2021- 73-97 +9.13 units
YTD 32-59 +1.60 units
Another solid event this past weekend with some great fights.
UFC returns to London this weekend, with what should be another fun night of fights
I will post write ups and insight as the week goes on. Any info and insight is always welcome from fellow UFC fans 
GL ALL 
Mokaev vs Durden
Opening fight of the night. Mokaev is only 21 years old and he is a highly touted prospect. His professional record is 5-0, but he does have a lot of amateur experience in his young career. He is a good wrestler with solid grappling. His striking is average, and at his young age is continuously improving. Durden is 1-1-1 since joining the UFC. He is also a wrestler with a relentless motor. He will throw wild shots too set up his take down attempts, and if he fails too get you down, he will chain a few attempts together until he finally gets you to the mat. Current odds have Mokaev at -350 which in my opinion is wild, especially for his debut against a very capable fighter in Durden. I like Mokaev as a fighter and he will probably win this fight, but I will sit back and watch how he handles the bright lights in his official debut on the big stage.
Reed vs McKenna
First Ladies fight of the night. Reed lost her debut last summer VIA stoppage. Mind you, she took that fight on short notice, and wasn’t at her natural weight class. She is a solid striker with good power & range. She likes too stay busy and use volume. Her grappling isn’t great, but it is there if she needs it. McKenna comes into this fight after winning On the contender series last summer, then winning her official UFC debut in November. She is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. She is an aggressive striker who likes too March forward and use combinations too overwhelm her opponent. She uses kicks well and has solid grappling and take downs. She does have good offensive wrestling and is live for submissions if the opportunity presents itself. I think the combination of her striking and wrestling, Mckenna will have the clear path to victory. Current odds have her at -250 which I think is too rich so I will most likely pass on this fight altogether.
Shore vs Valiev
This should be a really good fight. Shore is 4-0 since joining the UFC. He rely's on his grappling, and is very good at it. He likes too march forward too have his opponent backing up, and eventually work in his take downs. He does have solid kicks which is a nice asset for him. In his last fight he was only 2/8 on his take down attempts so that is something to monitor, but his opponent in that fight was a good wrestler himself. In comes Valiev who is 2-0-1 since joining the UFC. His one no contest was a KO loss too Trevin Jones, who was later busted for weed. Valiev like Shore is a good wrestler. In his last fight he did show he is a very capable and solid striker. He was 0/6 in his own take down attempts in his last fight. He has shown too slow as the fight goes on, so with two wrestlers, that has me leaning towards Shore in this fight. I think this is a very close fight, but at +105 I lean the underdog with Shore.
Krylov vs Craig
Another solid fight. Two experienced fighters go up against one another. Krylov is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He has solid striking and solid wrestling. His kicks are a real weapon and he uses his forward pressure well too get in the face of his opponent. He has good movement & he does a good job at mixing in all his different weapons. In comes the all so durable Paul Craig. A submission artist. He has very good grappling, and that is normally his path to victory, and I don't see much changing in this fight. He is a real threat on the ground, and pulls out submissions from all sorts of positions. Krylov clearly has more ways at winning this fight, but I have a hard time betting against the dangerous Craig. I don't think Ill pull the trigger on Craig, but the toughness of both fighters has me leaning towards over 1.5 rounds. I will wait and see if the odds get a bit better as the week rolls on.
Abdurakhimov vs Pavlovih
First heavyweight fight of the night. Two guys trending in opposite directions. Abdurakhimov is 40 years old and is riding a 2 fight stoppage losing streak. He is a solid boxer with decent counter punches. He does have solid wrestling, but at this stage in his career, it's hard too imagine his cardio will allow him too hold & control anyone for an extended period of time. His chin is a big question mark at this stage of his career. In my opinion he will need his wrestling to have a chance in this fight, and I just don't see him being able to control the younger and more talented Pavlovih. After a 2 year lay off Pavlovih is set too make his return. During this layoff, he did have a bunch of fights cancelled due to an injury and VISA issues, so I would assume he was training and is in good fight shape. He is riding a 2 fight stoppage win streak. He is a very good striker with power and good hand speed for his size. He has solid volume for a heavy weight, and I think he is the clear cut pick in this fight. The odds reflect that so I'm not sure how too back him just yet.
Grundy vs Amirkhani
Two guys who need wins. Grundy is 0-2 in his last 2 fights. He is a chain wrestler who is non stop in his pursuit to get the fight to the ground. Once he does, his control is pretty solid. His striking is strictly there too set up his take downs, and is not a real threat. His desire & commitment to take downs always gives him a chance at grinding out wins, even if he is the less talented fighter. Amirkhani is 0-3 in his last 3. He is much better then his record appears & is a pretty well rounded fighter. He has solid grappling & solid striking. He likes too push the pace early, which in this fight might work against him. I think he has the clear advantage in the striking, and if he comes in with a more conservative & disciplined approach he should be able too deal with the take down's of Grundy. At +165 I lean Amirkhani, I just hope he doesn't over commit early and end up on his back, which is a real possibility.
Herbert vs Topuria
Opening fight on the main card. Herbert is 1-2 since joining the UFC. He won his last fight VIA stoppage. He is a solid technical striker who likes to manage and fight at range. He has good movement and never plants his feet. He is smooth on his feet, but has a negative striking differential, which is surprising with someone as good as movement as he has. Topuria comes into this fight with a perfect 3-0 record in the UFC & 11-0 overall. He is taking this fight on short notice & moving up a weight class. He is a very well rounded fighter with a very impressive skill set. He is a good striker with solid power & very good wrestling. He is always able too adapt in his fights, which makes him a very tough opponent for anyone. Odds makers are onto this, and have him at -400 even though this is short notice and not at his natural weight class. I will pass on this fight most likely.
McCann vs Carolina
This should be a competitive fight. McCann is a tough aggressive striker who isn't afraid to make fights dirty. She has nicely timed take downs and uses them too score points when the opportunity presents itself. She is technically sound and has solid cardio too uphold her aggressive pace. She has fought some good competition in her career which should benefit her moving forward. Carolina is 2-0 in her last 2. She is a striker who has nice clinch work. She has nice elbows & knees when she can tie her opponent up which is her strongest asset. I lean McCann with the wrestling as an option, but I will wait and see if I can get closer too even money. Another option is McCann by decision.
Nelson vs Sato
The return of Gunnar Nelson. He hasn't fought in 2 years. He is on a 2 fight losing streak, and will look to get things going here. He is a solid wrestler who is always looking for take downs. He has a wide karate style stance & uses kicks too manage his distance. If he gets you down, he does have good control and heavy top pressure & ground & pound. It is always tricky taking a fighter after such a long layoff, so it will be interesting to see how he looks at weigh ins. Sato is 2-2 since joining the UFC & he is taking this fight on short notice. Both wins and losses were VIA stoppage. He is a decent striker with good power and decent striking volume. If he has you hurt or stunned, he does a good job at pouncing on the opportunity, so that is something to watch against someone who hasn't fought in 2+ years. In order to have a chance here, he needs to defend the take downs, and that is easier said then done. No way I can back Nelson at his current odds, but over 1.5 rounds at -110 seems like a solid bet. No formal bet yet, but I will wait and see how the fighters look at weigh ins.
Pimblett vs Vargas
This should be a fun fight. Pimblett won his debut back in September, and now will fight in front of his home crowd. He is a highly touted prospect in the UFC & has a lot of hype behind him. In his debut he looked solid, but did confirm what most knowledge MMA fans already knew,which is his defense needs work. He showed his wild striking style which left him vulnerable to some big strikes, which he needs to clean up if he wants to be a true contender. He does have good grappling & is pretty solid on the ground. He has nice transitions and is very aware of his surroundings on the mat. Vargas is 1-2 since joining the UFC with one loss being a DQ. He is an aggressive striker with solid power. He will throw heavy strikes looking for finishes which could cause issues for Pimblett if he decides stand and bang with him. I think if Pimblett works in some striking & grappling he should breeze to a victory, but if he approaches this fight like he did in his debut, he could find himself in trouble early. At -550 I will avoid this at all costs and enjoy this fight. I will consider over 1.5 rounds at +110, but the explosiveness of Pimblett and willingness to end fights early has me second guessing myself.
Hooker vs Allen
Co main event & this should be another solid fight. Allen is 8-0 since joining the UFC, which is pretty impressive. Odds have been moving all week, and have now settled with Allen being the slight favorite. Allen is a solid striker with good forward pressure. He has good movement with good footwork and quick hands. His take down attempts are solid, and when he gets too the mat, he does have solid submission attempts. He is good at managing his cardio & has shown to get stronger as the fights go on which is always a good thing for a fighter. Hooker is 1-3 in his last 4, in that span he has fought very tough opponents. He is returning to 145 after many years at 155, in hopes to get back on track. How will he handle the weight cut after all these years, later in his career? I think that is a real concern in this fight. He is a very good striker and has shown decent grappling over the years. He is most dangerous when he is fresh early in the fights, but is never out of a fight, and is always willing to make a fight ugly. He is long and manages range well and has solid kicks. This should be a real close fight, but all the question marks surrounding Hooker has me leaning Allen in this fight.
Volkov vs Aspinall
Main event, and like many fights on this card, it should be a good one. Volkov is an experienced heavyweight who has fought the very best in the weight class. He has very good striking with great fight IQ. He uses good volume for a heavy weight and will adapt as the fight goes on. He is very durable threw out his career and is very hard too finish. One vulnerability has been his take down defense, and that is something to watch in this fight. Aspinall is 4-0 since joining the UFC. All his wins in his career are VIA stoppage, which could play a factor in this fight if Volkov can drag the fight out. He is a really good striker with good speed for his size. He does have really nice kicks which are always an asset for him. His grappling is solid, and that might be his best option int his fight. Like the co main, the odds have been flip flopping most of the week, and have now settled with Aspinall as the slight favorite. I lean Volkov at + money in hopes he can survive the early barrage. I think the longer the fight goes the more likely hood Volkov starts too settle in.
FULL CARD - 
Prelim card,
McKenna wins by submission +500 - 0.25 units to win 1.25 units
Shore wins by decision +200 - 0.75 units to win 1.50 units
Krylov/Craig over 1.5 rounds -138 - 1.5 units to win 1.09 units
Amirkhani ML +187 - 1 unit to win 1.87 units
Main card picks,
McCann ML -138 - 2 units to win 1.45 units
Sato wins inside distance +625 - 0.25 units to win 1.62 units
Pimblett/Vargas over 1.5 rounds +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units
Volkov ML +110 -1 unit to win 1.10 units
Parlay,
Shore/Valiev over 1.5 rounds
Pavlovich ML
Topuria ML
McCann/Carolina over 1.5 rounds
+113 - 1.5 units to win 1.71 units
GL AL
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