gastelum should have won that Magny decision and the only reason he struggled there was because Magny is a cardio machine and could actually match Gastelum in that department. Weidman is no cardio machine. I see Weidman having some success early, likely getting a takedown or two, but he'll struggle to do anything with them and gas himself out. He will begin to fade in the middle rounds and that's where Gastelum will overwhelm him with volume and eventually clip Weidman's now suspect chin.

If this were a 3 round fight, I think it favors Weidman slightly. But a 5 round fight? Give me Gastelum all day. Weidman was in his own back yard his last 2 fights and that didn't seem to matter. The size differential is really the only thing that gives me pause but I still think Gastelum takes this. You can even get Gastelum (Scorecards = No Action) for almost the exact same price as the ML at 5Dimes right now. That would cover you in case Chris somehow manages to secure 3 rounds or there is some type of hometown cooking BS decision. If Gastelum wins, it's likely a finish, so that seems like a decent approach. Good luck
 
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Posted: #16
I don't necessarily think that Weidman is a better overall fighter than Gastelum.. I like Gastelum's ground game better, but I think there is definitely value w/Weidman and am playing him for 1 unit as well. 

GL Shango!
 
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Posted: #17


Beast mode tonight Papa!

 
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Posted: #18
Great job like always, papa!
 
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Posted: #19
CHRIS WEIDMAN IS BACK BABY!!!!!


 
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Posted: #20
Frankie Perez +275 (1 Unit)
Godogredo Pepey +400 (1 Unit)
Burgos/Pepey Under 1.5 -140 (1 Unit)
Albini/Johnson Under 2.5 -110 (1 Unit)
Kyle Bochniak +210 (1 Unit)
Marlon Vera +185 (2 Units)
Rafael Natal +100 (2 Units)
Elizeu Zaleski +140 (2 Units)
Patrick Cummins +140 (1 Unit)
Darren Elkins +175 (2 Units)
Chris Weidman +130 (4 Units)
Chris Weidman +145 (1 Unit)



+12.65 Units on the card...Another + UFC card...
 
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Posted: #21
Crushed it tonight  Nice to finally see Weidman win again, huge win for him.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

CHRIS WEIDMAN IS BACK BABY!!!!!




Nice hit but do you really think he's "back?" Had that 1st round been about 10 seconds longer, he would have been staring at his 4th consecutive KO loss. He dominated the wrestling exchanges over the MUCH smaller guy and kudos to him for getting a much needed W. But in my mind, all of the red flags that surround him are still there. That chin is gone, his cardio issues will still remain the same, he looks much weaker/drained since USADA, and he still has trouble holding his opponents down with his wrestling (obviously wasn't an issue against the tiny Gastelum, although Gastelum still did well at times). In my opinion, Chris winning in the fashion that he did sets him up as HUGE fade material if he faces a top 5 guy in the division again. I really hope he gets a solid opponent again in his next fight and the odds are way off after everyone claiming "he's back."

Credit to you, though. Good call and I was obviously wrong. Thought Kelvin would be a bit more active early on and force Chris to expend much more energy than he did. I figured Weidman would have some success early with his wrestling, then start to fade as the fight went on. Then I thought Gastelum would take over and likely KO him. Again, one punch and he had Weidman sailing across the cage wondering where he was. 10 more seconds......
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by J-MoneyMaker:



Nice hit but do you really think he's "back?" Had that 1st round been about 10 seconds longer, he would have been staring at his 4th consecutive KO loss. He dominated the wrestling exchanges over the MUCH smaller guy and kudos to him for getting a much needed W. But in my mind, all of the red flags that surround him are still there. That chin is gone, his cardio issues will still remain the same, he looks much weaker/drained since USADA, and he still has trouble holding his opponents down with his wrestling (obviously wasn't an issue against the tiny Gastelum, although Gastelum still did well at times). In my opinion, Chris winning in the fashion that he did sets him up as HUGE fade material if he faces a top 5 guy in the division again. I really hope he gets a solid opponent again in his next fight and the odds are way off after everyone claiming "he's back."

Credit to you, though. Good call and I was obviously wrong. Thought Kelvin would be a bit more active early on and force Chris to expend much more energy than he did. I figured Weidman would have some success early with his wrestling, then start to fade as the fight went on. Then I thought Gastelum would take over and likely KO him. Again, one punch and he had Weidman sailing across the cage wondering where he was. 10 more seconds......


I completely disagree with your assessment of the fight.  His "chin" is not gone at all.  That was the first time he's ever been knocked down in his career besides Romero's knee.  Anyone would've dropped with that punch.  Weidman dominated over 12 minutes of that 13 minute fight.  I don't think he would have been finished with another 10 seconds.  I watched the fight 3 times again.  He was hanging on.  

He has the best grappling in the division, he can throw with anyone, and his cardio looked great after all of that wrestling in the 1st two rounds.  Gastelum has never been finished before and was finished by Weidman.  Give the man some credit.  I would bet him against anybody in the division with exception of Whittaker and possibly Rockhold.  Yes, I would take Weidman in a rematch against Romero.  
 
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Posted: #24
OK, he was dropped, knocked out, or TKO'd in his past 4 fights and lost 3 of them. Not sure how that supports your argument of his chin not being gone. And with each beating he took, I'm sure the more it's deteriorated. Take a look at this crazy picture below from the Gastelum punch and I can assure you, that punch didn't help his chin issues going forward.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFblfTxXoAAQpHU.jpg:large

Weidman was successful in the wrestling department, yes, but I firmly believe he was only able to keep Gastelum down because of the insane size discrepancy. Against Mousasi, Rockhold, Romero, he wasn't able to keep any of them down and also gassed himself out in trying to do so. I feel like this victory over a much smaller guy is going to get a lot of people back on the Weidman bandwagon when it didn't really prove much to me that any of his past issues were fixed.

I did give Weidman credit in my earlier post. I said kudos to him for getting a much needed win. His career was on the line and he seemed extremely motivated and had the crowd behind him. If we're being honest, Kelvin didn't seem that interested during the fight. Seemed very lackadaisical, like he can be at times. Regardless, Chris was actually able to keep Gastelum down when he took him down, which is something he hasn't been able to do in recent fights. That allowed him to conserve some more energy and have enough in the tank to secure the finish in the 3rd.

I doubt either of us are going to be able to change the other person's opinion at this point, but that's ok. That's what makes betting and forums like this fun for discussion. If anything, I am happy Weidman won because I really think there are going to be some enticing odds on his opponents in the future if he gets back to facing the top guys in the division. Anyways, good win and a solid night overall for you. Congrats and good luck on the big PPV this weekend
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by J-MoneyMaker:

OK, he was dropped, knocked out, or TKO'd in his past 4 fights and lost 3 of them. Not sure how that supports your argument of his chin not being gone. And with each beating he took, I'm sure the more it's deteriorated. Take a look at this crazy picture below from the Gastelum punch and I can assure you, that punch didn't help his chin issues going forward.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFblfTxXoAAQpHU.jpg:large

Weidman was successful in the wrestling department, yes, but I firmly believe he was only able to keep Gastelum down because of the insane size discrepancy. Against Mousasi, Rockhold, Romero, he wasn't able to keep any of them down and also gassed himself out in trying to do so. I feel like this victory over a much smaller guy is going to get a lot of people back on the Weidman bandwagon when it didn't really prove much to me that any of his past issues were fixed.

I did give Weidman credit in my earlier post. I said kudos to him for getting a much needed win. His career was on the line and he seemed extremely motivated and had the crowd behind him. If we're being honest, Kelvin didn't seem that interested during the fight. Seemed very lackadaisical, like he can be at times. Regardless, Chris was actually able to keep Gastelum down when he took him down, which is something he hasn't been able to do in recent fights. That allowed him to conserve some more energy and have enough in the tank to secure the finish in the 3rd.

I doubt either of us are going to be able to change the other person's opinion at this point, but that's ok. That's what makes betting and forums like this fun for discussion. If anything, I am happy Weidman won because I really think there are going to be some enticing odds on his opponents in the future if he gets back to facing the top guys in the division. Anyways, good win and a solid night overall for you. Congrats and good luck on the big PPV this weekend

I notice that this is what you do when you don't want to give credit to a fighter, you say that their opponent didn't care.  Right, Gastelum didn't care to bet Weidman, Rumble didn't care both times to beat Cormier.  This is just an absurd argument to mask that the better fighter won the fights.

Who in the division would you bet against Weidman right now?  Maybe Whittaker and Rockhold.  Who else?  Bisping?  It'd be a good fight, but I would definitely give the edge to Weidman.  Romero?  Weidman did not gas out in that fight, he just got caught with an incredible knee on his way in for a shoot.  Who else would you favor over Weidman?  You're making it seem like there will be this great opportunity to bet against him.
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