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#1
2021- 73-97 +9.13 units
YTD 123-179 +47.52 units
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev
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#3
Lawrence vs Kakhramonov
Opening fight of the night & it should be a good one. Lawrence is 2-0 since joining the UFC. He is a non stop wrestler who has very clean and well timed take downs. He does a good job at resetting if he doesn't get the take down, and re shooting with great timing. He averages just over 9 take downs per 15 minutes which is a crazy stat. His cardio supports his non stop wrestling style which is what you want too see in a fighter with his style. In his last fight he did get hit and dropped, but showed good composure and secured a decision victory. Kakhramonov won his UFC debut VIA submission just under a year ago. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He has solid striking with a very clean and stiff jab. He has nice kicks and does a good job at using those kicks too manage range. His take down defense is solid, but it will be tested in this match up. If his take down defense holds up he could find success in this fight, but that will be a tall task against the non stop style that Lawrence fights with. I give the slight edge to Lawrence with a clear path to victory, but I want too see how these odds look closer to the weekend before making any sort of commitment.
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#4
Nzechukwu vs Roberson
Two guys who desperately need a win. Nzechukwu is 0-2 in his last 2 fights, and he is 3-3 overall since joining the UFC. He is a tall and very long fighter. His striking is decent and he does have real power in his hands. His major flaw is his lack of volume and willingness to engage his opponent. He tends to get down early in fights and finds himself fighting an up hill battle. He does have solid take down defense which he might need in this fight. In comes Roberson who is 0-3 in his last 3, all losses by stoppage. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid set of skills. All his losses are against top competition, so his road in the UFC has not been favorable. His striking is solid and he moves well on his feet. He averages just under 1 take down per fight, and in this fight it might be wise for him to come in with a balanced game plan and look to mix things up. If he does that I think he will have the advantage over Nzechukwu who is one dimensional and very conservative. I lean Roberson in this fight.
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#5
Brundage vs Gore
This should be a solid fight. Brundage is coming of his first UFC victory back in March VIA submission. He is a chain style wrestler who will look to shoot for take downs early & often. His success rate isn't the best, but he will reset and continue to shoot until he gets you down. He uses big strikes to close distance, but his striking is just average. He was rocked pretty bad in his last fight before securing his submission victory, which was an opportunistic submission. In comes Gore who lost his official UFC debut back in February. He is a forward pressure striker who carries big power in his hands. In his debut he was a little gun shy which is concerning if your looking to back him in this fight. He does have decent take downs if he decides to shoot, but his striking and power are his main asset. I think he will be the more physical fighter here, so if he can defend the take downs early from Brundage and comes in with a more aggressive game plan, he should have a lot of success in this fight. I like Gore here, but his conservative striking style that he showed in his UFC debut has me second guessing myself here. I will wait until the weekend to make a final decision on this fight.
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#6
Shevchenko vs Casey
First ladies fight of the night. Shevchenko will look to get back on track here after losing her last 2 VIA stoppage. She is a solid striker with good technique and volume. Her biggest flaw is her grappling holes and take down defense. She struggles against fighters who are able to grapple and wrestle and that is when she is at a complete disadvantage. If she is able to make this a kickboxing match she should cruise to a solid victory, but that is always a big IF. In comes Casey who won her last fight VIA decision. Style wise she is a striker with decent power. She does a good job at managing range and keeping her distance while on the feet. She has decent grappling, but her take down offense is not a real threat which could be an issue for her in this match up. If Casey had better take downs I would lean her with a clear path, but her inability to secure take downs could turn this into a striking battle, which I give the slight edge to Shevchenko in that area. I can't see myself laying -175 on her, so I will most likely pass on this fight unless I see something later in the week.
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#7
Zahabi vs Turcios
Fun match up. Zahabi is making his return after a year+ long layoff. He is a well rounded fighter who is primarily a striker. He has good power in his hands, and that was on full display in his last fight when he KOd Rodriguez in the 1st round. He does tend to be gun shy and selective with his punches, so volume is an issue if your looking to back him. His take down defense is solid, but I don't think he will have too worry about that avenue in this fight. I think it would be wise to mix in some grappling too slow down the pace of Turcios in this fight, but his take down offense isn't very effective so he could have issues here and ultimately could be the X factor in this fight. Turcios won a split decision a year ago in his UFC debut. He is a very creative fighter with a wild array of attacks. He loves to march forward and keep the pressure on his opponent, and does a great job at using volume as an asset. In his debut he was taken down 6 times and was controlled for just over 7 minutes, and still managed to land 200+ strikes, which is a crazy stat and shows how crazy his pace is. If Zahabi can have some success in the grappling department he could find success, but if not this could be a long night for him. I have no real read on this fight right now so I will pass and continue too monitor these lines as we approach the weekend.
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#8
Calvillo vs Nunes
Two ladies who will be looking to get back on track here. Calvillo is 0-3 in her last 3 & her last two losses were both by stoppage. She is a well rounded fighter who is solid everywhere, but not great anywhere. Her striking is average but she does have decent take downs with solid control if she can get on top of her opponent. She isn't the fastest fighter or the most athletic fighter but her well rounded skill set makes her a tough opponent for a lot of fighters. Her last two losses were a bad look, so it will be interesting to see how she looks coming into this fight. In comes Nunes who is 0-2 in her last 2, with her last win being back in 2018. Like Calvillo she is a pretty well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. She fights with solid technique and fundamentals and she's at her best when her opponent doesn't have 1 clear advantage. Typically she fights at 115 but she is moving up to 125 for the first time, which is worth noting here. Those last 2 losses by Calvillo were a bad look so I do lean Nunes at +130 but I'm not happy about it and I'm not ready too commit just yet.
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#9
Johnson vs Mullarkey
Opening fight on the main card. Johnson making a quick turnaround after a KO win back in May. He is a veteran of the game and has a lot of experience against top talent during his career. He is a well rounded fighter with solid striking and good movement on his feet. His take down defense is solid at just under 80%. He is capable on the mat, but his strength is his striking and I anticipate that's where he will want too keep this fight. Mullarkey is making his return after a KO loss just 4 months ago. He has solid grappling with improved striking. He has power in his hands and if he is able to get on top of you he has solid top pressure with very solid ground and pound. I think Johnson will have the advantage in the striking & if he is able too avoid the grappling of Mullarkey he could find some success. At +200 I think Johnson has some value in this match up with him coming off a solid win & Mullarkey making a quick turnaround after a rough KO loss. I will monitor these odds as the week progresses, but I lean Johnson here.
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#10
Vanderaa vs Sherman
Two heavyweights who need a win to get back on track. Vanderaa is 0-3 in his last 3 fights. This will be his 3rd fight in just under 5 months, so he has been very active. He is a grappler by trade, but since joining the UFC he has become a striker. He has a nice jab, and does a good job at managing range in his fights. His best asset is his volume and he does a good job at keeping the pressure on his opponent. He does have decent wrestling, but doesn't turn to it very often. In comes Sherman who is 0-4 in his last 4 & 1-5 overall since joining the UFC. He is a striker and like Vanderaa he uses volume as an asset. He throws non stop strikes and marches forward, but with that style comes consequence which is very poor head movement and defense. He is hit with just over 6 significant strikes per minute which is horrible if your looking to back him. Vanderaa is sitting at -200 which is fair in my opinion, but I can't bring myself to paying that price in a sloppy heavyweight fight. I do like the double chance bet Submission/Decision for Vanderaa at +175. I will monitor these odds and make a final decision on Saturday.
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#11
Andrade vs Nurmagomedov
Fun match up here. Andrade is 2-0 in his last 2, both wins VIA stoppage. He is 6-4 overall in his UFC career and has fought some top competition during his career. He is a well rounded fighter with solid striking and good power for the division. He does have solid BJJ, but prefers to strike and make the fight dirty. He is at his best when he closes distance and stays in the face of his opponent and keeps the pressure on, but in this match up that might be a tall task. Nurmagomedov is 4-1 since joining the UFC. He is a creative and very advanced striker. He manages range very well and has a very impressive 5-2 striking differential. He has nice kicks and mixes them in very well into his attack. He does have solid take down defense at 79%. I think the movement and striking defense of Nurmagomedov will be too much for Andrade in this fight and he will control the exchanges and frustrate the more powerful Andrade. I will back Nurmagomedov here, I just have to decide how.
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#12
Borralho vs Petrosyan
Co main event, and this should be another solid fight. Two guys who won there UFC debuts after coming off the contender series. Borralho is a very good grappler, and he showed that in his debut. He has a good ground game with very slick submissions and good control when he gets you down. He is patient and works from 1 position to the next very well. He does have improved striking which he showcased last fight, and has nice kicks in his bag of tricks. Petrosyan won his UFC debut VIA decision, which was his first decision win of his career. He is a kick boxer with clean striking and uses volume and output as an asset. He will welcome pressure from his opponent, then does a good job at at returning big shots of his own. His take down defense is just average, but he has shown good ability to work back to his feet and has shown to have solid submission defense. He does land just over 8 significant strikes per minutes which is a very impressive stat. Odds-makers have Borralho as a -250 favorite which is wide in my opinion, but he will have the clear advantage on the ground, and he will get take downs in this fight. I think the X factor will be how Petrosyan deals with those take downs, and how well he does working back to his feet. I see some value in Petrosyan, but betting on a guy who could be fighting off his back for long periods is not something I like doing. I will wait and see how the odds look later in the week.
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#13
Dos Anjos vs Fiziev
Main event, and this one is interesting. Dos Anjos is an aging veteran of the game, but finds himself on a solid 2 fight win streak. He won his short notice fight back in March of this year, and he looked very good in that fight. He is a grappler with loads of experience threw out his career. He isn't just a grappler, he has clean striking with good volume and fights with a good pace. He does a good job at using his striking to lure his opponent into the perception of a striking battle, then shoots nicely timed take downs. He is well aware of his surroundings and does a good job at exploiting his opponents weaknesses during a fight. In comes Fiziev who is 5-1 since joining the UFC. He is a Muay Thai style striker who is very slick on the feet. He has slid volume and real power in his hands. He mixes in kicks and has solid combinations. His take down defense is solid and improving & I'm sure that will be tested at some point in this fight. His cardio has been questioned in his short UFC career, but in his last fight he fought into the 3rd round and found himself a KO. This is a 5 round fight against a very experienced fighter, so his cardio could come into question once again if he cant find a finish early. I lean Fiziev inside distance at +225 but Dos Anjos has me second guessing myself in this spot. I will wait and see how the market reacts on Saturday before making a final decision on this fight.
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