UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall

Any thoughts on this article bud?

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2022/03/ufc-fight-night-204-mike-grundy-motivated-win-terminally-ill-father

@monkeebooger

 That is a very real motivating factor for Grundy, but also a lot of pressure and emotion having his ill father watching. I wish Grundy all the best as that is very sad news. 

Appreciate it Paletta thank you. 

Monkee 

I reached out to covers team on Wednesday, and still haven't heard back. Initially, I couldn't post or make a thread, now I can post but can't make a thread.

I'll post my picks here in a few, but here are some thoughts on the fights/your write ups: I'm on Shore and Amirkhani as well. Shore vs Valiev is really solid matchmaking in my eyes, should tell us a lot about where Shore is at. 

Amirkhani line seems off to me. As long as Amirkhani doesn't gas or eat another crazy knee (crazy strike in general), I think he gets the W.

Paddy and Nelson ML are both crazy numbers, but with that being said, I think they both roll here. Over 1.5 in the Nelson fight @-110 is tempting.

I so badly want to bet Volkov, especially with this being a 5rd fight. But I will probably stay away from that one. I can't get the Tybura fight out of my head, and thought Volkov looked pretty "meh" in that fight.

@The_Fist

Covers won't let me create a thread, so shoutout to Paletta for letting me drop some picks in here. GL to all this weekend! These are the prices that I locked in earlier in the week, so my apologies if the lines are looking different now.

Last event Results: 2-3, +0.41u

2022 total: 18-14, +15.32u

Bets:

Hooker ML @ +105 (1u)

Amirkhani ML @ +160 (.5u)

Shore ML @ +100 (.5u)

Topuria by KO/TKO rd1 @ +600 (.5u)

Parlay: Mckenna/Topuria @ -163 (1u)

Parlay: Nelson/Pimblett/Topuria @ -153 (1u)

Super longshot parlay: Topuria by KO/TKO rd 1/Mckenna by sub rd2/Mokaev fight does not go distance @ +21261 (0.1u)

Forgot this one: Mckenna by sub in rd 1 or rd2 @+1400 (.1u)

Well done Mokaev   

Awful game plan early from McKenna. Cost her the fight 

Terrible. Shouldn't have been a split either, thought she lost all 3. 

@paletta007

 Thanks man you the best, I love the info idk how many people utilize it but I read every week, keep it up

@PatsCover279

I'm glad it helps. Lets win big today 

Amirkhani VERY slick adjustments. Well done  All the best to Grundy & his father 

Doubled down at +220 before we the fight...crazy line 

@The_Fist

 Nice hit 

adding++++ 

Herbert/Topuria over 1.5 rounds +150 - 1 unit to win 1.50 units 

Molly   

adding++++ 

Allen wins by submission +187 - 1 unit to win 1.87 units 

Should have been by decision lol lost regardless 

Small profit after a good night of fights. Will have recap tomorrow or Monday. 

Hope everyone has a good weekend  

Good job today fellas

@monkeebooger

A few missed opportunities tonight. 

1. didn’t bet Nelson over 1.5 rounds like I mentioned. Not sure why I stayed away. 

2. Taking Allen by dec instead of ML. Got greedy and it cost me.

3. Backing Volkov in hopes he would survive the early 1-2 rounds. This should have been a stay away completely. 

A night of profit is a good night, but some critical mistakes that I will look too correct moving forward. 

RECAP - 

Prelim card, 

McKenna wins by submission +500 - 0.25 units to win 1.25 units  

Shore wins by decision +200 - 0.75 units to win 1.50 units   

Krylov/Craig over 1.5 rounds -138 - 1.5 units to win 1.09 units    

Amirkhani ML +187 - 1 unit to win 1.87 units   

Main card picks, 

McCann ML -138 - 2 units to win 1.45 units  

Sato wins inside distance +625 - 0.25 units to win 1.62 units    

Pimblett/Vargas over 1.5 rounds +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units   

Volkov ML +110 -1 unit to win 1.10 units    

Parlay, 

Shore/Valiev over 1.5 rounds
Pavlovich ML
Topuria ML
McCann/Carolina over 1.5 rounds 

+113 - 1.5 units to win 1.71 units  

4-7 +0.53 units 

YTD 36-66 +2.13 units