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Who likes SILVER?

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Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #76
Vermeer,

someone else already posted the bullish gold argument cut and paste earlier in the thread.

What the price of oil "should" be?

Well tell me what the price of NG is relative to oil?

The China argument is relevant at this point in time, but I really think China is going to implode on itself, they are not able to contain what is developing and things are progressing so quickly that the only end is for a massive popping of their bubble and it will happen.

I think fair value of oil without manipulation and speculation is in the 40 range, that seems to be where real supply and demand would intersect if the futures and commodities theft were not occurring.

Are we going to do anything about it before it is out of control?

Probably not..


 
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Posted: #77
Wall

How do you get to that figure? (Not a rhetorical question: I mean what stats are you looking at to derive that number?)

 The Chinese would be delighted to corner ALL oil if they could pay such a tiny sum, and they would benefit by ridding themselves of their dollar reserve problem.



 
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:

 

you have basically made my point for me. If the whole world collapses, things besides gold are going to be worth way more.

If i had food, clothing, guns, bullets, fuel, etc etc am certainly not going to trade them for gold bars.  Am gonna trade for other things that i need to live and gold bars wont be one of those things. 

 

what if you break your arm and need a doctor someone to fix it?  Or your A/C is broken?

 

It's nice having the essentials like food, water, shelter, and clothing.  But somewhere down the line, you will need things or services from other people.  Who are you going to pay for those things? 

 
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Posted: #79
I think that actually might be high..shocking I know but if we are speaking pure supply and demand, no artificial shifting of the demand curve (actually the supply and demand intersecting to make price really has no part of this since OPEC is an ologopoly and the futures and commodity interference) I think if oil wasnt able to be manipulated and if all supply and demand were transparent and known, I think 40 and lower would be more reflective of actual pricing.

When oil crashed, that was one of the only times in a decade that futures manipulation was out of the equation and real supply and demand dictated pricing...so for months after, that price was reflective of our current economic demand.

I also think that China has no idea how to handle the monster which is developing in their economy, they manipulate and try to control which will have longer term effects, they will crash without a doubt..not if but when.

 
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Posted: #80
I agree with you regarding China, but things can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent.

The problem of what oil "should" be priced at is unanswerable to me because of OPEC. You are not dealing with a market, as you noted. Supply is completely capricious, and reserves overstated, especially by Saudi Arabia.

I am not sure that "real supply" exists or existed even during the crash you cite. No one really can rely on the stats provided by the Saudis, OPEC or any other producer...

 As for precious metals, the other element that is n ot dependent on inflation as a reason for holding them is the looking likelihood of sovereign defaults I think they are more likely than a future China implosion.

 
 
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Posted: #81
As the empire declines...

"The Wall Street Journal reports that in nominal terms, i.e., in U.S. dollars, the past calendar decade [i.e., 2000-2009] sports the worst stock market performance in two centuries of recorded stock-market history. U.S. Treasury bonds in 2009 delivered their worst year on record. According to data back to 1927 from Ibbotson & Associates, the 30-year U.S. T-bond lost 26% last year... Likewise, the 10-year T-note lost 9.7% in 2009, also the worst return on record.
 
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Posted: #82
I just dumped BIG today sold out all my original capital I'll let profit ride.  Wish I sold a week ago as I knew writing was on the wall when I started arguing w/ strangers on a MB.  Congrats to all the shorts .
 
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Posted: #83
I forgot to mention last week Cramer start screaming to buy Gold and Silver obviously he and his buddies were going short. I'll look to average back in on weakness.
 
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Posted: #84
Paper = commodity

Interesting theory.....stock up on Toilet paper all you doomsdayers!



 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by DAWGPRINT:

Paper = commodity

Interesting theory.....stock up on Toilet paper all you doomsdayers!




Exactly That's why we prefer metals to the toilet paper currencies.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #86

the only thing i dont understand is this...everyone is talking about gold and silver stocks.  If everyone is investing the us dollar in them and the us dollar falls to $0.  Technically what are your gold and silver stocks going to be worth?......$0.   Tell me where im wrong?

 
MVP
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by jrizzlefopizzle:

the only thing i dont understand is this...everyone is talking about gold and silver stocks.  If everyone is investing the us dollar in them and the us dollar falls to $0.  Technically what are your gold and silver stocks going to be worth?......$0.   Tell me where im wrong?



when people talk about the "US dollar falls to $0", it is a misnomer. For the USD to become worthless, it will mean that no amount of USD's will buy you goods/services.

and it's the entire reason why people get into PM's

first it took 200 USD's to buy an ounce of gold
then it took 800
then 1200

now 1400

soon it will take more then 2000 USD's to buy an ounce of gold. At that time, you might assume that oil will be back over 150 and the cost of everything you buy will have at least doubled. That's when the dollar falls to zero, is when the price of all goods and services when priced in dollars gets to the point where it doesn't make sense to trade in them any longer

The Melt Up
 
Legend
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Posted: #88
check out this one.  Just signed a JV agreement with Agnico Eagle
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by jrizzlefopizzle:

the only thing i dont understand is this...everyone is talking about gold and silver stocks.  If everyone is investing the us dollar in them and the us dollar falls to $0.  Technically what are your gold and silver stocks going to be worth?......$0.   Tell me where im wrong?



Stocks in a worthwhile company will never go to 0.  The relative value is a mind game though.  Everybody sees the Dow go up over decades and concludes that equities are the holy grail.  We have been fed that line of bullshit for decades now.  The simple truth is that if you devalue the Dow for inflation and taxes, you are left with 1.7% over the long haul.  The Dow is based on the value of stocks which are valued by the USD.   Think about it.

The Dow will continue to soar as the dollar melts down.  Yes its almost an undeniable fact that the USD will eventually be worthless, it is inevitable.  No fiat currency in the history of man has ever lived for more than 100 years.  The USD will be no different. 

You can buy Ford stock today for about $17.  I would venture to say that this stock will be worth maybe $300 in a few years, with no splits.  Are you a winner?  Not when it costs $100 for a cup of coffee.  The stock market averages are a huge scam, and 99% of people buy into the scam.
 
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Posted: #90
competing currencies render the dollar useless.

as BE said, in early 08, i gambled on the insolvency of the US Treasury (TBT) and bought SLV and RJA (silver and a Jim Rogers commodity index)

ive averged up on SLV and down on RJA but its all working out nicely. have been buying silver eagles as well over the past year

there's more than meets the eye to the silver run up

forcing a TBTF bank to cover an insane short position will push the metal up. gold v silver have historically traded at 30:1 (read that somewhere a while back...at 50:1 now or close to it)
 
MVP
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Posted: #91
forcing a TBTF bank to cover an insane short position will push the metal up. gold v silver have historically traded at 30:1 (read that somewhere a while back...at 50:1 now or close to it)

17:1 or 18:1 is an estimation of the amount of each metal to physically exist on this planet

oddly enough, when currency's are born/reset, they magically reset to a ratio in the range of 18:1 arena

when i joined the discussion on this board, the ratio was about 66:1. I did one gold trade and after it spiked, traded the gold for silver. I still like Ag to continue to make the Au camp our bitch moving forward, but i am done buying
 
 
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Posted: #92
Wish I had more of it.  Losing 99% of my stack in that awful boating accident did not help 
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