I am no fan of W Bush, at all, but I agree that this current economic catastrophe is NOT all his fault.
W Bush inherited a mess from Bill Clinton, for sure.
And oh yeah, I agree wholeheartedly that Barack Obama's plans/ policies are horrifying to anyone remotely versed in the most rudimentary of economic fundamentals.
In 40 days, Barack Obama is well on the way to being the worst president in the history of the USA------won't be shocked if that "charismatic" individual resigns before his term is up----his "stimulus package" was literally that pathetic and stupid.
I think the biggest issue is his need to move on to the next problems before the current problems have been fixed. He is talking about massive tax hikes on all income levels (ignoring the loaded term of 95% tax returns). Taxes (direct or indirect) are going up on energy, healthcare, income, capital gains, dividend, increase interest rates and almost everything else will act as a drag on the economy.
I don't think people would disagree with the need to raise taxes to address the debt that will be incurred over the 2007-2010 time period but raising taxes during what is likely the worst recession since the 30's isn't probably a winning formula right now. I think the markets would be much more inclined for Obama to talk about not taking these steps until growth returns. I think he feels the stimulus plan will do that - I have my doubts and that a year from now people will be calling for additional stimulus.
Given that GDP shrank by 6.2% last quarter and could be worse this quarter (January was an absolutely awful month) you will see over 10% contraction of the US economy over the last 6 months (add in that the stimulus package was half that) you should be scared.
I feel for my daughter given the amount f'n that is going with the economy right now.
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:
KOAJ-
I am no fan of W Bush, at all, but I agree that this current economic catastrophe is NOT all his fault.
W Bush inherited a mess from Bill Clinton, for sure.
And oh yeah, I agree wholeheartedly that Barack Obama's plans/ policies are horrifying to anyone remotely versed in the most rudimentary of economic fundamentals.
In 40 days, Barack Obama is well on the way to being the worst president in the history of the USA------won't be shocked if that "charismatic" individual resigns before his term is up----his "stimulus package" was literally that pathetic and stupid.
I think the biggest issue is his need to move on to the next problems before the current problems have been fixed. He is talking about massive tax hikes on all income levels (ignoring the loaded term of 95% tax returns). Taxes (direct or indirect) are going up on energy, healthcare, income, capital gains, dividend, increase interest rates and almost everything else will act as a drag on the economy.
I don't think people would disagree with the need to raise taxes to address the debt that will be incurred over the 2007-2010 time period but raising taxes during what is likely the worst recession since the 30's isn't probably a winning formula right now. I think the markets would be much more inclined for Obama to talk about not taking these steps until growth returns. I think he feels the stimulus plan will do that - I have my doubts and that a year from now people will be calling for additional stimulus.
Given that GDP shrank by 6.2% last quarter and could be worse this quarter (January was an absolutely awful month) you will see over 10% contraction of the US economy over the last 6 months (add in that the stimulus package was half that) you should be scared.
I feel for my daughter given the amount f'n that is going with the economy right now.
I don't think people would disagree with the need to raise taxes to
address the debt that will be incurred over the 2007-2010 time period
but raising taxes during what is likely the worst recession since the
30's isn't probably a winning formula right now. --------- so if raising taxes during a recession is bad, why is it an ok idea during good times
i never understood this logic
abolish the IRS...give us our money back
I don't think people would disagree with the need to raise taxes to
address the debt that will be incurred over the 2007-2010 time period
but raising taxes during what is likely the worst recession since the
30's isn't probably a winning formula right now. --------- so if raising taxes during a recession is bad, why is it an ok idea during good times
Most have heard this, "behind every good man is a good woman" or something to that effect.
I can tell you with unequivocal certainty that this farking "Michelle Obama" is no good for anyone. And anyone that thinks that Mr Barack isn't totally influenced and pulled by this atrocity of a woman is naive.
Here is some of the reality......
Most have heard this, "behind every good man is a good woman" or something to that effect.
I can tell you with unequivocal certainty that this farking "Michelle Obama" is no good for anyone. And anyone that thinks that Mr Barack isn't totally influenced and pulled by this atrocity of a woman is naive.
Yeah, Koaj, this woman is no good----and unfortunately for all of us, she is married to the president of the USA and holds great power over his decisions.
The only thing, and I mean ONLY thing positive about the direction of this country is the fact that basically 9 out of 10 people with any intellect couldn't be more negative. Other than that, the future is 100% bleak and nasty.
Yeah, Koaj, this woman is no good----and unfortunately for all of us, she is married to the president of the USA and holds great power over his decisions.
The only thing, and I mean ONLY thing positive about the direction of this country is the fact that basically 9 out of 10 people with any intellect couldn't be more negative. Other than that, the future is 100% bleak and nasty.
I don't think people would disagree with the need to raise taxes to address the debt that will be incurred over the 2007-2010 time period but raising taxes during what is likely the worst recession since the 30's isn't probably a winning formula right now. --------- so if raising taxes during a recession is bad, why is it an ok idea during good times
i never understood this logic
abolish the IRS...give us our money back
My point was simple that the spending we undertaken over the last year (along with other spending) that needs to be addressed. It has to come somewhere outside of just printing money.
I also beleive the government should be run like a household. In good times you squirrel away money for bad times or pay down debt. When the country is booming, the government should increase its cut to pay down its debt (not spend which I know wouldn't really happen but one could hope) so that we aren't in the situation we are in right now appropriately organized trillion dollar stimulus or fund to buy bad assets would completely destroy the debt to GDP ratio.
i am definitely a starve the beast type person but inflation is going to be a big issue much sooner than anyone wants to face.
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
I don't think people would disagree with the need to raise taxes to address the debt that will be incurred over the 2007-2010 time period but raising taxes during what is likely the worst recession since the 30's isn't probably a winning formula right now. --------- so if raising taxes during a recession is bad, why is it an ok idea during good times
i never understood this logic
abolish the IRS...give us our money back
My point was simple that the spending we undertaken over the last year (along with other spending) that needs to be addressed. It has to come somewhere outside of just printing money.
I also beleive the government should be run like a household. In good times you squirrel away money for bad times or pay down debt. When the country is booming, the government should increase its cut to pay down its debt (not spend which I know wouldn't really happen but one could hope) so that we aren't in the situation we are in right now appropriately organized trillion dollar stimulus or fund to buy bad assets would completely destroy the debt to GDP ratio.
i am definitely a starve the beast type person but inflation is going to be a big issue much sooner than anyone wants to face.
Further, I believe that private capital is much better weapon to fight a recession than government spending and keeping money in the hand of private market will allow for job creation but if taxes are raised during a recession it limits a person's ability to make take those entrepenurial efforts.
Further, I believe that private capital is much better weapon to fight a recession than government spending and keeping money in the hand of private market will allow for job creation but if taxes are raised during a recession it limits a person's ability to make take those entrepenurial efforts.
that would be all fine and dandy IF "private capital" was investing BUT the whole damn "private sector" is SCARED SHITLESS right now and SITTING on ANY cash they have.
go to a bank and see IF you can get a loan right now. the same jerkoffs that were throwing $$$ at people with that probably couldn't repay two years ago NOW won't give a nickle to companies with a perfect credit history.
that would be all fine and dandy IF "private capital" was investing BUT the whole damn "private sector" is SCARED SHITLESS right now and SITTING on ANY cash they have.
go to a bank and see IF you can get a loan right now. the same jerkoffs that were throwing $$$ at people with that probably couldn't repay two years ago NOW won't give a nickle to companies with a perfect credit history.
that would be all fine and dandy IF "private capital" was investing BUT the whole damn "private sector" is SCARED SHITLESS right now and SITTING on ANY cash they have.
True. But I think it is more a factor of the complete indecision and lack of a plan by DC. If they set up a set of rules, even if they were ones that no one liked, and didn't change them daily depending on how the political winds were blowing, it would go a long way to building some confidence on Wall Street. right now, the Geithner is letting plans slip out every week or so and seeing if the market likes his plan.
Inaction right now is the worst thing the government can be doing and it is doing exactly that. I wish the would get it over with and set up a bad bank and starting buying this crap - like the RTC. The government is the only person out there that can buy this stuff and sit on it and not worry about quarterly statements or mark-to-market. When the inpending inflation wave hits it can then sell these assets at minimal loss or even gains. While I understand the talk of nationalization of bad banks, I think the unforeseen consequences in the CDS market would be too unpredictable to allow this to happen which is why it is never going to happen (much less the inability for the FDIC to take over banks aspects that don't fall with the auspices of FDIC overview - like asset management).
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:
that would be all fine and dandy IF "private capital" was investing BUT the whole damn "private sector" is SCARED SHITLESS right now and SITTING on ANY cash they have.
True. But I think it is more a factor of the complete indecision and lack of a plan by DC. If they set up a set of rules, even if they were ones that no one liked, and didn't change them daily depending on how the political winds were blowing, it would go a long way to building some confidence on Wall Street. right now, the Geithner is letting plans slip out every week or so and seeing if the market likes his plan.
Inaction right now is the worst thing the government can be doing and it is doing exactly that. I wish the would get it over with and set up a bad bank and starting buying this crap - like the RTC. The government is the only person out there that can buy this stuff and sit on it and not worry about quarterly statements or mark-to-market. When the inpending inflation wave hits it can then sell these assets at minimal loss or even gains. While I understand the talk of nationalization of bad banks, I think the unforeseen consequences in the CDS market would be too unpredictable to allow this to happen which is why it is never going to happen (much less the inability for the FDIC to take over banks aspects that don't fall with the auspices of FDIC overview - like asset management).
Too late now, but it is pretty damn obvious that Bernanke/Pauslon/Bush/Obama/Gheittner should've just stayed the fcku out of this and let the market run its course.
Sure it would've been bad, but a hell of a lot better than what we got now.
Crashes and failures are part of any capitalist business cycle----they should be expected and accepted.
Bailing out all these bad companies was wrong, wrong, wrong.
And before anyone says "hindsight is 20/20," it is well documented on this board that I have been dead against bailout packages since subprime broke in Aug '07.
Too late now, but it is pretty damn obvious that Bernanke/Pauslon/Bush/Obama/Gheittner should've just stayed the fcku out of this and let the market run its course.
Sure it would've been bad, but a hell of a lot better than what we got now.
Crashes and failures are part of any capitalist business cycle----they should be expected and accepted.
Bailing out all these bad companies was wrong, wrong, wrong.
And before anyone says "hindsight is 20/20," it is well documented on this board that I have been dead against bailout packages since subprime broke in Aug '07.
right on clay...i think you and i may have been the earliest doom and gloomers...but fuck it; we were realists then
the main issue in all of this is confidence IMO. do you trust markets, banks, balance sheets? i dont. not yet at least. once more do than dont we will have a rally
right on clay...i think you and i may have been the earliest doom and gloomers...but fuck it; we were realists then
the main issue in all of this is confidence IMO. do you trust markets, banks, balance sheets? i dont. not yet at least. once more do than dont we will have a rally
Case in point---back in mid November '08, I think the "bad financials" ETF (SKF) was like 250ish? 3.5 months later, with an even more hideous market on top of even more horrific fundamentals, that same "SKF" is like what, 170ish?
I was wondering about that too BUT I beleive they paid out some big either capital gain or dividend style distributions which has reduced the price.
The daily leveraged etf's are all losers in the long run. For example, DIG/DUG oil double long and double short were both losers last year. If you are going to get into any of them they should only be for short term trades.
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:
Case in point---back in mid November '08, I think the "bad financials" ETF (SKF) was like 250ish? 3.5 months later, with an even more hideous market on top of even more horrific fundamentals, that same "SKF" is like what, 170ish?
I was wondering about that too BUT I beleive they paid out some big either capital gain or dividend style distributions which has reduced the price.
The daily leveraged etf's are all losers in the long run. For example, DIG/DUG oil double long and double short were both losers last year. If you are going to get into any of them they should only be for short term trades.
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